Forex Trading System 96 Vinnare Och Whiners

Online handel i guld i Fiji. Den våta säsongen är mellan november och april, vilket också är när orkaner och cykloner sannolikt inträffar medan torrsäsongen är mellan maj och oktober. Genomsnittliga temperaturområden i Suva är från 20 till 26 grader Celsius 68 Till 79 grader Fahrenheit i augusti till 23 till 30 grader Celsius 73 till 86 grader Fahrenheit i februari Online handel i guld I Fiji är binära alternativ Legitima kartläggning Boka dina flyg till Fiji med Flight Center och njut av en tropisk ö semestern Vår billiga flyg till Fiji gör Bokar din semester enkelt och prisvärt Gold Coast till Fiji Ytterligare bokningsavgifter kan gälla för onlinebokningar Flight Center Travel Group Limited handlar som Flight Center ABN 25 003 377 188 ACN 003 377 FOLKAR De inhemska fijianerna som är en blandning av melanesiska och polynesiska står för 49 Av befolkningen Landet består av 844 öar och öar, varav 105 är bebodda med 90 av befolkningen som bor på de två största öarna V Iti Levu och Vanua Levu Markanvändning 65, betesmarker 10, jordbruksodling 14, övriga 11 1993 KLIMAT Fiji har ett tropiskt klimat med en våt och torr säsong. Flodmark finns där floder har bildat deltas och det finns fertila slätter längs Kuster Täta tropiska skogar täcker östra sydöstra sidan av öarna medan korallrev omger de flesta öarna. Online handel i guld i Fiji som nyhetsvolatilitet påverkar Forex Digicel-mobiltelefoner. Fiji Prepaid Mobiltelefoner, ringsignaler, telefonplaner Nokia, Blackberry, Samsung och mer Cell Phones Dome s värde har ökat med 50 sedan notering, vilket är en prestation på de senaste svåra marknaderna för yngre upptäcktsresande Dome Gold Mines Literacy lägst befolkning i åldern 15 år eller över 87 0 1986 MODERN HISTORIA - andra världskriget till 1993 Fiji förblev en brittisk koloni tills Sin egen begäran, det fick självständighet som en konstitutionell monarki inom Commonwealthen i oktober. Sedan självständighet har regeringen uppmuntrat turism och Utvecklingen av tillverknings - och skogsbruksindustrin 1987 Rabuka utsåg en president och återvände Fiji till civilt styre under en interimistisk regering. HUVUDPRODUKTER Bananer, kassava, kakao, kokosnötter, koppar, fisk, ingefära, guld, boskap, ris, socker, sötpotatis , Timber, Tobacco Boka dina flyg till Fiji med Flight Center och njut av en tropisk ö semestern. Våra billiga flyg till Fiji gör att du bokar din semester enkelt och prisvärt Gold Coast till Fiji. Ytterligare bokningsavgifter kan gälla för online bokningar Flight Center Travel Group Limited som flyger Centrum ABN 25 003 377 188 ACN 003 377 De rådande handelsvindarna blåser från öst för det mesta av året och den genomsnittliga årliga nederbörden varierar från 1,780 mm 70 tum till 2,030 mm 80 tum. Litteratur att köpa Forex Yekaterinburg. De främsta etniska utomjordingarna är Indianer som utgör 46 av befolkningen Infant Mortality Rate 27 0 per 1000 levande födda 1989 Online Trading In Gold i Fiji Även om indianerna kontrollerar Ledde mycket av fijianska ekonomin, traditionellt har fijianerna haft mer makt i regeringen I juli 1990 utarbetades en ny konstitution som garanterade den inhemska fijianska politiska makten STORA INDUSTRIER Jordbruk, Cement, Fiske, Livsmedelsförädling, Skogsbruk, Mining, Färg, Socker Raffinering, Handelssignaler Gratis Digicel Mobiltelefoner Fiji Förbetalda Mobiltelefoner, Ringsignaler, Telefonplaner Nokia, Blackberry, Samsung och flera mobiltelefoner SPRÅK Det officiella språket är engelska som talas av de flesta av befolkningen, även om Bau är en dialekt av de inhemska fijianerna Också mycket talat och Hindustani talas också av indianerna Deltal On Forex Review Boka dina flyg till Fiji med Flight Center och njut av en tropisk ö semestern Vår billiga flyg till Fiji gör bokning din semester enkelt och prisvärd Gold Coast till Fiji Ytterligare bokningsavgifter kan tillkomma Till online bokningar Flight Center Travel Group Limited som Trading Center ABN 25 003 377 188 ACN 003 377 UTBILDNING Åldrar 25 eller o Ver och har inte uppnått någon formell skolgång 28 3, primär 19 1, ofullständig sekundär 44 1, sekundär 4 1, högre 4 4 ​​1986 Ekonomiskt aktiv befolkning 241 160 eller 33 7 av den totala befolkningen 1986 HUVUDSÄLJANDE PARTNERS De viktigaste handelspartnerna är Storbritannien, USA, Australien, andra EU-länder, Nya Zeeland och Singapore. De flesta öarna är av vulkaniskt ursprung och är i allmänhet bergiga och robusta. Täta tropiska skogar täcker de sydöstliga vindöarna av öarna medan korallrev omger de flesta öarna Online Trading In Gold I Fiji Bästa Binary Options Mäklare Uk 100 Vinn De viktigaste floderna på Viti Levu är Rewa, Sigatoka och Ba est Suva 69.700, Lautoka 28.700, Lami 8.600, Nadi 7.700, Ba 6.500 1986 Online handel i guld i Fiji Andra etniska minoriteter inkluderar européerna Som står för 1 medan en annan är kinesisk livslängd vid födelse 68 3 år man, 72 8 år kvinnlig 1988 RELIGIONER Nästan alla inhemska fijianer är kristna och kristna Räknas för omkring 53 av befolkningen, varav 85 är metodist och 12 är romersk-katolska förra året det kombinerade värdet av fiji s handel med australien och ny i kölvattnet av våra rugby sevens guldmedalj vinnande prestanda på språken det officiella språket är Engelska som talas av de flesta av befolkningen, även om Bau en dialekt av de inhemska fijianerna också talas allmänt och Hindustani talas också av indianerna. LOKATION 40 personer per kvadratkilometer 105 personer per kvm 1991 Åldersskillnad 38 under 15, 29 15 till 29, 18 30 till 44, 10 45 till 59, 4 60 till 74, 1 75 och över 1989 Omkring 38 av befolkningen är hinduer och 8 är muslimer, vilka båda är tro på den fijianska indianska befolkningen Em Que Investir Dinheiro Na Bolsa De Cabo Verde Hoje Rabuka avgick därefter som arméchef och gick med i regeringen. Samma månad hade premiärminister Mara, som ledde landet sedan självständigheten, förutom en kort period 1977-1987, avgått från politiken 1992, premiärminister Rabuka För en regering av nationell enhet med målet att förbättra de växande politiska och etniska avdelningarna, även om få framsteg gjordes EKONOMI Bruttonationalprodukt USD 1 266 000 000 1993 TRANSPORT Tåglägen ruttlängd 595 km 370 mi 1990, passagerar-km NA last ton-km NA Fordon Bilar 40 253 1990, lastbilar och bussar 27 589 1990. Vilken tid kan jag handla binära options. Trade binära alternativstjärnor tjäna 89 vinst i 60 Sec. Ft Forex History Rates. Algeria börsen News. Binary Options strategi för Forex.24hr binär option övning. Bunkar av stål. Eftersom denna patetiska blogg stämmer överens med makroekonomer som är besatta av penningpolitiken, i motsats till vad de flesta faktiskt bryr sig om, låt oss komma till er. Det är trots allt ännu en gång och bankerna har just lanserat ett nytt lån Krig att suga i jungfrur Så, var går priserna. Därefter lite, faktiskt Då är det nu lite tvivel om vad de kommande månaderna kommer att medföra. Strax kämpar bankerna för mark En andel på en marknad som krymper Fastigheter har varit saggy i 80 av landets regioner, medan det släpper ut i två andra. Inte konstigt, med råvarupriser som cirkulerar avloppet, inkomsterna stagnerar, arbetstillfällen skjulas och medborgarna smittas i skuld. Som jag Berättade på måndag, timmar innan kriget bröt ut, skulle detta ta ett femårigt fast räntehemslån till en ny nivå som långivare raktes till botten Nu har vi ett ord från framsidan av 2 5 fiver, 2 variabler och 3 69 tenn. Självklart, om elfin gudom fortfarande var hos oss, så var det jäklar av päls och blodplottar över borden på Bay Street-tornen F gjorde det klart att snittet, teaser, special-deal, come - Hushållsräntor på låga priser var dåliga nyheter eftersom de uppmuntrade skuld, uppblåsta hus och skadade familjer. Men hans wimpy efterträdare skulle hellre gömma sig än kamp. Faktum är det kvar att premiärministern själv gjorde en kommentar på onsdagen Sa den stora gudomen Jag säger inte att jag är orolig Men vi tittar på det Vi planerar inte att Ta omedelbar åtgärd Vi fortsätter att titta på bostadsmarknaden och låne - och låne situationen mycket noga. Vi har tagit några steg under de senaste åren för att kyla marknaden något. Han nekade inte att vara orolig. Han utesluter inte åtgärder, bara omedelbart Åtgärd Mest betydande sa han att regeringen hade något avkyld marknaden och det ser på. Det låter som om det finns något som kommer i budgeten, nej. Låt oss obsessera med Fed för några meningar. De amerikanska centralbankscheferna kom fram från deras Nyligen möte för att bekräfta amerikanska räntorna kommer att stiga 2015, som jag sa att de skulle Den första ökningen kan vara i juni om sysselsättnings - och inflationsuppgifter är rimliga, eller i september om det inte är. Hursomhelst, det händer Generellt Tro är att räntorna kommer att stiga ungefär en halvtimme i år och sedan justeras som berättigad till oändlighet. Här är nyheterna detta är slutet på den mest aggressiva lösenpengeperioden under det senaste århundradet som centralbanken har e Xisted Inte bara var priserna skjutna in i gräset, men Fed har spenderat några trillionsköpobligationer och på annat sätt pumpar likviditet i ekonomin för att få den tillbaka från randen av 1930-talets kollaps som väckte i 2008. Kool det är över första Det massiva 85 miljarder kronor per månad obligations-snorfling-programmet avslutades i höstas och i år kommer räntesatser att höjas Detta är ett grundläggande skifte i penningpolitiken som jag hoppas ingen saknar Fed sönder sitt jobb att försöka rädda ekonomin genom att ge Bort pengar och återupprätta sin roll som domare Det kommer fortsättningsvis att långsamt öka priserna som löner, priser och ekonomisk aktivitet stiger för att innehålla inflation, och det vilar när jobbsansättning behöver en hiss eller dollarn måste regeras i Men borta för nu är superbankmandatet Ingen cape Strömpar Inga bullar av stål. För kanadensare är det ingen motståndande Bank of Canada kommer att följa med som det alltid har. Det kan inte vara före årets slut, men det S komin G Att misslyckas med att agera skulle vara att offra dollarn, importera inflationen och öka misärsindexet. Det skulle också bränna mer konsumentskuld och eftersom vi alla bevisat att vi inte längre kan lita på pengar är det en enorm risk för Framtiden. Vem som helst frågade onsdagskvällen om det gett allt som hänt om det var vettigt att ta ut en 10-årig inteckning Du kan göra en av dessa poäng för ca 3 6 Och medan din kurs snitsas i sten i ett decennium på grund av Canadas räntebärande hypotekslån blir fullt öppet efter fem år Så om priserna skulle vara lägre så kan du betala av det utan straff. Men jag har svårt att förstå hur det kan vara möjligt. Det är bara en riktning för kostnaden för Pengar som den globala återhämtningen fortskrider, USA expanderar, Europa går tillbaka på sina fötter och Kina går ut ur ekonomisk ungdom Under de kommande fem åren kan räntorna lätt fördubbla. Folk som lånar nu vid 2 7 kommer att förnya mer än 5 om de är mycket Lycklig. Så vad skulle jag göra om jag var n Tillräckligt för att köpa 2 miljoner Midtown Toronto House Jag hyrer för 3.800 i månaden och betalade inte pengar. Ta tag i Cheapo femåriga Spring Special Eller betala en extra 1 för inga överraskningar fram till 2025. Väl, jag går faktiskt variabel för 2 och Investera varje extra dollar i en robust balanserad portfölj som förväntas växa 50 vid förnyelsestid Men det är jag Det är inte de vuxna som läser den här bloggen. För dig är det ett unikt ögonblick. Lås upp det.257 kommentarer. 1 ole Doberman på 03 18 15 på 6 44 pm.1st och för riktigt den här gången. 2 Saul Leibowitz på 03 18 15 på 6 44 pm. Alla tittar på följande oljebladskarta, uppdaterad idag. Nu, som kanadensare, berätta för mig hur du inte är intresserad. Oljelager är skyrocketing. Detta kommer att leda till fortsatt Kasta i råa priser, vilket kommer att kratera kanadens ekonomi och dollar, enligt min mening. Jag kommer att köpa fastigheter om vi ser negativa räntor i Kanada. 4 Leroy Washington på 03 18 15 på 6 45 pm. Kanadensare är väldigt dumma när det gäller pengar och investerar. Långt bor USA. 5 Skuld s Mörk Fira på 03 18 15 på 6 50 pm. Tala om dig Få över det Inga signifikanta räntehöjningar till kanske 2020 Kanske inte ens då. Som jag sa till dig, ökade amerikanska räntor i 2015 Hämta över det Garth. when sakerna skruvas , Gör ingenting. Du hörde det här först. För kanadensare är det ingen motståndande Bank of Canada kommer att följa med som det alltid har. För mig meddelar Fed-meddelandet att banken i Kanada har något utrymme att genomföra ytterligare två sänkningar och sedan Långsamt följ USA från och med då Det skulle vara mest oklokt Garth. Garth, du låter nästan som om du saknar Flaherty Frånvaron gör hjärtat att växa fonder och allt det. Den här låga CAD-skadorna gör att min man s har sett margin försvinner på produkten Köpt från USA Svårt att göra en vinst utan att överföra det hela till kunden, som också bara eking ut ett levande som all oljeplasterrelaterad nedslagsaffär, men bara torkar upp. Så skulle vi betala av våra inteckningar Nästa år med bara en sista bonus inte längre. 9 Dominoes Lining Up 03 18 15 på 6 57 pm. Saul Leibowitz 2.Din oljebildskarta är ganska intressant Som Hilliard MacBeth sa i veckan på CBC hade de två senaste kanadensiska fastigheterna nästan perfekt samband med oljeprisfallet och Råa inventeringar av det förflutna. Det här diagrammet visar tydligt 1990-toppen, som också perfekt korrelerar med den senaste fastighetsolyckan här. Och 2015 på diagrammet ser mycket, mycket mer dramatisk ut. Det kan knappast vara något tydligare vad vi går in i . 10 Tydlig Sanning på 03 18 15 på 6 58 pm. Vem älskar inte mormor yellen. Varje gång hon besöker ger hon ut pengar. Klassisk pengar från mormor Gömmer sig i hennes hand. Om hon var bredvid mig, skulle jag ge henne en kyss på kind. 11 sidlinje sitter på 03 18 15 på 7 02:00. Oh hur jag önskar att dessa priser var tillgängliga på kommersiella fastigheter jag skulle älska att förnya vid 2 79. Marknadsoperationer experimenterades med i Fedens 1920-tal sjuka 7 år har i stort sett upprepat samma synder från det förflutna den här gången är det annorlunda globala skuldkrisen rakt framåt. 4 Leroy Washington på 03 18 15 på 6 45 pm Kanadensare är väldigt dumma när det gäller pengar och investerar. Långt bor USA. Du låter bittert mot mig Som vi alla väntar på en krasch borde ha köpt flera egenskaper och åka Vågen i stället för att krascha av tsunami av specuvastors som klart är vinnarna. Efter allt har vår gov visat tid en gång igen, de är villiga att göra någonting för att stötta slutet. 14 Sideshow Rob på 03 18 15 på 7 07. Sörja ingen hastighet höjningar när som helst snart Den matade pratar skräp eftersom prata är allt det s har Europa sönderfaller 6 månader från nu kommer det att bli mycket värre som kommer den amerikanska ekonomin De kan inte Höja ränta Nollbunden Den ironiska delen när räntorna stiger i ett år kanske det blir obligationsmarknaden som gör det och vid en tidpunkt då den matade vill ha det minst Crappy tid att vara centralbanker Höj priser och dollarn blir ännu starkare Som blåser upp alla tillväxtmarknader som lånas i amerikanska dollar. Don t höja priser och förlora all trovärdighet. Tyvärr Janet, men du är på fel sida om historien. Den ångande väskan som Bernanke lämnade på ditt skrivbord var inte lunch. Jag är skuldfri, Utan hypotekslån och rentfri Don t till och med är skyldig ett nickel på mitt kreditkort eftersom jag betalar ut balansen varje månad, jag har inte en kredit - eller billån. All min inkomst är fria kassaflöde Så räntesvingningar är en Stor gäsp för mig. Jag brukade vara en stad-bostad condo-äger kor Porat slav och en inkomstskatt-betalande vägen raseri, latte suger, stressad utlåning serf då jag äntligen fick reda på hemligheten till livet Det heter Freedom 35 En finansiell plan som jag själv utvecklat och det är alla juridiska och etiska Och Jag behöver inte skotta 50 cm snö den 18 mars och nej, jag gjorde inte gifta eller ärva en stor hög. Men du vill inte veta om det. För att inte agera höja räntorna av BoC efter en Amerikanska räntehöjningen skulle vara att offra dollarn, importera inflationen och öka miseryindexet Garth. Today jag mashed upp några kartor på kanadensisk detaljhandel med och utan bilar och den kanadensiska handelsbalansen och nuvarande konto. Det verkar verkligen som en Trenden mot elände. Diagrammen föreslår att produktiva kanadierare redan har spenderat sina framtida vinster och likviderar sina besparingar, eftersom Kanada s exporthandel blir översvämmade av högre importkostnader på låg CAD. Mina känslor exakt kanadensiska val kommer upp Garth säger att det är oklokt men Garth tänker på Vad som är bäst för kanadensare. Power Financial ökar utdelningen med 6 4, först på över sex år. 19 Tålamod Nej Mer på 03 18 15 på 7 13 pm. Yellen Fed kan ha tappat tålamod idag, men när räntorna börjar gå upp senare i år, kommer Horny House Virgins ha förlorat något mer dyrbart oskuld. 20 Interstellar Old Yeller på 03 18 15 på 7 14 pm. Garth, något ord på hur ditt avskedade exec granners hus gör. Har det listats. Jag m gissar med att hämta hypotekslån som dessa, nu skulle det vara dags. Du INSANE Den kanadensiska dollarn är redan på 70-talet mot amerikanska dollar. Om vi ​​skär två gånger, och de lägger till två gånger. Vår dollar kommer att ligga under 50c och falla. Den inflation som orsakar skulle vara enorm. Om inkomsterna är platta, Varför hyror himmlar rocketing Jag förstår att hyresvärdar måste täcka sin galen mtg betalning men hur är det som folk betalar jag m blir besatt av att bygga ett litet hus och plunking det i min väns bakgård lol. Nice post Garth Vi lever faktiskt I mycket intressanta tider. Jag tror att du kommer att bli korrekt och Fed kommer att hamna ökade priser i år Inte säker när men jag skulle satsa på det händer snarare än inte. Bara en fråga med USA: s federala skuld på 18 biljoner, Tillsammans med 95 6 biljoner i oförutsedda skulder Skulle inte Fed göra en enorm misshandel till USA: s regering genom att uppge räntorna. Till högre räntor kunde inte USA sluta misslyckas med skulden. Förklara varför varför inte. Globala återhämtning lol Tack för skrattet. 25 Drop to Drink på 03 18 15 på 7 23 pm. Jag sa att Dow skulle lägga 500 för veckan efter Fed-meddelandet Halvvägs där Beklagar folk, ingen ränta ökar i år De vill att kursen undertryckande försvinner varaktigheten som matchar för Försäkringsbranschen och pensionsplanerna Marknaderna går upp ytterligare 10 i år. Sträva efter avkastning och flyta krympa som återköp kryssning längs med att köra marknaden. Fabulous. Bara att veta när man ska komma ut. Men jag tvivlar på att vi får se 5 4 räntor igen i mina Livstid men ändå ensam i 5 år. Mars 20th 2020 skickar jag dig en låda med hundens behandling för din pooch om jag är fel. 27 Skuld s Mörk Fira på 03 18 15 på 7 28 pm. Tala om dig Få över det Inga betydande takter höjder till kanske 2020 Kanske inte ens då. Som jag sa till dig, ökade USAs priser 2015 Gå över det Garth. Yah yah du Har sagt att i hur många år nu kommer inte att hända under din livstid. Låt oss dock obsessera med Fed för några få meningar b. De amerikanska centralbankscheferna kom fram från deras senaste möte för att bekräfta att amerikanska räntorna kommer att stiga under 2015, eftersom jag Berättade att de skulle b Den första ökningen kan vara i juni om sysselsättnings - och inflationsuppgifter är rimliga, eller i september, om det inte är. Hur som helst händer det. Den allmänna troen är att räntorna kommer att stiga ungefär en halv punkt i år då Justeras som berättigad till oändligheten Du missade ditt samtal Garth, det här är sånt som bäst lämnas för fastighetsmäklare. Vill du höja priserna och höja dem är det inte samma sak. Vad jag hörde Janet säger idag var en stor fetma kanske. LOL Garth Sätt dina pengar där din mun är om du är så säker på att priserna är wi Ll stiga korta obligationer Sätt alla dina pengar på det och ladda upp skärmbildet så att vi vet att du fick bullar av stål. Också de sa aldrig att de skulle öka priserna. De ändrade sin verbålder och tog bort ordet tålamod. Kanadaobligationer 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 åriga utbyten är nu 0 48, 0 73, 1 32, 1 92, 1 97. Patetiska, ultra låga priser som fortsätter att komma tillbaka månad efter månad. Dessa priser var dubbla för 5 år sedan och även om de skulle Matcha dem tillbaka igen om 5 år, det är bara att komma tillbaka till var de var. Jag är säker på att de inte kommer att komma nära dessa men om de gjorde det kommer de att släppa tillbaka igen. Dessa med 2 5 till 3 00 inteckningar som Skulle behöva betala på 3 5 till 4 75 inteckningar skulle vara tillfälliga som i 12 till 18 månader skulle de vara i 3 00 till 3 5 områden igen. De som köpte ett 500 000, 600 000 hem kommer att bli brända från alla fastighetsskatter, el , Värme, vattenräkningar, försäkringar, reparationer och underhåll, HST etc innan de betalar extra 300, 400, 500 per månad. T condos är i verkliga problem med 500 i månaden är bara den genomsnittliga condo avgiften i Toronto och det kommer att bli 1000 på bara 10 år. Allt annat kommer att göra fastigheter oöverkomliga inte räntor. Rätt nu är jag säker på att Fed har alla avsikt Av höjningstakten vid något tillfälle i år Men så vad deras syn kan lätt förändras om de börjar se tecken på desinflation Yellen nämnde specifikt att den starka dollarn trycker ner inflationen och löneinflationen är dämpad Hence hennes linje om att vara beroende av data De reprognoserar Behovet av räntehöjningar men en prognos och ett löfte är inte samma sak. Vi är alla ganska rädda, men vi Garth. 32 mitzerboy aka queencity kid på 03 18 15 på 7 33 pm. Vi gör så bra i Saskatchewan att vi bara lånat 700 miljoner åh, inte igen, var gick alla saskaboom pengarna. De matade vill höja räntorna sååå dåligt men jag Tvivlar på det för 2015 Per Zero Hedge Varför är stocken stigande som svar på Fed-uttalandet och senaste uppsättningen prognoser Eftersom, som Bloomberg snabbt beräknat, reviderade FOMC ner alla prognoser för 2015 sedan den föregående SEP släpptes den 17 dec. The median dot För årsskiftet 2015 faller till 0 625 från 1 125 i december en jättestor 0 50 cut. And det går inte bara återhämtningen men någon överhängande räntehöjning. Den centrala tendensen för BNP i år är 2 3 -2 7 vs 2 6 -3 Men den riktiga hammaren var 2016 och 2017 dessa var bara snedstreckade från 2 5 -3 0 och 2 3 -2 5 i december till 2 3-2 7 och 2 0-2 4 Arbetslöshet 5 0-5 2 vs 5 2 -5 3 Fed ser nu PCE-inflationen på 0 6 -0 8 Detta var tänkt att vara 1 -1 6 för bara tre månader sedan Core PCE 1 3 -1 4 vs 1 5 -1 8 och den ena I de flesta fall såg punktpunkten att medianpunkten för 2016 sjönk till 1 875 vs 2 5 och sjönk till 3 125 från 3 625 för 2017. Räntenivån stiger priset på de flesta tillgångar kommer att gå ner Räntorna fungerar som allvar för att Tillgångspriser Det enda undantaget vore utvalda finansinstitut Försäkringsbolag, icke-kanadensiska banker och kontanta rika företag som AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, JNJ etc med liten eller ingen skuld Det är dags att vara selektiv. 35 everythingisterful på 03 18 15 på 7 36 pm. Jag hittade slutligen hemligheten till livet Det heter Freedom 35 Men du vill inte veta om det Låt mig gissa, flytta till en liten skitstad och panorera för guld eller växa Organiska potatisar-du är rätt, vi don t. 15 Lillooet, BC på 03 18 15 kl 07 07 Jag är skuldfri, inteckningslös och utan hyror Don t till och med är skyldig en nickel på mitt kreditkort för att jag betalar ut balansen varje månad jag inte har en rad Kredit eller bil lån antingen All min inkomst är gratis pengar du vill inte veta om det Åh gör byte berätta klokt hur det görs. 5 Skuld s Mörk Fira på 03 18 15 på 6 50 pm Fortfarande ya Komma över det Inga signifikanta räntehöjningar till kanske 2020 Kanske inte ens då Wow En annan guru med en kristallkula. Om du kan förutsäga ekonomiska gyrationer och de efterföljande Fed-åtgärderna Och reaktioner 5 år ut, borde du inte ha några problem att välsigna oss med aktiekurser nästa month. C mon Ge oss 5 av dina bästa picks. Om inkomsterna är platta, varför hyr himmelrocketing. Jag har frågat detta om Vancouver sedan Mitten av 80-talet När jag gick in på college, visste jag utan tvekan att jag aldrig kunde ha råd med ett hem i Lower Mainland. Jag har bevisats rätt under de följande två decennierna. 39 Finland är FINNISH på 03 18 15 på 7 51 pm. Jag insåg inte att IRD-straffet går bort efter fem år Det är fantastiskt Jag tog en 7 år fast ja ja 2011 som träffar femårsjubileum nästa april Någon fick en Föreslagna handlingsåtgärd för då Lånet är under 100k om det gör någon skillnad Variera, gå med ett 1-2 år fixat eller något annat. 40 Pensionerad Boomer - WI på 03 18 15 på 7 57 pm. Kongrater, kära damen Att leva livet du vill ha DEBT FREE är vad den stora planen ska vara för de stressade. Väl gjort frihet För det första delar jag och andra här en liknande Outlook tror jag. Alla är glada två försöker instruera de som är stressade, men det finns relativt få här det verkar De flesta verkar vara bra och välsigna dem, livet är bättre på det sättet. Alla sminkar upp sig själv hur de ska Live Vår blogg värd har lämnat oerhört underbar visdom genom åren Men ingen har någonsin perfekt vision för imorgon, vi kan vanligtvis reagera med nåd, och hjälp ska den verbala botten falla ut. Vi återhämtar oss, som Flaherty. 42 Pensionerad Boomer - WI på 03 18 15 på 7 59 pm. OOPs Lillooet, BC. Jag sa Kära Lady Jag kanske väl är fel där, bra gjort ändå, förlåt min faux paus. 43 margin försvinner den 03 18 15 på 7 59 pm. My mans s-företag har sett margin försvinner på produkten köpt från USA Svårt att göra en vinst utan att överföra det hela till kunden. Din man ska sälja delar till bostadspannor för Kunder som inte är beredda att ta kanadensisk vinter utan uppvärmning. Gåmarginalen är 100 på delar, som vanligtvis inte säljs till inköpskunder i Kanada. I USA är det naturligtvis en annan historia. Om du på något sätt magiskt delar källan , Servicemanen vägrar att installera den för dig i Kanada som berättar med rakt ansikte, eftersom vi inte kan ge garantier på det som om det inte var tillverkaren att ge garantin på delar. Det verkar som att vissa industrier i detta land fortfarande arbetar Som om det var 1980-talet och fåren kanadensiska kunder misslyckas med att släcka dem. Din man borde sälja panndelar utan diskriminering till den som vill betala för den. Med 50 margin skulle han vara den 1 säljaren i Kanada. 44 Andrew Woburn på 03 18 15 vid 8 02:00. 23 Tidigare Fool på 03 18 15 på 7 20 pm. Bara en fråga med amerikanska federala skulden på 18 biljoner, tillsammans med 95 6 biljoner i oförutsedda skulder skulle inte Fed göra en enorm misshandel till USA: s regering genom att uppge räntorna Vid högre räntor kan USA inte sluta med skulden. Förklara varför varför inte USA inte låna pengar för att finansiera verksamheten, det skriver ut pengar. Det utfärdar obligationer mm för att dränka över pengar och andra strategiska ändamål. Utfärda skuld i sin egen valuta kan aldrig gå i konkurs Om du vill ha dina pengar tillbaka, kommer de att ge dig det Det kanske inte går att köpa så mycket som det brukade i gamla tider kallade de detta avtagande myntet. 45 showen måste gå på 03 18 15 vid 8 06:00. 14 Sideshow Rob på 03 18 15 på 07 07. Den ångande väskan som Bernanke lämnade på ditt skrivbord var inte lunch Sideshow, det är roligt lol men sant Bernanke bailed före TSHTF. 31 Balmuto Kanske kan du förklara för oss vad som är disinflation. 47 Drill Baby Drill på 03 18 15 på 8 12 pm. Inflationen har redan importerats sedan dollarn sjönk förra året. 48 Andrew Woburn på 03 18 15 på 8 14 pm. Det kan vara en enklare förklaring till Saudis villighet att se priser glida än en attack på amerikanska skalen eller ett politiskt tomt mot regional rivaliserande Iran, trots en förändring i den saudiska vyn på topp Oil. En några månader tillbaka lyssnade jag på ett CBC-program med en del Hill Hill-journalist som skrev en bok om vad som händer där. Han ansåg att Harpers idé är att göra det till en vana för kanadensare att konservativa är regeringspartiet Just Som liberaler hade sina löpningar. Hans strategi är i mycket noggrann balansering mellan sin egen dagordning och majoritetens åsikt. Han gör i princip alla förändringar i 1000 små steg som skulle vara nästan omöjliga att ångra och i slutändan skulle leda till hans syn på Kanada . Å ena sidan, bostäder kollapsa Å andra sidan överdriven upplåning, pensionsfond underskott, inflation. Kan inte lösa detta Den enda lösningen för vår Zeus är att skjuta upp så länge som möjligt. 50 GTA Observer på 03 18 15 vid 8 18 pm. 22 Sue Om inkomsterna är platta fodrar, varför hyr himmlarna, jag förstår att hyresvärdar måste täcka sin galna betalning, men hur mår det att folk betalar. Var är det här Ljud som en riktig obalans i utbud och efterfrågan färre hyror, fler hyresgäster Hyran är vanligtvis avgränsad av inkomst, och det går inte upp. Bostadsmarknaderna blir allt snedvrider. 51 Drill Baby Drill på 03 18 15 på 8 24 pm. Oil Marknadssignaler som indikerar kommande aktiemarknaden kanhem enligt min mening är följande. Fortsättning av sänkta oljepriser över utbudet oljebranschen skräp bond kollaps börjar hända bank lagerfall inte på oss ännu. Alla tre av dessa som sker i tandem kommer att sätta allvarligt nedåtriktat tryck på Wall strret. Nope Energy är en relativt liten del av amerikanska marknaderna Garth. cash rika företag som AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, JNJ etc med liten eller ingen skuld. Dessa företag kan Vara rik på pengar, men de lever enormt till konsument - och statsbudgetar. Båda kommer att vara avsevärt stoppade i spåren om räntorna skulle öka väsentligt. Även försäkringsbolag i en högre räntesatsning skulle drabbas av stora förluster på deras långfristiga obligation Portföljer och aktier som är korrelerade med sådan överflödig avkastning på lågrisk tillgångar som långfristiga räntebärande medel har ökat förmögenheten hos försäkringsbolag och pensionsfonder överallt. Om räntorna är r Det är viktigt att det du vill investera i är företag som kräver stora mängder kapital som redan har investerat. Sådana företag, som verktyg, gruvarbetare mm kommer att ha en enorm priskraft i en sådan miljö. Ta en titt på S P500 de senaste 35 åren Hitta sin genomsnittliga avkastning över det intervallet Hitta nu vilka branscher som har överträffat de senaste 35 åren och hitta de sektorer som har underperformat. Du vill investera i tidigare underperformatorer, inte de bästa företagen, för en stigande räntel environment. I några sanna ögonblicken är jag fortfarande blåst bort om genialidén att ladda pengar på pengar, tryckt ut ur den tunna luften. Jag önskar att jag var den som uppfann den. Jag kan verkligen tänka på någon mer tilltalande idé, jag kan inte föreställa mig Något bättre sätt att tjäna pengar oändligt Jag tror verkligen att detta måste vara mänsklighetens största uppnåelse nu, i det förflutna och för resten av framtiden som fortfarande ligger framför oss som världens främsta synliga arter. Jag tycker att den mest unfo rtunate mistake and injustice ever occurred is that the genius minds behind this great idea never received even a post-humus Nobel prize What a shame. At least I am thinking of them with the greatest admiration every time when the head of the Fed, who is in charge of articulating today, for all of us around the world the wisdom of the genius minds of charging interest of money printed on thin air. I feel utterly honored that I have the chance to use and take the blessings of this amazing idea that leaves us in debt, with no hope that our words can ever properly describe the genius minds. Garth, The Canadian dollar was up 1-1 5 cent against the US today The Dow was up 300 points after the Fed s statement It appears the interpretation by the financial world is the the US rates are not going up any time soon They may want raise the rates, but the deflation pressures exported from Asia and now from Europe with much weaker Euro, it may not happen for a long time. Markets were up today after bei ng down prior to the announcement Traders covering their butts on speculation, buying on news Means little Garth. 5 Debt s Dark Embrace. The idea that Canada will not follow suit as the US rises rates is far fetched I believe that they are sweating bullets thinking of the various factors at play e g personal debt levels, exports, etc More proof that economies cannot be managed by central planning committees. It is sad that our governments learned nothing from the 20th century Distributed systems are more robust and adaptive that centralized ones, as any student of the internet knows We should have competing currencies, no central banks, no moral hazard e g bank bailouts. Indeed, it is good to be a central banker Garth s claim that the Fed spent trillions is questionable, as it conjures up an image of them shipping trillions of dollars of their hard earned cash reserves or gold or some other asset In reality, it is entries on an electronic ledger. the genius minds behind this great idea never received even a post-humus Nobel prize. I think you mean posthumous Post-humus conjures up images of researchers getting handed bags of decomposed soil. 57 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03 18 15 at 8 49 pm. 15 Lilloette A financial plan I developed on my own, and it s all legal and ethical. You eat, drink and sleep THIS. 58 mike in kelowna on 03 18 15 at 8 52 pm. Garth your buddy Benjamin Tal get scmucked by Peter Schiff on BNN this evening What a goof. 59 Obvious Truth on 03 18 15 at 8 53 pm. As the day gets closer the deniers get more testy They hard for any sliver of justification. Canadian data was awful again That inventory chart looks like the one garth posted on oil. Fed don t care Rates will slowly rise It s now a matter of just months Read the release Very simple language Business and households to provide the tailwinds. Really good news For everybody. 60 Babblemaster on 03 18 15 at 8 54 pm. There goes the Fed once again Saying nothing and bluffing big time No more patience, though So, are we to ASSUME a rate rise Yes, but it depends So, yeah, OK, there could be a rate rise. What total BS this whole charade is Instead of a rate rise, there ll probably be another QE That s what Schiff says and I believe it. BTW, you know what happens when one assumes. Garth do you think this will be passed in the next budget. Member of Parliament Irene Mathyssen introduced Bill C-282, An Act to amend the Excise Tax Act feminine hygiene products , on October 16, 2013.Sign The Petition NO TAX ON TAMPONS. 62 seeing it from both sides on 03 18 15 at 8 59 pm. Have you succumbed to ads I m getting ads popping up as I scroll the comments And ad tags attached to select words like Bank, Invest, Again etc. Not me Garth. 63 Drunk Actuary on 03 18 15 at 9 01 pm. 52 Mark Insurance companies, likewise, in a higher rate environment would suffer large losses on their long-term bond portfolios and equities correlated to such Excess returns on low-risk assets such as long-term fixed income has boosted the fortunes of insurance companies and pension funds everywhere. As an actuary working for a large canadian insurer I can tell you this is false Decreasing interest rates hurt insurance company and increasing interest rates help them Yes the bond portfolio of insurance companies take a hit with higher yield, but these bonds are used to back the reserve that they need to hold for claim payments, and these reserves decrease at the same rate the bond value decrease So insurance companies, when interest rates move, don t have much gain or loss of capital on bonds because of the same move in liabilities, but they benefit greatly from the higher monthly interest payments of a higher rate environment. Don t believe me Look an any chart of any canadian insurer you know in the first half of 2013 when rates raised Manulife, GreatWest, Industrial Alliance. 64 TurnerNation on 03 18 15 at 9 05 pm. Smoking man vs Gartho on interest rate calls I took oil today. Garth, You got it backwards it is buy on rumors and sale on news. 66 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03 18 15 at 9 07 pm. Rates will raise this year, guarantee it Perhaps third quarter but Garth is correct Sorry kiddies the free ride is over Oh it s going to be hell out there with all of the minions of house horny overstuffed people saying WTF happened Karma baby. as the global recovery progresses, the US expands, Europe gets back on its feet and China moves out of economic adolescence. Hmmm wouldn t be relying too heavily on any ONE of these, let alone all four Wow. 68 Andrew Woburn on 03 18 15 at 9 10 pm. 2 Saul Leibowitz on 03 18 15 at 6 44 pm Everyone take a look at the following oil inventory chart, updated today Oil inventories are skyrocketing This will result in a continued plunge in crude prices, which will crater the Canadian economy and dollar, in my opinion. It is not fun but remember this is a US storage problem, not a world price problem Brent crude is 56 not 44 The US just finished a strike that cut out 20 of its refinery capacity and more capacity was down for overhaul This is the major reason that gasoline prices in BC and California are up Summer driving season is about to start. US rules don t let refiners export gasoline Under the circumstances is it likely that the US government won t give at least temporary export permits It s going to be tough in Alberta but if I were the oil minister of say, Venezuela, I would be more worried. Banks are going to milk you like a cow Computers project your actions before you even know Low interest rates now high interest rates later scr ewed But but but. 53 blown away on 03 18 15 at 8 30 pm. The ancients understood that the game, when society became too depraved debauched had to be reset thus the jubilee The Romans took a different approach though, as the debts fell into private hands and not the state, they chose war to settle accounts We re going to have a war, but what will anything be worth once the mushroom clouds have receded That s the question. Well I had a great day, my son, not so good, I m thinking about banning him from Trading He s out of control. Last night we had a talk, it was to early for me to read into fear and greed I Got a good feeling the FOMC was going to be in a bind, USD so high it s hurting the recovery, the CEO of Galap poll said Labour stats are funded But then I was worried Yellen might give a shit about her ego More than the recovery. So I said to my son, no trading today, I told him I suspect the USD might lose a cent or so But on these types of days you can get wiped out in Milli seconds. What I dident know o r check he had two sells on USDCAD I trusted he was natural. After I closed out my 2 million in profit, I log into his account. Good news is he s up 20k for the day. Bad news he l took a huge hit when he got out, just as I was loading up Had he not caved he would have made 250k he should set some stops the negate a out. Why I m pissed, he should have let me know he wasn t natural. I can t baby sit him. One more chance I m thinking He caught the slidder perfectly, exited to early Dident fallow rules. Because he was rattled with the big hit, he was happy to get out with a win. That s not how you do this. Not often you get a 4 big number move in one day. You guys know where the pic is. Now it s time to drink. I think you mean posthumous Post-humus conjures up images of researchers getting handed bags of decomposed soil. After your colorful description I like this better than the pale word of choice that my broken English misspelled in a miserably funny way How about just calling it a Freudian slip. Gar th, or anyone, Can you explain this. Oil is 100 bl Gas 1 35 Oil 50 gas 90 Oil 43 gas 1 20 Is this care of being screwed or as I expect Rape I never even got a kiss That to me means RAPE. Yup, fed will likely raise interest rates in the fall, not this summer, admit it. Even Yellen admits stock valuations are on the high side, that means they have been that way for a long time. 76 Massive Layoff on 03 18 15 at 9 28 pm. Well Alberta has been in denial but this week has done much to put some reality on the table with huge layoffs being reported One thousand jobs snuffed in just one day in Calgary For those who were laid off in Calgary on Tuesday morning there is no more denying that low oil prices will not impact their lives Within one three hour period using a very conservative wage loss, Calgary just had 50,000,000 00 removed from its economy Significant. Canada, you say It is what it is, and there is no there there. 15 Lillooet, BC on 03 18 15 at 7 07 pm. With all due respect, there are many others on this blog who have accomplished everything you have and more and didn t have to move to a tiny remote town to do it. But they don t post nearly every day to remind themselves of how smart they are. You have been right about a lot of financial bench marks over the past year I truly hope our economy will support increased interest rates over the next five years However I truly don t see interest rate increases as you do. Over the next five years rates could easily double People borrowing now at 2 7 will be renewing at more than 5 if they are very lucky. More likely they will be renewing at 5 than 5. 80 Alberta is FINISHED on 03 18 15 at 9 37 pm. 81 The real Kip on 03 18 15 at 9 44 pm. So now we have to look to Mr Harper for guidance Is that some kind of joke Oh well, it can t possibly be worse than Janet Yellen and her parade of idiots. More likely they will be renewing at 5 than 5.Doubtful If the economy really gets that bad that rates go that low, then risk premia for the most indebted borrowers, residential retail borrowers, will likely blow-out. Lots of people lost their houses in the 1930s on account of foreclosure Not because policy rates were high they weren t , but rather, because they had negative equity and the bank refused to roll their balloon mortgages on account of poor credit-worthiness Balloon mortgages being the types of mortgages that are nearly universal in the Canadian landscape.1st and for real this time. That s a GOOD doggy Sit Dobey, sit That s a good boy Ok, see this stick I m going to throw it way over to the other side of the internet Fetch Dobey, fetch. 64 TurnerNation on 03 18 15 at 9 05 pm Smoking man vs Gartho on interest rate calls I took oil today. Dude, Garth is smart, safe wiegthed smart basterd, his problem, he s pretty straight shooter, and assumes that the feds, the stats people are as straight as him So he goes with the schooled prospective. Hence he s not always right Puts to much faith in institutions, and accepted hiarcky. I know the machine is one big lying mafia Takes one to know one Hence I have an advantage. GARTHS Balanced approach works, works well but boaring and slow. Rabbit and Turtle. He s got to stop being so trusting It s hard, he s got an obidance certificate. Oil is 100 bl Gas 1 35 Oil 50 gas 90 Oil 43 gas 1 20 Is this care of being screwed or as I expect Rape I never even got a kiss That to me means RAPE. Decreasing volumes due to a significantly weakened economy mean that the margins have to be made up somewhere And governments haven t cut back their take on taxes Remember also that much of Canada has been utiliz ing oil-sands derived feedstocks which were already severely discounted to WTI Brent even before the oil price collapse started. With as much deflation as appears to be occurring at the moment, the public should be clamouring for massive reductions in public sector compensation and spending But unfortunately they keep voting for fools like the Wynne government. Even in Saskatchewan today, the government brought down a budget claiming a 100M surplus, yet debt is going to rise 1 6B YoY Just how the politicians can make such claims with a straight face is beyond me. 86 Drill Baby Drill on 03 18 15 at 9 56 pm. The layoffs that make the headlines here in Calgary ie Suncor, Nexen, Conoco, Talisman etc are small compared to those suffered by the service industries In Engineering alone in the past 18 mths there have been 5000 let go and counting This does not include, drillers, fab shops, suppliers, truckers, welders etc It truly is bad and getting worse I have been in this business for 35 yrs and it will be as bad as the mid eighties downturn. Actually I really do want to hear all about it Where did you live before moving to Lillooet. 88 Washed Up Lawyer on 03 18 15 at 9 59 pm. Having been educated to the point of being useless, I cannot understand the jump in oil prices today Makes no sense in the absence of real data and news. Tunis, Tunisia Instability in a country between Libya and Algeria Instability is good for the price of oil. I will leave the analysis of the machinations of oligarchs and the MIC to Dr Smoking Man. 89 Drill Baby Drill on 03 18 15 at 10 00 pm. I remember the dollar sales in 1985 87 whereby an antiquated law allowed Albertans who were underwater on their mortgages to sell their home to a speculator who then rented it out for up to a year or more before the sheriff kicked the renters out. If I had to choose between. Option A being a mortgage slave for 40 years, shoveling snow for 8 months of the year, and having to commute one hour into work every day for the rest of my life. Option B living in Lillooet, BC. I would obviously choose Option A. GT, you ve been quiet in recent weeks on a tory increase of the TFSA limit to 11K, yet some months ago you were regularly waxing poetic about it. Revised predictions Tx. They killed the budget Garth. The Decline of Vancouver. That s the 13th time this anti-immigrant drivel has been posted here I expected more of you Garth. Garth your Rosy outlook on the markets is not justified by Denninger s standards and he makes some good points in regards to todays ac tion s big investors running from one side of the ship to the other on the whim of the Fed soon it will all capsize. There was one lesson today from the FOMC decision. The Fed downgraded their economic forecast The market, in response, shot up 50 handles on the S P and four hundred DOW points from where it was before the announcement. What this tells you is, quite simply, this. ALL of the market s upward move is a consequence of uneconomic decisions made by firms. It is not due to growth. It is not due to organic profits. It is not due to an improving economy. It IS due to borrowing to buy back stock and other leveraging games, all of which are Ponzi schemes. And this will end exactly as it did in 2000 and 2008, Larry Kudlow s chortling notwithstanding. 94 Andrew Woburn on 03 18 15 at 10 09 pm. 63 Drunk Actuary on 03 18 15 at 9 01 pm As an actuary working for a large canadian insurer I can tell you this is false Decreasing interest rates hurt insurance company and increasing interest rates help them. Thanks for the info Is it true that lifeco s are gaining profit from increased lifespans or was that already basically factored into premiums. Woman is all I m saying. I get home a bit late, had a few pints at the Duke. The Nazi wife, at the door, you bastard, why you home so late, she says. Had beer, and a massage, my back was sore Hey I made 2 million today I reply. You F basterd, the snow melted there is a mountain of cigarette buts, your cleaning that up now She demands. I pull out the shop vac and suck them all up As she supervises Meanest face going. You have a ashtrays every where, why do you do this year after year. I said I don t know And she storms into the house. So I think about it I figure it out, there is nothing more satisfying than taken a cigarette that s down to the filte r You place it between your tumb and middle finger and launch it against the fence. You watch it get smashed to pieces, it s a very weird form of satisfaction Destroying the thing that s destroying you. I have problems I know. Honey Senica tomorrow night. Ah she s smiling again. RE 62 seeing it from both sides on 03 18 15 at 8 59 pm Garth, Have you succumbed to ads I m getting ads popping up as I scroll the comments. Check your browser for unwanted Add Ons Run a malware scan, etc Your machine has been compromised. 92 Grantmi on 03 18 15 at 10 03 pm. The Decline of Vancouver. That s the 13th time this anti-immigrant drivel has been posted here I expected more of you Garth. Sorry Garth I must be in SM mode My sincere appoligies Too many martoonies. The rate suppression in wrecking the duration matching for the insurance business and pension plans. Yup That s why rates MUST rise Insurers are Wall Street bankers too. Imagine a bailout of AIG x 100 across North America and Europe. Impossible There is too much downside risk if they postpone rate hikes much longer. I remember the dollar sales in 1985 87 whereby an antiquated law allowed Albertans who were underwater on their mortgages to sell their home to a speculator who then rented it out for up to a year or more before the sheriff kicked the renters out. A few credit union issued mortgages may be still like that in Alberta, but for the most part, lenders aren t at risk of that happening again and impairing their books. Having said that, yes, my family did ac quire one of those houses in Edmonton at the time The attached mortgage was written out in the name of an obviously foreign-sounding name, and the mortgage lender was more than thrilled to allow us to assume it. The current regime, where the mortgage lenders will simply put the paper to the CMHC if it defaults, rather than deal with assumptions and dollar sales, guarantees a much different landscape than we saw in the 1980s though Liquidation will be far more rapid and violent I predict than the relatively slow melt experienced in the 80s and 90s for Alberta RE. 43 margin disappear on 03 18 15 at 7 59 pm. Why can Americans buy boiler parts that are only available to Canadians through licensed tradesmen. In most of the US states save for Mass any handyman can install and service your gas or oil boiler In fact is common to have the local carpenter do it. Very few trades are certified through apprenticeships and written licenses either You show up for the interview and explain that you know about high voltage electrical switchgear or high pressure natural gas steam boilers or whatever skill is required, then you start work that day. Not to say the US does not have some of the most highly skilled tradesman in the world Just they have a wild west of certification. Now which system do you prefer The one where anybody can but boiler parts at wholesale and install them ad hoc or where you pay a markup usually 33 on the part and have a licensed, insured and safety audited contractor sell and install it for you. As an actuary working for a large canadian insu rer I can tell you this is false Decreasing interest rates hurt insurance company and increasing interest rates help them. That s assuming that the insurers invest in short term paper which most generally don t on any significant basis Insurers are the quintessential long-term conservative investors in the economy Insurers over the past few decades, like most financial institutions, have enjoyed excess returns by prolonging the duration of their investments Products such as life insurance and annuities inherently require insurance companies to invest for the long term Products are priced at the coupon rate, but capital appreciation arising from such long-term bond investments have largely accrued to the shareholders and employees of the insurers. Of course, such isn t sustainable what the bond market giveth, it will eventually taketh as interest rates eventually flat-line and normalize over time Which means that insurance companies will not benefit. 102 Sheane Wallace on 03 18 15 at 10 28 pm. there will be no interest rates increase in Canada, I am absolutely convinced as can t afford it The CA dollar will be destroyed. Our economy can t handle interest rates increase as we use near zero interest rates to pile on debt, not to pay it. Ca dollar at 40 cents, simple as that, if not CMHC will blow off. 52 Mark Insurance companies, likewise, in a higher rate environment would suffer large losses on their long-term bond portfolios and equities correlated to such Excess returns on low-risk assets such as long-term fixed income has boosted the fortunes of insurance companies and pension funds everywhere. Unlikely, for two reasons.1 Interest rates affect not just the assets but the liability side of the balance sheet Insurance companies life insurance companies in particular have long-dated liabilities that often aren t fully hedged on the asset side In fixed income terminology, the duration of the liabilities exceeds the duration of the assets This means that when rates go down, the present value of the liabilities increases more than the present value of the assets, causing a hit to the surplus, which ultimately makes its way to the income statement When rates go up, the opposite occurs there is less of a decrease in the value of the shorter-dated assets than in the value of the longer-d ated liabilities, which increases the company s surplus position.2 The spread insurance companies earn between the actual investment yields and the guaranteed interest rate they offer to policy holders tends to be lower in a low rate environment This spread compression causes a drag on insurers earnings The widening of this spread that would accompany a higher yield environment would be a boon to insurers. This article explains the interest rate sensitivity of insurers in more detail. 104 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03 18 15 at 10 30 pm. 84 CJ on 03 18 15 at 10 00 pm 15.If I had to choose between. Option A being a mortgage slave for 40 years, shoveling snow for 8 months of the year, and having to commute one hour into work every day for the rest of my life. Option B living in Lillooet, BC. I would obviously choose Option A. Okay, for all that we re crapping on remote, little towns, I do want to hear Lillooet out For the average schmoes like me, fleeing to a small town would mean early earlier retirement, which starts to look really good when job stress is through the roof. Though we love the big city, all options are on the table In a little town we could live on much less, have a bunch of big dogs, and the kids would be happy until they grew into bored teenagers Lillooet, your brilliant recipe, if you will. 84 Smoking Man on 03 18 15 at 9 51 pm GARTHS Balanced approach works, works well but boaring and slow. Rabbit and Turtle. Here s what eventually happens to the rabbit. 106 Sheane Wallace on 03 18 15 at 10 30 pm. at 20 cents we can successfully compete with Asia for cheap labour. 107 Travelin Fool on 03 18 15 at 10 31 pm. I m sitting on my perch at the Hyatt Regency Hong Kong, reading a stern rebuke in today s South China Morning Post, aimed at anyone who denies the HAM issue in Vancouver and Canada generally Of course some people staunchly refuse to recognize facts as they are presented by China sources for reasons of their own. China now claims that as much as 1 4 trillion dollars has gone unaccounted for and they are launching a massive audit of all COE s around the globe They have signed extradition treaties with 69 countries recently Canada not mentioned and have repatriated thousands of wrong doers who absconded with funds taken from ministries and through general graft and corruption. Vancouver s big real estate story was of a duck farmer who bought a 52 million dollar mansion on Drummond Drive recently Well s not quite true The fellow is a central planner in charge of the City of Nanking Director of CCPPC and has been buying multi million dollar homes arou nd the world, including six others in Canada All of these officials are under official investigation it has been announced in this mornings SCMP rag that it is. The headline reads China sheds light on hunt for fugitives if you re interested in Googling the story btw It has been a very active investigation leading to the arrest of many prominent New Canadians. So ahhhh NO Ham you say balderdash china says there are corrupt officials wanted for crimes against the people in the thousands who have stolen billions and have been very active accumulating multiple houses and buildings in Canada to get their money out of the country are not safe anymore. The SCMP more accurately reported the buyer is one of 2,000 members of the CCPPC, which is an advisory, not a legislative, body He does not run Nanking, nor is he a politician or public administrator He is, however, a billionaire with a skyscraper-building construction firm, several hotels and a couple of pharma companies In other words, he epitom izes success and has a house that demonstrates it Your comment, inferring he is a corrupt official who stole his money, is so typical Poor Vancouver Garth. Is it true that lifeco s are gaining profit from increased lifespans or was that already basically factored into premiums. Insurance companies generally run portfolios where they seek to be neutral of longevity risk So when they sell a life insurance policy, they will seek to also sell an annuity or vice versa , such that, increased or decreased systemic longevity is neutral on the overall portfolio. What kills insurance companies is diminished long-term returns on their portfolios since their other risk, longevity risk, is basically hedged out A rising rate environment destroys returns on long-term investment portfolios as long term bonds experience returns that more closely resemble or even fall short of the quoted yield to maturity, rather than the capital gains inherent in the falling rate environment we ve seen since the apex of t he long-term bond market in the early 1980s. you need US customers whatever it is your husband is selling, sell it on line priced in USD. Hey smoking Man nice trade, thankfully you didn t get any of my stash I bailed out of my long USD CAD position last night with a small profit. You can add me to your fan list, you add a comical note to the blog, I enjoy your sense humor. On a side note can I get a signed copy of your book when it is available. Please Do not encourage him Garth. Don t believe me Look an any chart of any canadian insurer you know in the first half of 2013 when rates raised Manulife, GreatWest, Industrial Alliance. I ll look at the long-term charts of insurers, particularly those ones you quoted, and see that, over the past 30 years or as far back as I can go, since demutualization , they dramatically outperformed the market indices, paid their employees extravagantly for what effectively is a clerical function of society. Those charts clearly show outperformance of the insurer s versus the broad index of Canadian equities as represented by the EWC ETF In the long-term falling interest rate environment. As I suggested in one of my earlier comments, a good investment blueprint for a rising rate environment is to figure out what sectors outperformed over the past 35 years, and underweight them relative to sectors that underperformed over the past 35 years Insurers clearly benefitted enormously from the falling rate environment as the charts above show, relative to their peers in the broad stock market index. Only has to do with CSA etc approval A licensed insured heating gas oil contractor would be required to use only either CSA, Warnock Hersey, or Underwriters Labrotories With only Canadian approval If not approved for Canada, cannot be used Only for your safety. Nothing to do with ripping anyone off Quite the opposite actually. Of course you could always take your chances with bargain parts from some third world country. Garth, you can t rent a 2m house in Toront o for 3800 per month Not possible unless it s some shitty bungalow on a large plot of land that s about to be demo d Co mon garth, confess. Actually, I m inviting everyone over Garth. Canadians have nothing to worry about interest rates going have Japan s playbook and were in the 3rd over 20 years Japan has had very low rates and they did will see prime rate 0 25 ,5 yr at 1 25 and the 10 yr at we will endure a lower dollar, higher inflation and a real economic mess but we have no other choice. 117 Drill Baby Drill on 03 18 15 at 11 06 pm. 85 Mark A big reason refined product pricing is not in lock step with the oil price is that refineries at this time of year are starting to recalibrate from winter fuel to summer fuel This means plant shutdowns for turnarounds thus less product leaving the refineries Also in order to make up the gasoline shortfall in Canada they import refined product from the USA at a premium of course Most of this imported gasoline was refined from You Guessed it Oil Sands. 98 Whitby on 03 18 15 at 10 43 pm Hey smoking Man nice trade, thankfully you didn t get any of my stash I bailed out of my long USD CAD position last night with a small profit You can add me to your fan list, you add a comical note to the blog, I enjoy your sense humor On a side note can I get a signed copy of your book when it is available Please Do not encourage him Garth Please Do not encourage him Garth. Garth, I love you, and I m not gay. Contemplating getting off my lazy boy chair, Need the little boys room, now that s fen risk. I killed after 5 or 8 pints at Duke, two Mickie s of JD God I m sorry. This might not end well. In this world of financial mayhem, hows fractional reserve banking. Wonder where the dude is that invented that one. We are so screwed. 120 Drunk Actuary on 03 18 15 at 11 12 pm. 102 Mark Insurance companies generally run portfolios where they seek to be neutral of longevity risk So when they sell a life insurance policy, they will seek to also sell an annuity or vice versa , such that, increased or decreased systemic longevity is neutral on the overall portfolio. False again, the assertion that lifecos perfectly hedge their longevitiy risk is a myth Yes the risk partially offset each other but you just cant get a perfectly neutral portfolio The reason is simple, annuity business are generally sold to old people and retirees, and theyll receive their benefits till death Life insurance is usually sold to younger people who will take temporary insurance and often lapse the policy when their kids get older Also there are so many different products right now that you cant hedge everything easily. And I don t think that you understood my previous comment Life insurer are generally not making profits from a rise in bond value since their reserve are raising at the same rate, but they get hurt by the lower interest payment on these bonds and the lower investment return they get on new premiums. What kills insurance companies is diminished long-term returns on their portfolios since their other risk, longevity risk, is basically hedged out A rising rate environment destroys returns on long-term investment portfolios as long term bonds experience returns that more closely resemble or even fall short of the quoted yield to maturity, rather than the capital gains inherent in the falling rate environment we ve seen since the apex of the long-term bond market in the early 1980s. 121 Drunk Actuary on 03 18 15 at 11 14 pm. What kills insurance companies is diminished long-term returns on their portfolios since their other risk, longevity risk, is basically hedged out A rising rate environment destroys returns on long-term investment portfolios as long term bonds experience returns that more closely resemble or even fall short of the quoted yield to maturity, rather than the capital gains inherent in the falling rate environment we ve seen since the apex of the long-term bond market in the early 1980s. That paragraph ain t mine it s mark s one, Im just too retarded to quote properly. 122 lionsroarin64 on 03 18 15 at 11 24 pm. Enough talk about things that matter. Garth, you mentioned our esteemed prime minister and his Budget That Wouldn t Be. Do you think they ll introduce a balanced budget with a sprinkling of sugar and spankings and then drop the writ for an election held before the end of June. I m no Harper fan, but he must look at Creampuff-With-a-Hairdo on the one side and 30-Seconds-Away-From-a-Cardiac-Arrest on the other side and think, Hmmmm. 123 Sheane Wallace on 03 18 15 at 11 29 pm. Japan s debt is internal, they have bug trade surplus, also have very competitive manufacturing that will become even more profitable with the cheap Yen. In long term Japan will do better than Canada however funny this might sound today. Actually, I m inviting everyone over Garth. Buns of steel indeed. Japan has less than 2 of people being foreigners. No need to say more. 126 Sheane Wallace on 03 18 15 at 11 33 pm. Mark is an idiot, some of the insurance companies reserves are held in secure paper e g bonds , it is mandated by the government, so are some of the long term investments for life insurance for example. Higher interest rate bring more profit. Read 117 Drill Baby Drill and those of you who live east of Saskatchewan may begin to understand why north America should be carved up into south east quarters It explains a lot A different universe Nothing to connect us Even hockey won t accomplish this. Yellen in late Feb at a Senate Banking Committee hearing said the U-6 unemployment rate which includes people who are working part-time for economic reasons and those who are marginally attached to the labor force definitely shows a less rosy picture of employment in the country How relevant is U-6 at 11 3 to the economic recovery compared to the trotted out U-3 at 5 7.If interest rates go up, all the marginal companies that are surviving based primarily on low interest rates will suffer disappear How can that be good for the stock market. 130 Ralph Cramdown on 03 18 15 at 11 57 pm. Actually, I m inviting everyone over Garth. Today was great When they unseal the Fed s minutes, they ll read Let s take out the word patience but issue a quasi-dove-ish statement That ll head-fake all the flash traders with weak-ass NLP algos and they ll get eaten by the ones with better parsers Whee. Tip WWWD That s right, What Would Warren Do You think at 2 00 he was on the edge of his seat in front of his Bloomberg Quotron in Omaha with finger hovering near the buy and sell buttons on his six screen trading workstation nearby I don t. 131 Financial Freedom at 40 on 03 18 15 at 11 59 pm. 112 Mark - Hmm, humouring myself with the 2013 MFC annual report, just search for the keyword interest rates in the management discussion analysis Highly recommend going directly to the source. RE Actually, I m inviting everyone over Garth. Have you been drinking with SM. 4 Leroy Washington Canadians are very stupid when it comes to money, and investing. Now I heard it all Who created that financial mess that just about blew up the World s financial landscape in 2008 Giving people with no jobs mortgages over the phone in less than five minutes Pretty smart eh. My only question is why do you, your wife, and a dog need to live in a 2 million dollar home Seems you could plow a portion of that rent into something else and still live quite well. Oh well I guess we all have to live in the moment too. Personally I can understand why my dentist makes as much as I do That s tough work and she s running a business with all those hygienists and what not But my money manager Yes he should make as much as I do, he has multiple clients after all But if he s living in twice the house and driving a Beemer and his wife has a Porsche, I m wondering if maybe he isn t investing enough of his own money. I know it s very common these days to flaunt it if you got it , and if it s T A I m all in favor But if it s wealth to some extent I think it s vulgar. So it s vulgar to rent and invest my money instead of buying an inflated pile of stones Would you be happier if money managers lived in mortgaged bungalows in the burbs That would inspire confidence Flaunting renters I think you just invented something Garth. 135 NotAGreaterFool on 03 19 15 at 12 17 am. Garth Will you take the elevator down from your glass office to hear Glenworth talk about the 1st Time Home Buyer At least send out your spies and report back the blog. 60 Babblemaster on 03 18 15 at 8 54 pm There goes the Fed once again Saying nothing and bluffing big time No more patience, though So, are we to ASSUME a rate rise Yes, but it depends So, yeah, OK, there could be a rate rise What total BS this whole charade is Instead of a rate rise, there ll probably be another QE That s what Schiff says and I believe it BTW, you know what happens when one assumes Yes, Babblemaster Let s review YOUR assumptions, shall we You ASSUME the whole thing is BS You ASSUME the whole thing is a charade You ASSUME there will probably be another QE You ASSUME that Peter Schiff is one to be believed, even though his track record is dismal. Yes, we know what happens when you assume. Mr Garth, or anyone else who might know what the hell just happened 2 of my ETFs.1 VUN total US 2 XIU tsx 60.both went down today while the indexes they follow went up It doesn t make sense to me. Is this a normal thing to happen Doesn t this kinda defeat the purpose of following the news blogs and then making a informed decision on where to place your money. are there any signs I could follow in the future to prevent something like this to happen to me again. Who wants to live and retire in lilooet Seriously. False again, the assertion that lifecos perfectly hedge their longevitiy risk is a myth Yes the risk partially offset each other but you just cant get a perfectly neutral portfolio. Of course, nothing s perfect in life But that s the goal the insurers strive for, and judging by their financial results over the years, they ve done quite well at it We have not seen a failure of life insurers on a widescale basis because of increasing longevity Quite the opposite, the insurers have solidily outperformed the TSX and the S P500 indices along with the rest of the financial sector. The theory that insurers do better in a rising rate environment might sound good, but the evidence of the past 15-30 years, of falling rates and insurance co outperformance relative to the market, does not bear this out. The reason is simple, annuity business are generally sold to old people and retirees, and theyll receive their benefits till death Life insurance is usually sold to younger people who will take temporary insurance and often lapse the policy when their kids get older. Life insurance is also extensively sold to the elderly who use it to mitigate tax risk I think we ve all seen that heavily run ad where seniors are advised, as part of their estate planning, to buy life insurance to pay the taxes owing on the disposition of a heavily appreciated family cottage. Also there are so many different products right now that you cant hedge everything easily. Agreed, but such products fit into an overall portfolio by the insurer, and the actuaries at a competent insurer strive to achieve pricing on products that reflect the risk. Anyways, I m not going to spend a lot more time along the lines of this topic, other than to say, the era of excess returns to financial entities, inclu ding insurers over the past 30-35 years, is gradually coming to an end As Garth points out repeatedly although we disagree on timing , we are on the cusp of a major change in the direction of interest rates Sectors that benefitted from the long-term upside of falling rates, such as the FIRE sector, will find that rising rates represent quite the opposite of a benefit And vice versa The future, IMHO, is quite dark for most of the FIRE sector relative to the rest of the economy, and insurers are likely no exception. 114 Cato the Elder yesterday. The process by which oil was created is quite well understood by geologists and others involved in it s extraction, and the information is readily available if you want to research it. So the only known natural and read the word natural again, it can be done artificially but not in nature that we know way of converting carbon and hydrogen into complex organic molecules is done by plants via photo-synthesis You may remember something about it, this is why your tree has green leaves But it s also algae and a wide range of other plants. Algae, and not fossils, is the true source of most of our oil and gas, not fossils, although their are often fossils found in the rock. So what happened millions of years ago say 500 million is that eons of dead algae was entombed with forming shale layers at the bottom of the ocean, along with the odd fossil But this wasn t oil it was dead algae in sediment. These shale layers are often referred to as source rock in the oil indust ry, and it is where the fracking is occurring now but let s get back to the story because it wasn t oil yet. Along came plate tectonics This is a weird word for the fact that the earth slowly moves, and certain parts crash up over other parts that are going down if a crash can last 100 million years Where the shale got buried deeply, the algae was converted through heat and pressure to oil and gas, and where possible migrated towards the surface since it is lighter than water, which there is a surprising amount of under ground in porous rock. Most of this oil probably got reabsorbed by the environment and converted back into plant matter as is very slowly surfaced, but where a trap existed, that being a fold of tight rock above a porous rock lick a previous ancient river bed or perhaps even a deep corral structure like the Leduc field, the oil remained below surface in those traps. Those traps over source rock are where conventional oil come from and we ve probably found most of them at t his point with our 3-d and 4-d seismic. The proof is beyond conclusive With modern chemistry we can prove that oil contains genetic markers of the algae that it was made from still included in the oil Not all of the genes of the original plants were destroyed. So that is how the earth makes oil, and it is not controversial We understand this now as well as we understand why the planets orbit the sun. Shale oil and gas is really going after the oil and gas that is left in the source rock, that didn t migrate due to being trapped That s why you have to frack it, it won t come out unless you break the rock. So yes, the earth is making more oil Unfortunately it looks like it will be another 500 million years before the tank is refilled. A good analogy is coal, which comes from ancient but more recently similarly buried trees Everyone knows coal is buried trees, sometimes it still looks like trees when you dig it up But the idea that the earth is through natural processes is still burying trees and converting them to coal at the same rate we are mining it is ridiculous. Oil is a finite, limited, and scarce resource We can use it all up right away like the Easter Islanders used up their forest if we want and that seems to be what we are doing , but like the Easter Islanders found out, the trees and oil aren t coming back. So please, please do a little bit of rudimentary research before making sun revolves around the earth because the bible says so type claims about oil Every barrel of oil we consume is a barrel we will never have back on any time line that might matter to us Claims to the contrary only display a lack of education, and wishful thinking. The only question remaining, and has been since the 40 s, is not are we using up the oil , but how much is there. Why is nobody complaining about this. Oil is 100 bl Gas 1 35 Oil 50 gas 90 Oil 43 gas 1 20.so lets play the numbers and place bets with our bookies on the fed budget bet large on a raining in of CHMC look for lower pricip al purchase price limits the big surprise will be in the minimum down payment requirements, regardless of purchase price, and new strict requirements as to where you get the down payment AKA forget flake 2nd mtg financing make no mistake government politicos dont like time bombs ticking away in there back yards especially ones that could decimate the serving party, if it blows up on there watch lets see how smart they are as we head into a federal election. 143 Waterloo Resident on 03 19 15 at 1 28 am. Garth, you said that rates in the U S will soon be going up. So then, why are rates in the bond markets crashing towards zero as these 2 charts show. If traders were expecting rates to be going up anytime soon, then those charts would be rising, not falling, right. Remeber this response Garth, U S will not be raising rates this year. 145 Industrial Guy on 03 19 15 at 2 10 am. 43 margin disappear on 03 18 15 at 7 59 pm. You point out a major problem with your comments about cheaper parts sourced in the USA and service providers not installing them because we can not provide warranty on it It s actually a lot more complex than that.1st, not all manufacturers in the USA comply with Canadian CSA requirements We live in a world with a hodgepodge of manufacturing standards CSA, UL CE, IEC, RUL, ISO, ITU. I could fill pages with standard designations used around the world The argument can be made that all these competing standards are simply non-monetary barriers to trade and you would have a strong case. Here s one of the big differences between doing business in the USA and Canada Standards CSA for example compliance for many products is backed by Federal and Provincial laws in Canada Gas appliances can only be connected to the gas supply by a licensed gas fitter in some provinces. Here for example is TSSA Ontario Regulation 212 01.Certificates required for various activities 6 1 No person shall install, alter, purge, activate, repair, service or remove any appliance, equipment or other thing employed or to be employed in the handling or use of gas unless the person is the holder of a certificate for that purpose O Reg 212 01, s 6 1.In the USA, Manufacturers submit products to UL for testing and safety certification on a voluntary basis There are no laws specifying that a UL Mark must be used However, in the United States there are many municipalities that have laws, codes or regulations which require a product to be tested by a nationally recognized testing laboratory before it can be sold in their area UL is the largest and oldest nationally recognized testing laboratory in the United States UL does not, however, maintain a list of the jurisdictions having such regulations. This is why any handyman can install and service your gas or oil boiler well except as you pointed out in Massachusetts Regulations are quite different in the USA Many of Can ada s strict natural gas regulations came about after the LaSalle Heights Disaster , a gas explosion which leveled a housing project on the island of Montreal in 1965 28 people lost their lives, 39 were injured and 200 left homeless After this event it s easy to understand our very cautious approach to Natural Gas and Propane appliances. If you install a non-compliant item in Canada, you may be violating Federal Provincial laws You re also accepting 100 liability for the part If you buy a non-approved burner assembly or pressure blow off valve for your boiler and it causes a house fire or a flood you re stuck covering the repairs If your e poorly installed item blows up the neighborhood Don t expect you re house insurance to cover it Counterfeit parts is also a growing problem in North America.2nd problem distributors. Canada is a huge country with a small population Many firms outside of Canada are very intimidated by the economics of servicing such a large area They find it much easier to use distributor who service the national and local wholesalers retailers while representing multiple lines These multiple lines make them economically viable. These distributors are given National or Provincial exclusivity In exchange for the free labour and marketing expenses provided by the distributors Distributors add roughly 20 to 30 to the wholesale cost to cover their expenses. Would it be cheaper to go direct to the foreign supplier Sure, but it s highly unlikely they will sell to you in Canada and violate the binding distribution agreement in place Since the distributors also handle local warranty issues anything bought outside their territory is not their problem. So sorry, no cheap parts for you You re also paying for a higher level of safety Isn t you family worth it. 146 Canadian In US on 03 19 15 at 3 53 am. Your closing analysis today suggests recessions are no longer a topic of possibility It has been at least six years and the US fed has zero policy tools available WHEN the one occurs The US has never entered a recession with zero percent rates, much less effectively zero percent for 15 years. It is also insane to reason a housing bubble exists completely independent of an equity market bubble They were both born by excess central bank money desperate for yield and a lack of imagination of the populous as to what constitutes an investment. As a result of the unprecedented actions of the terrified US fed if QE actually works we would have already raised rates , the tulip investor mob and the brain dead US government spending in 10 years what took 225 years of their predecessors to spend the US markets will collapse this year housing, equities and the 18 trillion US government debt The long term charts tell it all. 147 Waterloo Resident on 03 19 15 at 3 59 am. Well, that massive rise in the S P 500 set off both Buy triggers in my stock timing system, something I wasn t expecting to happen for a few weeks at least Oh well So tomorrow I place a buy at an equivalent S P value of around 2103, about where I sold everything 2 weeks ago. For days and days all signals were red, even when stocks were rising a few days ago the moves were weak and all other signals were showing no go Suddenly everything is Go , starting just today. ConocoPhillips became the latest major oil company to chop staff numbers to deal with the oil-price crash, and more layoffs in downtown Calgary are likely as the industry digs in for a lengthy downturn. The Canadian unit of the Houston-based oil major told employees on Wednesday that it was reducing its work force by about 200 workers, or 7 per cent of its total, spokeswoman Kristen Ashcroft said. Take Brian, for example With three years and 520,000 left on his five-year mortgage, Bri an who didn t want his last name used is getting ready to sell his Vancouver home in order to downsize He s now facing nearly 30,000 in fees to break his mortgage early, a calculation based on the difference between the 5 24 per cent posted rate on his mortgage when he first signed it two years ago and the 3 39 per cent posted rate his bank is offering today on a three-year mortgage because Brian has three years left on his mortgage The bank uses these numbers despite the fact that Brian s actual mortgage rate is just 2 79 per cent Had the penalty been based on three months of interest payments, it would have been around 3,627.Brian was prepared to pay some kind of penalty for breaking his mortgage early, but expected it would have been one based on the rate he is actually paying and not the posted rate The idea is sound I m even OK with how the calculations are done, he said in an e-mail It s just they use numbers completely unrelated to my actual commitment. Alan Kearns, president and founder of Calgary-based CareerJoy, said his firm had been approached by a number of energy-sector companies looking for assistance in letting staff go. This entire year will be like this, Mr Kearns said in an interview He said if oil and gas production companies are cutting jobs, then the engineering firms, construction and oilfield services companies that support the producers are likely to follow suit. 151 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 7 30 am. 143 Industrial Guy So sorry, no cheap parts for you. Let s take out of the argument the non-CSA compliant parts Let s talk about parts that are made by the same manufacturer for the same product line. Let s even assume that the part is from the same local distributor. The point you are ignoring to address is that why do services charge 100 margin on top of the distributor s margin on parts they install. This way you can also discard the emotional selling point of you re also paying for a higher level of safety Isn t you family worth it. In fact, a system that does not allow 100 margin charged to families is safer, since it removes the financial incentive to use grey market parts if they even exist and they are not simply non-monetary barriers to trade as you have pointed out. Charging families with 100 margin and using the safety of families argument just makes the cynical exploitation of monopolies and predatory pricing to a ridiculous level. If the economy is so strong why does the fed have to wait to raise rates Sounds to me like the old fat person I am overweight and I will eat like a pig until the end of the year and then start my diet on Jan 1 You know how long the diet lasts right. We re all kinda scared, aren t we Garth. Bulls eye Direct hit, from what I ve read over the past year. The only thing that will cure Canadian borrower s obscene appetite for debt is rate hikes Slow, steady and unrelenting - to normalcy Our economy is extremely distorted and unbalanced because of persistent dumb policy leading to excess debt. Fiscal stress is a great teacher It forces people to plan and think and that is clearly not what has been happening since cb diddling with interest rates began. Where are the buns of steel at the cb At the fm s office. There s only one direction for the cost of money as the global recovery progresses, the US expands, Europe gets back on its feet and China moves out of economic adolescence. That s a a lot of IFs, all strung together. Let s be clear Perhaps ONE rate increase by the US Fed this year is certain After that, solid economic data needs to emerge, quarter after quarter, for rates to keep increasing Else, it s just one step forward, one step backwards if not two steps back. Sure, it s possible that rates double in 5years But also very possible that rates stay the same If the world economy is truly poised to pick up steam, the oil prices don t anticipate that forecasted demand Quite the contrary. Many times in the past 3-5 years this blog has asserted that its predictions were imminent, Hope you listed your house It has begun type of sentiments We all know, It has NOT begun It has actually gone backwards. We ve got a long, long way to go before SUSTAINED rate increases go from the realm of guesswork to real possibility. 63 Drunk Actuary on 03 18 15 at 9 01 pm. I can t imagine the amount of cash sitting on the sidelines that would otherwise be invested in annuities, given the retiring cohort A portion invested in these puts a floor under basic expenses and liberates a portion of net worth for the wants or bucket lists of life. Janet Yellen was giving a speech when her batteries went dead A quick thinking minion shoved her carcass aside and replaced it with the energizer bunny and nobody even noticed In fact, the bunny gave better guidance than Yellen. Keep the Ponzi going. Now, just for fun, let s compare your resume with hers Garth. As a wise old owl once said There s a fine line between an idiot savant and plain idiot. And tonight, you my friend, are, unfortunately, but very clearly, on the wrong side of that line. 158 More number spinning from TREB on 03 19 15 at 8 34 am. 73 Roial1 on 03 18 15 at 9 20 pm. Garth, or anyone, Can you explain this. Oil is 100 bl Gas 1 35 Oil 50 gas 90 Oil 43 gas 1 20 Is this care of being screwed or as I expect Rape I never even got a kiss That to me means RAPE. Simple, ugly greed. No sensible explanation available No excuses No sense Simple greed Cartel heaven. The enabling provincial PTB because it does vary greatly by province believe that the cartel have more right to your money than you do. Agree with many of the economic comments here, but believe that the above story has more to it than posters give credit. 129 AD If interest rates go up, all the marginal companies that are surviving based primarily on low interest rates will suffer disappear How can that be good for the stock market. If the low rates are the only reason they re surviving then they have much bigger problems and wouldn t survive long term in any event. 133 Paddler Now I heard it all Who created that financial mess that just about blew up the World s financial landscape in 2008 Giving people with no jobs mortgages over the phone in less than five minutes Pretty smart eh. Actually, nobody is forced to borrow People have to make their own decisions. 163 Sheane Wallace on 03 19 15 at 9 27 am. 136 JimH on 03 19 15 at 12 22 am Yes, Babblemaster Let s review YOUR assumptions, shall we You ASSUME the whole thing is BS You ASSUME the whole thing is a charade You ASSUME there will probably be another QE You ASSUME that Peter Schiff is one to be believed, even though his track record is dismal. Yes, we know what happens when you assume. Do your leg work first and then pass judgement. Peter Shiff is on record search youtube predicting the credit bubble and house crash in the US at the time circa 2005-2007 Morons were laughing at him publicly on TV, he was kind of the joke on public television Very entertaining Until sudenly he was proven right. I watch his calls, he might look off, based on timing he predicted 5 k gold for example but so far his views were pretty much accurate overwall He looks at big picture and at the information avaiable and sees trend It is not that difficult but it takes guts to be contrarian as Garth here knows. To say Peter Shiff s track record is dismal proves i gnorance and stupidity, so costly these days. As for rasing rates meaningflully when the whole world is cutting them and playing currency wars, I would have to wait and see that. Increasing rates by 0 25 or even 0 5 is irrelevant, it is like putting lipstick on a pig I would need to see at least 6-8 rates to even remotely consider bonds or money instruments. 164 Sheane Wallace on 03 19 15 at 9 32 am. Your money is a credit note owned by the bank and due to the bank You own nothing It is an illusion. As for the gas prices, it is normal, the executives need to maintain that profit margin that justifies their bonuses and this is all that matters. BTW gas in Toronto is 1 00 today. 71 Smoking Man on 03 18 15 at 9 17 pm Well I had a great day, my son, not so good, I m thinking about banning him from Trading He s out of control Last night we had a talk, it was to early for me to read into fear and greed I Got a good feeling the FOMC was going to be in a bind, USD so high it s hurting the recovery, the CEO of Galap poll said Labour stats are funded But then I was worried Yellen might give a shit about her ego More than the recovery So I said to my son, no trading today, I told him I suspect the USD might lose a cent or so But on these types of days you can get wiped out in Milli seconds What I dident know or check he had two sells on USDCAD I trusted he was natural After I closed out my 2 million in profit, I log into his account Good news is he s up 20k for the day , Bad news he l took a huge hit when he got out, just as I was loading up Had he not caved he would have made 250k he should set some stops the negate a out Why I m pissed, he should have let me know he wasn t natural I can t baby sit him One more chance I m thinking He caught the slidder perfectly, exited to early Dident fallow rules Because he was rattled with the big hit, he was happy to get out with a win That s not how you do this Not often you get a 4 big number move in one day You guys know where the pic is Now it s time to drink. Come on SM if you ve got 2M in profit and on a day with 750 trades in play you re BSing us Tax farm slave trades and makes 2M profit WTF are you doing working as a code smith See you at Santon Bridge. The only thing that will cure Canadian borrower s obscene appetite for debt is rate hikes. Or spreads risk premia becoming quite large on account of diminished credit-worthiness due to over-capacity over-indebtedness Which is exactly what we re starting to see The declining housing market has sapped consumer equity which in turn, is increasing their borrowing costs Its no coincidence that unsecured borrowing, typically at higher rates than dirt-cheap mortgage credit, has accelerated significantly over the past 2 years of house price stagnation and minor declines. IOW, I would suggest that the market is taking care of the over-leverage in the consumer sector by increasing the cost of credit, independent of BoC policy which generally exists to target inflation across the entire economy Since i nflation is practically non-existent and will be even more non-existent as consumer balance sheets continue to weaken, there is no reason for policy rate hikes Indications point more solidly towards the necessity of cuts, especially as such trend accelerates. If interest rates go up, all the marginal companies that are surviving based primarily on low interest rates will suffer disappear How can that be good for the stock market. Some companies actually benefit from higher rates The TSX, for instance, is full of examples of such firms Particularly firms with large investments in long-term plant and equipment, which will gain pricing power as higher hurdle rates for investment severely limit the ability of competitors to compete Also, many firms are heavily indebted in long term obligations, so the rising rate rising inflation environment depreciates the relative cost of debt service. For instance, the long-term interest rate is a key input to the NPV analysis of mining projects world-wide , in making investment decisions If one inserts a higher rate into the analysis, many projects become less feasible and do not move forward Meaning that, over time, supply is eventually constrained, and prices rise, even with rising interest rates Additionally, in the rising long-term rate environment, most fixed income investments typically are losing a considerable amount of value ie high rates currency depreciation as I ve explained on numerous occasions , and historically investors have sought to hoard precious metals and certain other industrial inputs and inventories, obviously enhancing demand for such to the benefit of the producers of such. 167 Frank le skank on 03 19 15 at 9 47 am. 141 john on 03 19 15 at 1 10 am Why is nobody complaining about this. Oil is 100 bl Gas 1 35 Oil 50 gas 90 Oil 43 gas 1 20.Now, just for fun, let s compare your resume with hers Garth. Wasn t it Ben Bernanke who now infamously said that there wasn t a housing bubble just before it collapsed back in 2008.You should see his resume. 169 Leroy Washington on 03 19 15 at 9 55 am. Who created that financial mess that just about blew up the World s financial landscape in 2008.The answer is YOU did YOU created that financial mess and just about blew up the World s financial landscape in 2008 And don t even pretend that you didn t. Actually, I m inviting everyone over Garth. I hope you have at least two washrooms. 171 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 10 16 am. 100 OttawaMike on 03 18 15 at 10 23 pm. Now which system do you prefer The one where anybody can but boiler parts at wholesale and install them ad hoc or where you pay a markup usually 33 on the part and have a licensed, insured and safety audited contractor sell and install it for you. I don t live in Ottawa, but in our bigger city I have not managed to find that licensed, insured, etc contractor that works with 33 markup The markup is 100.So the total cost of replacing a 200 part is in a Canadian city as below. a initial service call 85- 120 some use additional ridiculous truck fee 55 b 1-2 hours diagnosing the issue 95- 120 per hour yes, we do service that make and model c part 400 with 100 markup d installation min 1 hour 85- 120.Forgot to mention, no guarantee that this solves the issue, the 100 markup does not buy you refund if the already replaced part is not the issue. Guess what The American system looks pretty appealing now. Government are on the side of voters, not renters Read a bout the Fed Meeting from yesterday US interest rates will grow slower than expected Search for Fed dot plot. Mortage rates will remain low, very low, for longer Painful for us renters who want to buy a house. At the News yesterday Yellen. We might high interest rates, we might not, maybe no maybe in June maybe in September. bla bla bla Always the same story. Dans la brume pas mal lots of fog. Now, just for fun, let s compare your resume with hers Garth. I have a better, more qualified idea s compare their T4 s instead. money talks resumes walk. re 156 The Real Kip. 175 Ralph Cramdown on 03 19 15 at 10 31 am. 160 Ottawa Agree with many of the economic comments here, but believe that the above story has more to it than posters give credit. The SCMP more accurately reported the buyer is one of 2,000 members of the CCPPC, which is an advisory, not a legislative, body He does not run Nanking, nor is he a politician or public administrator He is, however, a billionaire with a skyscraper-building construction firm, several hotels and a couple of pharma companies In other words, he epitomizes success and has a house that demonstrates it Your comment, inferring he is a corrupt official who stole his money, is so typical Poor Vancouver Garth. I think Garth s comment above highlights the difference between his thinking and my thinking on the issue I believe that it s virtually impossible or at least highly unlikely to become a billionaire in China without supporting and being supported by various branches of the Communist party, which I believe to be a ruthless suppressor of human rights and a hotbed o f corruption Further, you don t go from broke to billionaire real estate developer without using a lot of other peoples money, and it s my understanding that the Chinese banking system, in addition to being the instrument of state financial repression i e paying savers significantly less than inflation as a matter of law and public policy, and allowing few other places for capital to be lent , very much lends on the basis of connections rather than sound business plans In short, I believe that the phrase legitimate mainland Chinese billionaire is an oxymoron. Per other issues, of how much foreign money is in urban Canadian real estate I believe more than the naysayers think, because I do believe we are a safe haven destination for offshore cash some dirty, some clean , so it is likely that some of it is disguised behind Canadian straw buyers Whether Canadians WANT a laissez-faire policy toward foreign residential real estate ownership is another issue again, as is the question of how mu ch legitimate Canadian ethnic buying is confused for offshore money by local xenophobes. The pro-China and pro-real estate crowd seems all too willing to conflate these issues and tar all opponents with the racist brush Our man in Ottawa, such an idealistic crusader for human rights in certain conflicts elsewhere, gets a serious case of realpolitik on the China file. I ll say no more on the file, as Garth and I will obviously continue to disagree absent new data But it does rankle me to see these issues continually conflated I don t think I ve personally been called a racist here, except by one poster who labelled me such on the basis of what she imagined I d say in some situations you DO get the crazies here , but views I agree with have often been denigrated and wilfully misconstrued, and at least some of the people who ve done it are obviously smart enough to know better It s a cheap debating tactic. 15 Lillooet, BC on 03 18 15 at 7 07 pm. I m debt-free, mortgage-free and rent-free Don t even owe a nickel on my credit card cause I pay off the balance every month I don t have a line of credit or car loan either All my income is free cash flow So interest rate fluctuations are a big yawn for me. Welcome to the club But you did not mention your significant wealth I assume, like anyone with sizeable investments, they are directly or indirectly interest rate sensitive Therefore interest rate changes SHOULD be of major concern. 138 Nodebt on 03 19 15 at 12 47 am Who wants to live and retire in lilooet Seriously. So what s wrong with Lilooet Sounds good to me, considering that people actually think Elliot Lake ONT is a retirement haven Maybe it is the glow-in-the-dark atmosphere in winter. For those interested in my trading technical methods. Again this is very very risky Unlike my son, I never use more that 7 of my book at any given time Need back up to fight a string of bad bets. I strongly discouraged you from trying this If you do, make sure you don t use more than 5 of your net worth in your fx trading account. Practise daily in a demo account for two years before using real money. Later debunking the tortoise and the rabbit fable. 178 Squirrel Meat on 03 19 15 at 10 44 am. 134 nonplused on 03 19 15 at 12 14 am. I know it s very common these days to flaunt it if you got it , and if it s T A I m all in favor But if it s wealth to some extent I think it s vulgar. So it s vulgar to rent and invest my money instead of buying an inflated pile of stones Would you be happier if money managers lived in mortgaged bungalows in the burbs That would inspire confidence Flaunting renters I think you just invented something Garth - Maybe Garth s got a great set of T A s to flaunt as well. 179 Cape Breton is FINISHED on 03 19 15 at 10 46 am. 180 Squirrel Meat on 03 19 15 at 11 02 am. It s never dropping in YVR. Last year, I sold a couple of grandparents estates, and the parents got the money, and they gave it to the kids to buy houses. I am always impressed with the healthy debate in the comments section of this blog, even if some of the comments are a little out of left field. I see lots of news about financial literacy education and I can t help but wonder if we need more of it The folks who read this blog are arguably above-average in their knowledge of investments, but how do we raise the collective bar so we, as a nation, have a better sense of what to do with our money. I m sure this blatant display of hope for my fellow human s capacity to learn will be met with ridicule by the naysayers on the blog, but heck, someone s got to ask What will it take to kick the S out of Sheeple. 62 Garth, Have you succumbed to ads I m getting ads popping up as I scroll the comments And ad tags attached to select words like Bank, Invest, Again etc. This happened to me awhile back If I remember correctly I went into CONTROL PANEL, PROGRAMS deleted the offending download I d inadvertently picked up somewhere Harmless enuf just a nuisance. 183 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03 19 15 at 11 18 am. 160 Ottawa on 03 19 15 at 8 44 am. Agree with many of the economic comments here, but believe that the above story has more to it than posters give credit Yep agreed, It is interesting that everyone is bashing the foreign investors that purchase property here Specifically the Asian investors I don t give a dam if an investor comes here to drop a couple cool big ones It is interesting though that a lot of this investing is unscrupulous if not totally illegal The only codicil I would like to have is if you invest here, you actually need to reside here for a certain number of weeks, months or a to be determined number of days This and this only can help the local economy generate some revenue As for the bomb dropped who come here to purchase property as a safe haven in order to launder or hide their foreign assets we need a reciprocity agreement with the investors nations to let them know how is dropping big fat ones here and for how much Lets see how many real investors muddy the waters then. Actually, I m inviting everyo ne over HonGarth. email protected s It sEASTER, Or HaveYouEverSeenAnEquinoXBunny RogerMooreHas SomethingForEveryOne. 185 industrial Guy on 03 19 15 at 11 21 am. The point you are ignoring to address is that why do services charge 100 margin on top of the distributor s margin on parts they install. In a word they can. Professionals can only charge what the market will bear If no one was willing to pay the 100 margins these prices would fall. Predatory Pricing That s when prices are set low in an attempt to eliminate the competition Walmart has turned this into an art. I thought you re entire argument was about overly generous margins. National safety standards tend to be duplicates with small variations of each other The CSA has ratified a number of IEC standards over the last decade As I said, some are simply non-monetary barriers to trade Grey market products are a growing problem in Canada It s an International crisis in the aircraft parts industry. Sounds like a great business we should all get our gas fitters license. Do you prefer the US system where safety is driven by fear of a law suits and there are little or no requirements for professional competence I trust carpenters to hammer wood together Installing gas appliances not so much. Gas safety is not a straw dog remember the LaSalle Heights Disaster disaster. Dollar-a-day mortgage offered by B C condo developers. They must have heard the Fed is about to embark on rate hikes this year. Desperation, masked as competitiveness. RE sales in the GTA are increasing at a rapid pace, a 10 increase in prices in the next 12 months is not out of order. Rate increase maybe 25-50 basis points in the next 4 years, hardly anything to worry about. Sure thing Keep telling your clients that Very responsible of you Garth. 188 Squirrel meat on 03 19 15 at 11 42 am. Keystone is dead, dead and deader Obama wants a legacy other than the Nobel peace prize droner. I don t see how rates doubling over the next 5 years could possibly be good for the overvalued stock markets we have around the world and the US of A in particular On the other hand, I don t think rates will go up that much if at all Mistress Yellen will get cold feet once she starts seeing the market busting and US dollar boosting effects of higher rates Rising rates mean economic growth Growth means more corporate profitability That results in higher stock values People here sure do obsess about extremes Garth. 190 CalgaryRocks on 03 19 15 at 11 43 am. 162 Julia on 03 19 15 at 9 09 am 133 Paddler Now I heard it all Who created that financial mess that just about blew up the World s financial landscape in 2008 Giving people with no jobs mortgages over the phone in less than five minutes Pretty smart eh. Actually, nobody is forced to borrow People have to make their own decisions. So the people that created the system, made billions off of managing it, marketing it and then spreading it across the planet by selling collateralized mortgage backed securities have no blame BS. To 15 Lillooet, BC I m debt-free, mortgage-free and rent-free Don t even owe a nickel on my credit card cause I pay off the balance every month I don t have a line of credit or car loan either All my income is free cash flow So interest rate fluctuations are a big yawn for me. I used to be a city-dwelling condo-owning corporate slave and an income-tax-paying road rage, latte sucking, stressed out mortgage serf then I finally found out the secret to life It s called Free dom 35 A financial plan I developed on my own, and it s all legal and ethical And I don t have to shovel 50 cm of snow on a March 18th And no, I didn t marry or inherit a big pile. But you guys don t want to know about it. Good for you You must have been very disciplined and worked hard to arrive where you are I truly think you deserve it. But why brag about it If I did not know better, I would think it shows insecurity to have to show off this way Almost sounds like Freedom First, and you know what some of us think about him. 192 millennial cowboy on 03 19 15 at 11 46 am. Gartho Yellen s resume reads like every central bank employee s completely lacking any private sector real world experience They are all just a bunch of ivory tower academics who really really believe in their theories This time is different. Assumptions made by Garth 1 US Fed is always right no matter what they do Let us forget that 2008-09 crisis ever occured It was an outlier, oversight and will never happen again Although the Fed didnt know what to do before the crisis it has learnt and is capable of handling any eventuality in future Forget 2000 crash too, forget 1929, 1937 2 Bonds and Stocks are always negatively correlated 3 I am the smartest person in the whole world 4 Real Estate in Canada is in a bubble, but stock markets and or soveriegn debt markets especially the US Treasuries can never ever be in a bubble Where will people go if not into treasuries for safety Forget the trade deficits that US has run for 40 years 5 Fighting def lation through monetary policies is correct, because what will happen if prices fall Despite any efforts by monetary authorities, prices fall anyways Isnt that a failure of monetary policies 6 Never question the independence of US Fed, ECB Japanese Central bank buying their own soveriegn debt Hey, they should also buy stocks and corporate bonds if need be But insuring real estate through Fannie Mae and CMHC is always a bad idea, because that is a Government body. good luck investing. Cheers, I ll take 3 for a thousand bucks, Alex Garth. a deflating housing bubble if not yet in Toronto and Vancouver , stagnant incomes I m repeating Garth s third paragraph supra rising unemployment, and record household debt Next to no hope for raw materials exports. The PM is not unconcerned , and adds we his gov t will take some sort of as yet unspecified action in the future. I get a sense of creepy As in Harper s a creep. There s also something creepy about how some of the Alberta oil workers were let go n ote shoved under the door in the wee hours, hitchhike home, condiments in the cafeteria just disappear. The somnambulant doorknob sucker from North-of-Montana, this fat-lipped Teletubby PM, his Revived Egyptian Mummy FinMin, and cabinet crew of pudgy Cons savants are going to budget for what. Condoronto s skyline is creepy-lookin too. Another myopic view of the herded buyer. Asian lady in Vancouver tells others to go back to where they came from so they can get their house. a little off topic, but Yellen has a valuable stamp collection I guess this is an example of how to hedge against mainstream economics, diversify Love the history of stamp collecting myself interesting way of passing on inheritence to future generations too right Garth. So if rates go to 5 are we better off to sell our balanced portfolio and go into guaranteed investments like Gic s Most people rely on the 4 rule for financial independence Which would be met without risk outside of equity funds in this scenario. So Garth can you look inside your Crystal ball and tell me If rates go up what happens to the stock market. Nothing And rates won t achieve 5 for a long time Garth. P S Stamps are much better than Beanie Babies Be careful what you choose to collect just saying. 163 Sheane Wallace. re Peter Schiff. Sheane, here s a little unbiased legwork for you. Read em and weep Or better yet, please tell us how you would have made a red cent following his advice for the past, say 5-6 years. 199 Frank le skank on 03 19 15 at 12 26 pm. 177 Cape Breton is FINISHED on 03 19 15 at 10 46 am. 200 4 AM Sunrise on 03 19 15 at 12 39 pm. 134 nonplused on 03 19 15 at 12 14 am My only question is why do you, your wife, and a dog need to live in a 2 million dollar home Seems you could plow a portion of that rent into something else and still live quite well. If it s within his means, he s free to do whatever he wants Otherwise, what s the point of anything. And I think you underestimate his net worth. If he actually bought that 2 million home in cash which he can , maybe that would be vulgar. 165 OMG on 03 19 15 at 9 43 am Ha, damn it, I m busted. I boast about being a masterfull skilled lier on a weekly basis Of course I m bull shiting about making 2 million in one day It was actually a bit more damn there I go again Lying I have issues.750 contracts 1 27901 2518.I m A compulsive lier some people collect stamps. Get over yourself. john on 03 19 15 at 1 10 am Why is nobody complaining about this. Oil is 100 bl Gas 1 35 Oil 50 gas 90 Oil 43 gas 1 20.It s because of the refineries in the US That are either on strike or shut down for maintenance or whatever bs excuse they are given Supply of gas vs demand equals price Would be nice if canada would refine our own gas but the US would never allow that The US will never allow Canada to have our own industries as they would bomb us That s why no canadian car company and they took down Avro arrow and Nortel and now trying to take down BlackBerry Make no mistake the US doesn t want Canada to become an economic power house We have the re sources the talent and man power to do anything. 180 Smoking Man on 03 19 15 at 12 39 pm 165 OMG on 03 19 15 at 9 43 am Ha, damn it, I m busted. I boast about being a masterfull skilled lier on a weekly basis Of course I m bull shiting about making 2 million in one day It was actually a bit more damn there I go again Lying I have issues 750 contracts 1 27901 2518 An imposably I m A compulsive lier some people collect stamps Get over yourself Over it already, just take it easy on the mendacities Your excursions into the netherworlds bounce too much The alien shit we can take, the womanizing, self-absorbed shit and such but get a hold of yourself when you start fabrications of colossal advances on the market We will start to skip past your best shit. 201, the US will never bomb us Get a grip, dude. So the people that created the system, made billions off of managing it, marketing it and then spreading it across the planet by selling collateralized mortgage backed securities have no blame BS. I didn t say that Both sides share some blame I just get tired of hearing that people get into debt trouble because of the big greedy bankers, or because of the Government, or immigrants or whatever the reason is except their own selves. living in Lillooet, BC. Nothing wrong with small towns IMO I don t see the point in living in TO or Van unless you need to be there for employment If moving to a smaller town, make sure there is accessible health care I know a guy who retired to Princeton BC from Vancouver and it was great until he needed medical care and he had to drive to Kamloops repeatedly. Lillooet may be a bit too small for my taste. 207 Finland is FINNISH on 03 19 15 at 1 10 pm.1 VUN total US 2 XIU tsx 60.both went down today while the indexes they follow went up It doesn t make sense to me. Can t speak for XIU, but VUN is unhedged and the US dollar dropped like a rock yesterday, so that s why VUN went down even though US markets were up I suspect you like today s results better. 208 Treasury Blonde on 03 19 15 at 1 14 pm. Appears that the MSM is slowly abandoning its current paymaster, the RE industry, and starting to make room for ads for collection agencies, grief, finance and marriage counselors Good times ahead. 209 Treasury Blonde on 03 19 15 at 1 18 pm. 164 Sheane Wallace on 03 19 15 at 9 32 am. Your money is a credit note owned by the bank and due to the bank You own nothing It is an illusion. As for the gas prices, it is normal, the executives need to maintain that profit margin that justifies their bonuses and this is all that matters. BTW gas in Toronto is 1 00 today. That vaporous illusion still seems to work really well for people and, amazingly, actually buys stuff Has done for ages. I saw know-it-all corporate robots like you coming down the pipe at the tender age of 19 I had more amusing things to think about, however, fortunately decided to prepare accordingly and devoted attention to understanding value and building a vault of illusion. As for so many executives and their screw-the-consumer profit margins, I always vote with my wallet and buy most everything at 50 -90 below retail Only fools pay retail is one of the tenets which can help create a lot of illusion. The choice belongs to the consumer either keep your illusion or hand it over to scummy little pinstripes. Your beloved executive army spends a gargantuan amount of time in the consumer optimization loop They almost always get it wrong, resulting in constant course correction, price reductions and huge corporate waste. Btw, you re paying too much for your gas. RE 203 tkid on 03 19 15 at 12 54 pm 201, the US will never bomb us Get a grip, dude. Exactly Why would you bomb your puppet. Yes, Babblemaster Let s review YOUR assumptions, shall we You ASSUME the whole thing is BS You ASSUME the whole thing is a charade You ASSUME there will probably be another QE You ASSUME that Peter Schiff is one to be believed, even though his track record is dismal. Yes, we know what happens when you assume. The word assume was used in the sense that since the Fed is providing no real candid guidance as to what they will do with rates I listened to Yellen s double-speak and she basically said nothing of substance , my question is, Are we to assume what she will do This is a perfec tly reasonable question to ask since the Fed just speaks carefully crafted BS with no real substance How could anyone listen to her and arrive at any other conclusion. So, your attack is not is simply not warranted Besides, my statements are ASSERTIONS based on my observations and reasoning They are not ASSUMPTIONS The assumption is to take for granted that the Fed will raise rates. So, let s take your comments one at a time. You ASSUME the whole thing is BS No, JimH, I assert the whole thing is a BS dog and pony show with no real substance. You ASSUME the whole thing is a charade No, same as above. You ASSUME there will probably be another QE No, I m of the OPINION that there will PROBABLY be another QE That s because I m of the belief that there is no real substantive recovery in the US, amongst other reasons. You ASSUME that Peter Schiff is one to be believed, even though his track record is dismal No I didn t say that, or even hinted at that Maybe, JimH, you re the one assuming that his track record is dismal While some of his calls have been somewhat off, he was actually spot on about the 2008 debacle So, his opinion deserves some respect Regardless, he makes a lot of sense in terms of the unsustainability of this endless QE crap He s the one telling us the emperor has no clothes and many people scoff at him because of that They just don t want to hear it. In other words, he epitomizes success and has a house that demonstrates it HonGT. Advanced Individual in Contributing to the Construction of Pukou , Outstanding Private Entrepreneur of Nanjing , Star of a Honoured Enterprise, and Model Worker of Nanjing City. InOtherNews PointGreyNeighbourhoodAssociation RescindsChen s RogueGardenOrnament DevelopmentPermit. SCMP China sheds light on its quest to track down fleeing officials. US federal prosecutors contend Zhao and Jianjun Qiao falsely claimed to be married and lied about their source of money to obtain US visas through an immigrant investor programme. An indictment unsealed on Tuesday in Los Angeles charges them with conspiracy and other crimes. 214 Treasury Blonde on 03 19 15 at 1 51 pm. 208 Treasury Blonde on 03 19 15 at 1 18 pm DELETED Defamatory - Garth, understand the Italians are now off limits But can we still stereotype the Germans. 215 Treasury Blonde on 03 19 15 at 1 52 pm. I wonder how long it will take RE agents to retrain to work as collection officers. 216 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 1 59 pm.184 industrial Guy on 03 19 15 at 11 21 am The point you are ignoring to address is that why do services charge 100 margin on top of the distributor s margin on parts they install. In a word they can. Professionals can only charge what the market will bear If no one was willing to pay the 100 margins these prices would fall. Sounds like a great business we should all get our gas fitters license. Do you prefer the US system where safety is driven by fear of a law suits and there are little or no requirements for professional competence I trust carpenters to hammer wood together Installing gas appliances not so much. Gas safety is not a straw dog remember the LaSalle Heights Disaster disaster. They can, because the system is rigged against the customers, who don t even know that the markup is 100.Contractors are not even willing to break down the cost of parts without their markup, even if requested. Go figure the market does not regulate the price. By the way, fear of lawsuit is probably a more effective safety guard than any license Licenses did not prevent to fall apart a mall in Canada, as we heard recently, causing fatalities. Stats is the only hard proof that which system is safer. But stop arguing about non CSA parts, non-licensed installers that s not the issue, as you are well aware of. The issue is that costumers should have the right and ability to know the price of the parts before markup and have the choice to purchase them from legit suppliers if the licensed technician wants to charge 100 markup. There you go everything is as safe as before and the market makes the 100 markup disappear instantly. What no tracking chips in them what is wrong with you. Pentagon Loses Track of 500 Million in Weapons, Equipment Given to Yemen by Craig Whitlock, Washington Post Military Weapons Given to Police have Gone Missing by Steve Straehley, AllGov. Uncle Sam s Favorite Corporations by Philip Mattera and Kasia Tarczynska March 2015 Identify ing the Large Companies that Dominate Federal Subsidies. 214 Treasury Blonde on 03 19 15 at 1 52 pm I wonder how long it will take RE agents to retrain to work as collection officers BEACH GIRL is that you. 219 Bailing in BC on 03 19 15 at 2 19 pm. Listen again That woman absolutely did not tell anyone to go back to where they came from so they can get their house. What she did say was Why can t they go back up to where they were before, then we would probably be able to find a place I believe that she was talking about mortgage rates She understands that if mortgage rates were higher house prices would go down One of our blog dogs perhaps Unfortunately the piece barely touched on it as it was one of the most interesting comments made. Also that Asian woman and everyone else in that segment sounded pretty Canadian to me I hope you weren t suggesting that they should go back to where they came from. 220 Ralph Cramdown on 03 19 15 at 2 21 pm. 212 Nemesis InOtherNews PointGreyNeighbourhoodAssociation RescindsChen s RogueGardenOrnament DevelopmentPermit. C mon, Nem Clumsily photoshopped banner aside, that photo is obviously of Chip Wilson s place. 221 DisgustMadeMePost on 03 19 15 at 2 26 pm. 175 Ralph Cramdown on 03 19 15 at 10 31 am. Re SCMP article. Well said I have to agree with you I have often wondered about our zeal for foreign money even if it means keeping our heads in the sand when looking at human rights violations Sometimes unbecoming of what I grew up believing about Canada. I know, I know Violins are playing But when I was young, I thought the Prime Minister sat next to God Was a shock, believe me But I digress. Also, curious if the new home was purchased with money made and taxed in Canada. Still unclear if he is a New Canadian or a foreign investor And yes it makes a difference So much is thrown around here about how there is no appreciable foreign money owning real estate here Well Is he a new Canadian Or is he not Irrelevant There is no law in Canada or the US preventing a non-citizen from buying property Garth. 222 DisgustMadeMePost on 03 19 15 at 2 39 pm. Of course it s relevant. If he s not a new Canadian then foreign money is clearly huge in at least YVR So lets stop pretending it isn t He happens to have a lot of it but think of how many foreign investors maybe only have enough for a 5 mil dollar place. Yes I know there is no law against but isn t that the point that a lot of blog patrons bring up MAKE ONE People on the street are feeling sold out. The regular schmoe, the one you ve been trying to educate, may be at risk of having the same thing happen to him and his vacation house in Arizona, but so what. Actually, I m inviting everyone over. OMG NOW you ve done it.1 VUN total US 2 XIU tsx 60.both went down today while the indexes they follow went up It doesn t make sense to me. There s an incredibly simple answer to your question XIU went ex-dividend yesterday So 15 cents was deducted from the NAV, and should have been added to the dividends receivable account by your broker. 215 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 1 59 pm. Your argument is so ridiculous, show me one business that is selling a product, any product that is not marked up how do you think businesses make money When you get your car fixed the part is marked up, your cost is not just labour, if you go to napa auto parts or any other part store to buy a part without a license you will get a part sold to you at retail, on the other hand the mechanic gets it at wholesale, that is the perk you get when you hold a license. when you buy a banana mango smoothie the fruits are marked up, that is the fact of business.100 markup is chump change, many products see hundreds and even thousands of in mark up at the cash register. Smokey don t take their shit man Of all people I know you don t care but just saying I used to skip his posts, now I word search to find them and it s laughter dressed with observation guaranteed Maybe it was the book, flak, or I just got his humour, but there s definitely been a change for the good on what he posts so cherish it. Dollar-a-day mortgage offered by B C condo developers. Yet another example of price cuts seen in the Vancouver RE market and, of course, downplayed covered up by the RE board and their statistics which fail to properly acknowledge the dramatic shift in the sales mix that we all know has occurred over the past 2 years The cost of such incentive must be in the several tens of thousands of dollars Really unfortunate that the Realtors aren t being fully forthright and up-front with the public with the state of the Toronto and Vancouver RE marketplaces and the declines seen there over the past 2 years. 50 Yes, the rents are skyrocketing in Hamilton Dundas Ancaster area Vacancy rate is suddenly very low at 1 probably because people are priced out Also, no one is interested in creating rentals maybe no money in that It s just scary here and if you have pets, you are screwed. 229 rosie moving forward in the knowledge that, this won t end well on 03 19 15 at 3 10 pm. If this story is any indication then the next federal budget is going to really be a doozy. When complaints come in continually racist or not the government should look into the matter with facts and figures weather you believe in it or not Who is buying and with what money This is not only for the Canadians but to protect money laundering from other countries I believe in law if found guilty, one cannot answer with I didn t know does not apply but maybe only with government only in democracy Capitalism versus Communism. 201 Pete on U S controlling us and we have the resources, the talent and manpower B C British Columbia is rich in resources and the States would love to own it If Alberta separates as mentioned in media , how long to you think B C would last in Canada Oh, on the other hand, how long would our politicians last with Anderson Cooper on CNN they watch every gesture Interesting times ahead When an activity non-citizens buying property is legal, why should the government investigate Garth. 95 Smoking Man on 03 18 15 at 10 12 pm Woman is all I m saying I have problems I know Honey Senica tomorrow night Ah she s smiling again. So the gambler is back at Seneca, Haven t been in a while going Sat with GF. 232 Sheane Wallace on 03 19 15 at 3 26 pm. It all depends on the timeframe, just wait. 233 Sheane Wallace on 03 19 15 at 3 28 pm. It seems we have more in common then differences It was a joke attempt. I loved your original posting I migth trade mark it with your permission. Garth You said First the massive 85 billion a month bond-snorfling program was ended last autumn. Maybe I don t understand but if they stopped buying when do they start selling or do they And what will happen if they start selling. 235 rosie moving forward in the knowledge that, this won t end well on 03 19 15 at 3 58 pm. A reprieve, sort of Still these people need a union, 1 00 p hr is patronizing Fun to watch the cons squirm though. email protected TheBritishTemplate, Or FiftyShadesOfSodomy Osborne sBudget WithALittleHelpFromSteveBell. Guardian George Osborne s last budget before the election was full of giveaways. Guardian Clinical commissioning groups are looking for private company to take on 1 2bn contract in biggest privatisation of NHS services yet. Cancer care for patients in Staffordshire could be cut after it is taken over by profit-driven firms in the biggest privatisation of NHS services yet, campaigners are warning. Handing the 700m contract to the private sector could see hospices closed, less money being spent on treatment and patients left at risk of experiencing poor care, they claim. The fears follow the publication on Monday of a secret document prepared by the four local NHS clinical commissioning groups CCGs in Staffordshire involved in the outsourcing deal to rouse interest in the contract among private firms. 237 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 4 07 pm. when you buy a banana mango smoothie the fruits are marked up, that is the fact of business.100 markup is chump change, many products see hundreds and even thousands of in mark up at the cash register. Learn to read nobody was arguing against markup. Name me any equipment for residental consumer market with hundreds and even thousands of in mark up at the cash register on top of the distributor price. You are sloppy, I would never hire you as RE agent. 45 the show must go on on 03 18 15 at 8 06 pm 14 Sideshow Rob on 03 18 15 at 7 07 pm. That steaming bag that Bernanke left on your desk wasn t lunch Sideshow, that is funny lol but true Bernanke bailed before TSHTF. Bernanke would never have a problem refinancing his mortgage in canaduh, i d tell you what I guess that says pretty much all about the difference between yanks and canada in terms of easy money. 73 Roial1 on 03 18 15 at 9 20 pm. Garth, or anyone, Can you explain this. Oil is 100 bl Gas 1 35 Oil 50 gas 90 Oil 43 gas 1 20pare those prices and when they were, to what our dollar was trading at It will all come together. 218 Bailing in BC. Maybe you are right, just sounded odd when I heard it No, I wasn t insinuating that at all. 241 Oil Is Sticky on 03 19 15 at 4 29 pm. Okay its time to hear some FEAR PORN about why we must have rate hikes. 242 Oil Is Sticky on 03 19 15 at 4 36 pm. 201 Pete on 03 19 15 at 12 40 pm john on 03 19 15 at 1 10 am Why is nobody complaining about this. Oil is 100 bl Gas 1 35 Oil 50 gas 90 Oil 43 gas 1 20.Let s see me I m Canadian Canadians are sheep The only difference between Canada and Russia is the AK-47. 175 Ralph Cramdown. When they call you a racist it means they re losing the debate. Your points are well stated I d just add that whenever you hear about a Chinese anti-corruption drive you should take it with a grain of salt These crusades against corruption are either 1 the Chinese version of boob bait for bubbas or 2 very selective action against corruptocrats which is actually a struggle between party factions An enormous amount of money will continue to flow out of China everyone who s gotten some wants a foreign bolthole. 66 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 03 18 15 at 9 07 pm Rates will raise this year, guarantee it Perhaps third quarter but Garth is correct Sorry kiddies the free ride is over Oh it s going to be hell out there with all of the minions of house horny overstuffed people saying WTF happened Karma baby. Well now that you ve sold your oakville mcmansion, I know you would be going to the dark side. Attention Basement Dwellers You have a new member for your team, he s a pilot Old all the same, perhaps he can be trained to fly drones Drop bombs on real estate hawks. On behafe of all the proud Home owners of Greater Fool. We bid you farewell and good luck, with you new friends. 245 waiting on the westcoast on 03 19 15 at 4 52 pm. 240 Oil Is Sticky on 03 19 15 at 4 36 pm. Let s me I m Canadian Canadians are sheep The only difference between Canada and Russia is the AK-47.and the will to use it although, I am happy for those differences. 236 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 4 07 pm. Next time you order a smoothie ask them to break down the banana, mango, labour and all business costs, ask them what the mark up is LOL, the WTF look you get afterwards will reveal how ridiculous your whining is. Whiners like you get fired as clients not hired, a business practice followed by anyone successful. The 19-storey 144 Park building at the corner of Park Street and Allen Street West contains 149 units, 129 of which have been sold, but liens against the property mean Mady is unable to close the deals on the remaining 20 units or provide the current owners with titles to their property. 248 Bottom Feeder on 03 19 15 at 5 50 pm. RE 24 Oil is Sticky and 210 Pete. Sorry number 24 Check your numbers better I believe you are saying gasoline was 1 35 when oil was 100 bbl and 1 20 when oil is 43 bbl like right now. There is no place in Canada where the numbers are in that proportion If you think there is tell me the city and I will check it with Gas Buddy charts that are available at Enjoy your cheap gas. If I were to ask the agents in this office, some of them would say up to 75 of their business is based on oil, said Valarie Sampson, a real estate agent in the Cape Breton city of Sydney. Sampson says that though sales are slowing, she does not expect to see the full effect of the oil downturn until the spring, when sales are usually the busiest. The largest airport in Cape Breton saw passenger numbers fall by 1 9 in January and then 4 8 in February, a drop airport officials are attributing in part to oil worker related traffic. Helen MacInnis, the airport s chief executive, said much of that decline followed a decision by the charter service Canadian North to halve the number of flights between Sydney and Fort McMurray. Ron MacDonald, general manager of Cape Breton-based dealership MacDonald Auto Group, said sales of the big, expensive pick-up trucks favored by oil sands workers have recently slowed down. They re not sure about their jobs right now, he said. 250 Oil Is Sticky on 03 19 15 at 6 33 pm. 246 Bottom Feeder on 03 19 15 at 5 50 pm RE 24 Oil is Sticky and 210 Pete. Sorry number 24 Check your numbers better I believe you are saying gasoline was 1 35 when oil was 100 bbl and 1 20 when oil is 43 bbl like right now. There is no place in Canada where the numbers are in that proportion If you think there is tell me the city and I will check it with Gas Buddy charts that are available at Enjoy your cheap gas. Cheap gas huh 1 20 is cheap You must be one of those I make 100K working for the govt people. Mark The current regime, where the mortgage lenders will simply put the paper to the CMHC if it defaults, rather than deal with assumptions and dollar sales, guarantees a much different landscape than we saw in the 1980s though Liquidation will be far more rapid and violent I predict than the relatively slow melt experienced in the 80s and 90s for Alberta RE. in Ontario, the banks have power of sale Presumably they must exercise it in order to have a claim This takes some time 90 days I think Are you talking about Alberta only. Travelin Fool China now claims that as much as 1 4 trillion dollars has gone unaccounted for and they are launching a massive audit of all COE s around the globe. which basically backs up this article by Michael Shedlock Hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who has a long-running bet against China, said that the country s credit bubble was starting to cause capital outflows to accelerate and may ultimately lead to weakness in the nation s currency. nonplused The process by which oil was created is quite well understood. thanks for that. norstarr so lets play the numbers and place bets on the fed budget bet large on a reining in of CHMC look for lower principal purchase price limits. I d like to think so. 252 industrial Guy on 03 19 15 at 8 04 pm. 215 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 1 59 pm. Clearly business is a mystery to you. The issue is that costumers should have the right and ability to know the price of the parts before markup and have the choice to purchase them from legit suppliers if the licensed technician wants to charge 100 markup. No phone around If all the licensed suppliers are charging the same price you have two choices Pay that price or enroll in a licensed gas fitters course at the local College. Let me make this clear I don t want you installing or repairing your own gas appliances unless you have the proper training When your house is launched into low orbit, it s going to destroy mine and probably the rest of the neighborhood. Sorry, no cheap parts for you. 253 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 9 38 pm.252 industrial Guy. Clearly you have reading comprehension problem. Not once ever i did write or hinted that an unlicensed person should install the parts. 254 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 9 45 pm. Smoothie Do you have a bridge to sell. 255 industrial Guy on 03 20 15 at 1 17 am. 253 margin disappear on 03 19 15 at 9 38 pm. Your comment is funny in ways you can not imagine. It is you who simply doesn t understand how business operates If I can make a 100 margin on a product I will If not, my competitor will. Only a fool would provide the client with a statement outlining the margins on each sale That information isn t even shared with the Government. What is an acceptable margin 10 15 50.100 margin that s the market price That s what the market will bear sir, so honestly, get over it. Well, the site is called the greater fool after all. 256 margin disappear on 03 20 15 at 11 25 am. Maybe you just want to be entertaining when backpedalling randomly from one set of argument to an other. Now randomly switching from safety to lecturing how business operates. You just can t connect the dots how market price is rigged under non-transparent market conditions. That s fine After all you are an industrial guy. The FRB stopped QE However. ECB is doing QE BoJ is doing QE. With China s economy slowing, PBoC may start doing QE. As you say, Garth, bond markets set long-term rates But a couple of the developed world s major central banks are intervening in the bond market in manner similar to the Fed. Financial markets are global Yield-hungry Europeans may end up buying bundles of Canadian mortgages and thanking God that the interest isn t negative. The moaning and dribbling experienced here yesterday when I suggested a 24-year-old male was no kid and should be ejected from his parent s root cellar was, ah, interesting It s hard to know now wh en adulthood starts At thirty When you get your first condo Three decades before retirement When your mom stops washing your shorts. Those who want twentysomethings treated as dependent children invariably have economic reasons No jobs, they say The kid ll be homeless So adult children end up like giant eight-year-olds, assuming they have no mobility, freedom or personal responsibility Hard to see how helicopter parenting does much for experience, which is the foundation of maturity. Of greater concern, though, is what this often does to parental finances The numbers shared here yesterday are a shocker almost half of all Canadians spend 100 of their incomes on houses and kids, putting nothing aside for the future And half over 50 have just a fraction one quarter saved of what they ll need to retire a decade later In other words, they ain t going to make it It s a fair bet a lot of them have Millennial things in the basement, contributing nothing to the home despite expensive educations. T his underscores the fragility of household finance With 1 75 trillion in mortgage and personal debt and the certainty of rate increases next year, plus a 3 savings rate, things aren t going too well No wonder wealth is drifting up to the investor class while debt drifts down to what s left of the middle class The TSX gained 27 in the past year and the S P is up 21 , while inflation is 2 and houses grew an average of 5 Real estate also has massive buying and selling costs, ongoing property tax, insurance and maintenance payments and often strata fees. Unless there are sustained capital gains each and every year in the property market, things aren t going to end well for a lot of people who have rolled the dice on a one-asset strategy Almost 60 of Canadian households have mortgages That s 5 6 million families, while another 2 2 million have home equity lines of credit The average mortgage rate is 3 2 , and even at that historically-low level most folks are saving nothing Just imagine when mortgages again average 5 which is still a relative bargain. The Bank of Canada has crunched the numbers They re ugly If five-year mortgage rates average just 4 then mortgage payments would become the most unaffordable in 16 years If interest rates rise 2 in general and they will, without a doubt then 10 of households with mortgages can no longer afford them That s more than enough to push over the entire market. At the heart of this threat to the middle class is the notion that houses are investments not places to live so if you have one you don t need to invest in anything else That s how we got a 70 home ownership rate and a 3 savings rate. This is also what screwing up the kids heads. Adulthood s now equated with real estate ownership Parents coddle the adultettes until they land a job, tell them renting is throwing their money away, and encourage them to leap from the basement to the 23rd floor even when that means shouldering big debt and living paycheque to paycheque So much for mo ving three provinces away to land the best job and launch a career. The condo mavens know this Like Vancouver s Bosa Properties It just hatched a scheme to ensnare the young called an equity plan, to offer hope to Vancouverites who feel like they ll never be able to afford their own homes A small 15 amount of monthly rent goes to loyalty points which can be used later as partial downpayment for a Bosa condo After two years, it earns a 5,700 credit towards a unit so the buyer can start owning the same unit they ve been living in, and pay twice the monthly load. Well, this pathetic blog has been warning people about the one-horse portfolio for years now Millions have ignored me They won t stop. This week Reuters ran a significant story on the real estate party raging in Canada that the rest of the world is watching like a head-on collision YouTube vid Morningstar equity analyst Dan Werner summed things up pretty well. If you start looking at your house as an investment class, as something el se you should be investing in rather than the stock market, you run into the danger of being exposed to some of the excesses going on in the system There is this euphoria when you are within an up-housing market We fell into it that here I don t want to say Canadians are in a party mode, but they are thinking, What can possibly go wrong if prices keep going up It s going to end badly. Of course it will end badly Meanwhile misguided parents churn out Millennials who feel entitled to leap from their childhood homes into granite-laden, debt-drenched digs, thinking this is what adults do. What could possibly go wrong.218 comments. Just as a bad cold leads to pneumonia, so over-indebtedness leads to deflation, wrote the US economist Irving Fisher in 1933. 32 David Lee on 09 10 14 at 7 24 pm 3rd attempt 153 Mark yesterday s post. They talk as though a housing correction hasn t even begun Even though evidence of such having been in progress for more than a year now is quite abundant. Again not a challenge, just looking for some help in Vancouver. Please point e g by providing links to where you are getting your data from such that you can say that evidence is quite abundant. Any help would be appreciated. So there you have it folks Mark annoyingly replies to a dozen or more posts every single day Even posts where he is asked to please not post his unwanted opinion Actually he doesn t reply to posts he voices his opinion on just about every subject matter that one can think of He is just that smart But above you can see a post actually asking for Mark to reply and crickets. So Mark please put up or shut up Here again is the request Please point e g by providing links to where you are getting your data from such that you can say that evidence is quite abundant. Garth I think total household credit in Canada is closer to 1 75 trillion. 4 Retired Boomer - WI on 09 11 14 at 5 35 pm. Your kids are NOT entitled to a dam thing They are NOT entitled to anything FREE from you after the age of majority No free room, no free board, and no FREE higher education. That said, if you wish to assist with things after the age of majority 18 here it is your right, but NOT your responsibility. The best balanced young people are those that learned to balance a checkbook, job, and earned their own way early. I m proof Not a fan of higher education, but dam sure a fan of working smart, saving early, and not listening to well meaning, but usually mis-directed advice. My 43 year old colleague just told me a couple hours ago that I will only leave my parents basement where he pays 200 month when I can afford to buy a 2BD downtown apartment in Vancouver with 20 down-payment to avoid CMHC fees He lives with his wife and also mentioned that their parents took out a LOC for them, secured against the house of course so that they can pay off 17000 in CC debt He actually thinks that they are doing great now that they don t have CC debt, he thinks of themselves almost as being well off Shocking I guess it will take them another 20 years to scrap that down-payment together, or of course they can just ask the parents to get a bigger LOC Wow, just Wow. How do you feel about upcoming foreclosure sales in Toronto and Vancouver Will deals be made How do you see it spanning out over the next few years. Don t fall for that Garth. I have found it interesting in life, that often the most successful young people I have had the pleasure to meet, received very little from their parents, beyond the necessities of life, encouragement and vocal support. Also interesting that a past study conducted by Harvard University among their own top students, revealed the common theme that the intelligent, creative, high achievers all had parents who set normal guidelines, but beyond those they allowed their children the freedom to make their own choices. Helicopte r parenting isn t healthy for anyone involved, and has the potential to be financially devastating for people trying to fund their own retirement, while still supporting their adult children possibly still looking after elderly parents. The greatest gift we can give our kids is independence and freedom the down payment on a huge debt. 9 common sense on 09 11 14 at 5 59 pm. I sent my kid away to university in a distant city at 18 He has been on his own ever since We paid his tuition through grad school, but he s had to work to pay for himself sometimes working 2 jobs plus school We always pushed him to work harder when he called home experiencing youthful reluctance. He s independent now has a small business in the entertainment industry, wouldn t think of moving home I m proud of ourselves for having been tough parents We got a stand alone winner out of it. The stigma of living in mom s basement or paying 1,500 per month for a mortgage that will only increase in 4 years Decisions, decisions. 11 Casual Observer on 09 11 14 at 6 05 pm. so the buyer can start owning the same unit they ve been living in, and pay twice the monthly load. I ve tried to explain this to people but they just don t get it. They usually say, Well at least you ll own something at the end of paying your mortgage When you rent, you end up owning nothing. I say, I ve run the numbers and they say I m further ahead if I rent and invest the difference. To which they say, Yeah, but you ll have to pay rent for the rest of your life. I explain that you have to pay either way Monthly costs don t disappear just because you own your home free and clear. They only look at the mortgage payment vs rent and don t realize that even if you own your dwelling, you still have to pay property taxes, strata fees, maintenance, etc. So Mark please put up or shut up. Why don t you Asking the same darn question when the response was already given to you many times previously really is little more than trolling. It is simply not my job to educate you on the differences between mean and median Or on various statistical concepts Canada has a significant number of institutions of higher learning for which you can go study if you are unclear of these concepts, or the effects of sampling in statistical analysis. Of course it will end badly Meanwhile misguided parents churn out Millennials who feel entitled to leap from their childhood homes into granite-laden, debt-drenched digs, thinking this is what adults do. I d personally say its a self-fulfilling prophecy Misguided people invested heavily into housing, rather than into equity and business formation The kids hence, can t get jobs because industry is comatose and hasn t hired in any significant numbers since the last millennia Hence, they re stuck in the basements, which further reinforces the need for boomers to hold excess real estate and to put rationalization of their lives on hold although I m not convinced that many would be eager sellers. The problem here clearly is in the 900B of CMHC subprime mortgage guarantees emitted to get the housing bubble off the ground, rather than free market allocation of capital. And Garth is right, it won t end well for many, but there are some excellent opportunities coming to be a beneficiary of the inevitable snap-back. 13 dipstick running russia on 09 11 14 at 6 09 pm. You got to love capitalism. One generation works hard and if lucky accumulates wealth Second generation if properly brought up maintains that wealth. Third generation spends it. Teach your kid skills, to reposes wealth from spoiled lazy lululemonized starbuckers of today. On the other note got email from Russia and VP himself. Dear Garth, i am so sorry that your portfolio is not what you would like to be You calling me names strike me into my hart, and i decided to. Sign off all oil fields to Imperial oil All financial institutions to Goldman Saks and we will as of tomorrow start using US dollar we will never question US gold reserves We will give control of Yakutia and all diamond mines to DeBeers also Titanium mines all 18 of them you can have if you want. If interest rates rise 2 in general and they will, without a doubt then 10 of households with mortgages can no longer afford them That s more than enough to push over the entire market - Ga rth I do, have my doubts about a 2 rate increase Growth is just way to weak. I will bet you a shiny Gold Maple I d have to buy one the BOC does not raise the rate by a full 2 in the next 24 months. What say you Garth, not trying to be a dick, would just really like a free ounce of Gold. I guess it will take them another 20 years to scrap that down-payment together, or of course they can just ask the parents to get a bigger LOC Wow, just Wow. Your 43-year-old colleague, believe it or not, is likely in better financial shape than most Negative equity means, in many cases, renters, newborns, and even that homeless guy begging on the street, are in fact significantly more wealthy than those living in houses which are worth less than the mortgage. The credit card debt and asking the folks to pay it is pretty despicable though. 16 OttawaguyRenting Worried but not too worried still a worrier but look on the brightside on 09 11 14 at 6 16 pm. How ugly will it get. I see the house horned all around me Couples now thinking about investment property down south with equity they have in their house here 5 7 year ownership. Rent and you can go anywhere Rent and you don t worry about the fact a piece of the chimney blew off the house today. how will you retire without a house She asked me. Oh my goooodness HOW will I retire. 17 Happy Renting on 09 11 14 at 6 19 pm. Is it that parents make the family home too comfortable, that adult kids want to stay I was eager to fly from the nest and have my own place so I could have my own space, have friends or a date over, and do whatever I wanted. Parents with boomerang kids, nag your children more That sure worked on me. 18 FormerSaskie on 09 11 14 at 6 20 pm. Age 43, married and living in parents basement OMG Horrible for all of them. 19 A Yank in BC on 09 11 14 at 6 21 pm. My parents were financially upper middle-class, but never had anything more than linoleum on the floor of their kitchen, with Formica countertops and plain-faced appliances Eating out was perhaps twice a month at most Their happiness in life and with each other just didn t depend on spending money they didn t have on luxury items in a hopeless pursuit of the perfect life How sad it is that this generation seems to think the opposite. 20 Happy Renting on 09 11 14 at 6 22 pm. 4 Retired Boomer WI on 09 11 14 at 5 35 pm. Careful, Kylie the Millennial is coming for you You can t call someone dependent and entitled when they gasp pay their own cellphone bill. 21 Casual Observer on 09 11 14 at 6 23 pm. Just as a bad cold leads to pneumonia, so over-indebtedness leads to deflation, wrote the US economist Irving Fisher in 1933.This was written during a time when the US was on the gold standard The US Gov t could not have engaged in the same amount of money printing that is going on throughout the world today. While Central Bankers have massively expanded the monetary base, it has not been inflationary besides asset prices because of the collapse in the velocity of money. If velocity stays low, things will remain tilted towards deflation, but as soon as velocity picks up, inflation will be the bigger concern. Oil might not be as high as it s been over the last 2 years You might have noticed oil stocks taking a hit lately Could that impact Alberta s economy and cool their real-estate prices. 23 crossbordershopper on 09 11 14 at 6 28 pm. why save anything for what retirement who cares i do taxes for 2000 people a year, in the seniors catagory, i have millionaires basically paid off house plus cottage 80 year olds worried everyday about their portfolio etc Then i have ivan, worked at the steel mill, 30 years, gets 2 5k month plus goverment cheques and saved, well zero i asked you should be rich or atleast have a house he said, i had a real good time in life, wine women and song and worked for it he said i came to canada in 61 with a suitcase and i am leaving this world with the same suitecase ivan is funny, the old widows with money are quite borring. 24 Doug in London on 09 11 14 at 6 29 pm. These Boomer parents should know better Having seen real estate corrections before I remember one in the early 1980s and another in the early 1990s they should be advising their Millennial kids that another is long overdue whether they live with their parents or not. Canada should introduce a program to ease affordability for lower income families like they have here in the UK. For some reason I found the term adultettes hilarious. 27 Steve French on 09 11 14 at 6 30 pm. I ve got 40 K sitting on the sidelines What should I do with it. I do, have my doubts about a 2 rate increase Growth is just way to weak. I will bet you a shiny Gold Maple I d have to buy one the BOC does not raise the rate by a full 2 in the next 24 months. But what about the banks simply deciding to pull away from the mortgage market because of increasing risk The BoC doesn t need to change its policy rate for mortgage rates to rise. I agree, in principle, that policy rates are likely to remain suppressed for a long time to come But as time goes on, mortgage rates are likely to rise as risk aversion comes back to the RE lending marketplace, and other asset classes present themselves as being hotter investment prospects than RE stuck in a secular decline. 29 OttawaguyRenting Worried but not too worried still a worrier but look on the brightside on 09 11 14 at 6 42 pm. 11 They only look at the mortgage payment vs rent and don t realize that even if you own your dwelling, you still have to pay property taxes, strata fees, maintenance, etc. There is a piece of the chimney in the back yard of the house today D. Ain t my problemO LOLs. That has been my biggest surprise going from Ownership to Renting Savings on upkeep. I don t own power tools Home Depot Lowes WTF is that Renting includes Weekends not worrying about the grass Weeknights not trying to keep up with the Jones by interlocking the walk way Hey LOSER that interlocked 3X4 walk way HHAHAHAHHAHAA I bet your wife thought it would loook awesome. What a waste you cow off to slaughter. Renting also means that when the time comes to move cause I need to make more somewhere else or as my boss put it you pick the city we will send you I am goooooone in 3 shakes. As a 23 year old prairie kid, where does this sense of an entitled youth come from Myself and my friends all have well paying jobs, are currently rent ing apartments and job prospects look great Is this current millennial situation you re talking about only an Ontario BC thing. It s fine if a 24-year-old lives with family if s he pays market room and board cost with the exception of a disabled individual. I m 26 I never had a problem finding a job since the age of 18, I was never unemployed for longer than 3 weeks not even in Qubec during the recession and je suis anglophone Because I worked my bum off during university, not only did I have a full resume which helped me land my adult job, it also ensured I had no student loans my dad paid my 70 month cell bill while I was in uni, other than that I was self-supporting I now earn the same as my parents combined income If I visit for longer than a week, I buy a load of groceries just like I would do if I stayed at a friends house for a week It s just called being a self-supporting, self-respecting, non-mooching adult. 27 Steve French on 09 11 14 at 6 30 pmI ve got 40 K sitting on the sidelines What should I do with it. Safe Come up with an extra 110k total 150k and buy into Romspon mortgage fund, see above link 10 a year, coupons paid monthly Got 2 big bills in that one. Risk Learn to count cards, black Jack. Or wait for batman, then short the S P might be awhile. Stay away from Forex Only Alians with Esp can win at that game. Totally agree Garth 24 ADULT, so many think they are still Kids I think in part it s due to the time and often parents money they spend educating themselves My eldest who self financed her way through university ended up with 2 degrees, she now works in a research lab making diddly squat the last I heard But then she doesn t have to worry about money right since her BF does make money This is not a gender slight btw, I believe in equality of the genders, so many don t. 34 - aka Devil s Advocate on 09 11 14 at 6 57 pm. You reap what you sow. Maybe some of these parents should take a good long look in the mirror and ask themselves, who really is to blame for the state of their adult child s finances. There are an abundance of opportunities out there all one needs to take advantage of them is a good attitude A parent has a whole lot to do with the general state of mind their child adopts. Too many postpone costs Too many are too horny for other things right now than to make sacrifices toward banking for something that will be more important to them in the future. You can pay now or you can pay later. Clearly those with adult children still at home have not yet done their job in raising them in the first place. The Bank of Canada has crunched the numbers They re ugly If five-year mortgage rates average just 4 then mortgage payments would become the most unaffordable in 16 years If interest rates rise 2 in general and they will, without a doubt then 10 of households with mortgages can no longer afford them That s more than enough to push over the entire market Garth. I hope you are not gloating over the prospect because, trust me, if that plays out the way you suggest it, ultimately, will not be good for anyone you included I agree, interest rates are, eventually, going to head North of twice what they are Of that there is no question it s just a matter of time We know it s coming Do you really think they will allow, all things being equal, the consequence of that Not a chance. Rising interest rates are without a doubt the Black Swan looming on the horizon I say Black Swan merely because everyone seems to simply be looking past it. Anyone, and I mean ANYONE, dealing with me who is considering a p urchase of which more than 50 is going to be financed I ALWAYS tell Do your budget calculations based on at least a 7 0 interest rate If they balk I show them that rates were in excess of 20 in 1982 It happened then and it can happen again Worst case they have some slack in their budget for a date night here and there. But the bottom line is THEY won t let what would happen happen They might not be so proactive as to prevent it but rest assured they will be attentive enough to FIX it And like last time it will cost us all, collectively, billions. I bet Ivan has paid into a private pension at the steel mill for the 30 years he worked there, which likely makes up the bulk of his 2500 m Most people now do not have that unless they work for the public sector. I do agree with you that there are a lot of seniors out there that will leave millions to their kids After a lifetime of scrimping and saving it hard for them to get into spending mode I know of a couple of cases and the boomer kids are having a great time spending all their inheritance There parents would be rolling over in their graves. 36 - aka Devil s Advocate on 09 11 14 at 7 09 pm. Today s society is hooked on a drug and that drug s called credit It s what allows them to escape the reality of this Ponzi scheme economy Almost makes you wonder if it actually is a conspiracy. Free ounce of Gold Any takers See post 14. 38 - aka Devil s Advocate on 09 11 14 at 7 15 pm. 23 crossbordershopper on 09 11 14 at 6 28 pm. Ivan is a DUDE who has it figured out Good on you Ivan. 39 - aka Devil s Advocate on 09 11 14 at 7 23 pm. 14 Blacksheep on 09 11 14 at 6 09 pm. I will bet you a shiny Gold Maple I d have to buy one the BOC does not raise the rate by a full 2 in the next 24 months. The Bank of Canada may not have anything to do with it The BOND MARKET is the mother of everything that happens Check it out The stock market is but a pimple compared to the bond market mountain That aside, you have picked a mere 24 months so your bet may well be safe Beyond that. 40 - aka Devil s Advocate on 09 11 14 at 7 26 pm. What instrument was most influential in the defeat of Napoleon at the Battle of Waterloo. The bond market. 41 - aka Devil s Advocate on 09 11 14 at 7 27 pm. No seriously, check out the backstory. 42 NostyVlad the Snugglebombed on 09 11 14 at 7 33 pm. 7 Ardy on 09 11 14 at 5 55 pm The greatest gift we can give our kids is independence and the down payment on a huge debt. Well said Our youngest left home when he was about 19 30 now , and when he saw the money he earned, chose to stay there Alberta Our eldest moved out a few months ago, and they re both well set up. Let kids make their own mistakes and learn from them We did 147 Kenchie on 09 11 14 at 8 51 am China is a beacon of economic stability in a profligate world. This world is a highly-dysfunctional cornucopia of paradoxes, highs lows, heavens hells etc and it is supposed to be that way For example Freedom Scotland, Catalans, Texas and Alaska. China may be down on the one hand, but Russia and China s new SWIFT alternative is yet another step away from the PD, along with the newly-created New Development Bank Inflation 63 4 Which South American country has a shitload of oil Destroy the country s then feed off the carcass. 163 Smoking Man on 09 11 14 at 12 11 pm Some very bad ass people in the world. The School of Hard Knocks Means the sometimes painful education one gets from life s usually negative experiences it is what s needed and it s what memories are made of Coddling accomplishes nothing. A new report out today from the CD Howe Institute suggests Canadians are doing better at saving for retirement than most people think. You know Garth that you and Bank of Canada are part of the filthy greedy system and this illusionary system will fall. And your dumb, childish blog will disappear. Let me guess 24 Live at home Mom does your shorts MA in Egyptology Garth. The bankers get bailed out from the financial crisis that many of them helped create, but the kid in the basement who s trying to save money to overcome the bubble it created doesn t get any love What gives Time for our leaders to set a better example Leave the poor kid alone. Canadian dollar sinks amid amazing race to the bottom for world currencies. Ye sterday, for example, Capital Economics forecast that the Canadian currency will end the year at 89 cents, and next year at 86 cents. Also yesterday, BMO forecast that the loonie, which has lost about 6 per cent over the last year, will sink to 88 cents in 2015.Just today, chief economist Craig Wright of Royal Bank of Canada predicted an 87-cent loonie this year, with further erosion to 85 cents next year as the U S dollar gains and interest rates start to climb. Of late, noted BMO s chief economist, Douglas Porter, the Canadian dollar has weakened on a stronger U S currency and the decline in oil prices. 49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09 11 14 at 7 51 pm. Downtown Van a few weeks back Waitress serving us at a pub starts chatting She s mid 30 s lots of tats on the arms, loves waitressing No plans for the future Lives paycheque to paycheque bummed a smoke off my friend Very skinny, twitchy, looks like the beginning of a crack addict believe me I know crack addicts Anywho, nice girl Last weekend my friend is back drinking at the bar This girl is off shift and is Smoking Man hammered Gooned Her parents are there, its her birthday Her parents confided to my friend that they give her everything Car, free rent condo, pay her bills, etc So whats this girl do with her own money Spends it ALL on drugs Parents Killing her with kindness Tough love needed. Shocking SimplyShocking OverEducated UnemployedMillenials Expecting2ndChild StillLivingInMum s Basement Suite. PaeanToIvan NoHelicopterParentingHere JustWeatherBalloons HowFarCanAnAverageJoeGo SpoilerAlert TheVillainessIsA Redacted. You have picked a mere 24 months so your bet may well be safe Beyond that I said I d really like a free ounce of Gold not, I really want to give away an ounce of Gold. 52 TEMPORARY Foreign Prime Minister on 09 11 14 at 7 53 pm. wonder wealth is drifting up to the investor class while debt drifts down to what s left of the middle class. Just as the Canadian government was lobbied to do. Good thing Harper spent millions locating an old wooden bathtub at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean That s got to be worth something in the pockets of Canadians. Adulthood s now equated with real estate ownership Parents coddle the adultettes until they land a job, tell them renting is throwing their money away, and encourage them to leap from the basement to the 23rd floor even when that means shouldering big debt and living paycheque to paycheque So much for moving three provinces away to land the best job and launch a career. Totally agreed, Mr Turner. A child of immigrants, and having the majority of my millennial friends being the same, there is definitely groupthink going on about house-ownership being the holy grail of status I blame immigration joke. I noticed early on that my white friends, who are multi-generational Canadian, almost all moved out of their parents houses within the first year, and up to 3 years, since graduating high school. Meanwhile, those of us whose parents hail from the Eurasian continent had a vastly different post-high school experience. Both parental strategies have their benefits and costs I was definitely a late-bloomer But now, I am kicking many of my friends ass, financially-speaking So that s why I have some sympathy for this 24 yo kid. PS My family is a microcosm of the cultural dichotomy my Western European parent was happy to kick us out at age 18, but my Asian parent said no, it s a waste of money Funnily enough, my Euro parent blamed my Asian parent for being too soft on us. 54 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09 11 14 at 7 54 pm. Yo Not an Economist Did you read 31 Nattie Seems to have figured out how to make it Have YOU figured it out yet. Judging from the comments by Funny that on my question re pointing me in the right direction for the ample evidence you ve mentioned in previous posts , I gather other bloggers here may have some issues with you. I m honestly trying to get some data which I can use to justify my position on housing in Vancouver I sold my house here in 2011 and I am waiting. In your response to Funny that , you indicate that you ve given the response to my question previously Please let me know around which dates you provided this response and I will search through Garth s archives to find them myself. I m guessing from your mention of mean and median in your reply to Funny that that you re implying one or the other is used by the real estate boards when it suits their purposes AND that with the mean being higher than the median, the distribution is skewed by the few sales of very high priced homes e g in Vancouver West and that the weight of the distribution is a the lower end Is that what you re saying. Again, any help would be appreciated. To rephrase it for Reuters the people with homes will lose a lot less than the people holding stocks Both will take a bath but the ones in stocks will be wiped out entirely. 21 Casual Observer. Thanks for the response There s lot to learn about this economic stuff That s why I keep on checking out this pathetic blog. Its going to be interesting to see if the zero interest rates and money printing policies implemented by the major central banks of the world in response to the global financial crisis can solve the two major problems we in Canada and the rest of the developed world have, which I heard described nicely by a financial analyst on a money show on a Vancouver, B C radio station back in December, 2010.Way more money has been borrowed than will ever get repaid. Way more promises have been made by governments and so on than will ever be kept. I call them losers These are the people that are unwilling to move to where the work is so instead they milk off ma and pa The crazy part is their parents defend them, as if adults needs their parents defence. I swear this country has raised a generation of pansies, its pathetic. 59 - aka Devil s Advocate on 09 11 14 at 8 08 pm. 35 Omg on 09 11 14 at 7 09 pm 23 crossbordershopper. I do agree with you that there are a lot of seniors out there that will leave millions to their kids After a lifetime of scrimping and saving it hard for them to get into spending mode I know of a couple of cases and the boomer kids are having a great time spending all their inheritance There parents would be rolling over in their graves. Those parents maybe should have taken a page out of Ivan s book and lived it up a little instead of saving and waiting for a day that may never come. 60 Setting the Record Straight on 09 11 14 at 8 08 pm. Mark, if you do listen to ARAmry, remember that Von Mises work has been criticized by a other ASOE professors, such as F A Hayek, and b Chicago School of Economics professors, such as Milton Friedman, and c pretty much every other notable economist since the 1980s. 61 - aka Devil s Advocate on 09 11 14 at 8 11 pm. 50 Blacksheep on 09 11 14 at 7 52 pm. Buzzingo You slammed me. OT 9 11 Flight 93.We visited the National Memorial Site of Flight 93 in Pennsylvania There were 33 passengers and 7 crew members on board This flight was delayed on the tarmac for 25 minutes before takeoff, causing it to be out of sync with the other hijacked planes Thus, when the plane was hijacked 46 minutes into the flight, the passengers had the added burden of already knowing the fate of the other planes. They decided to fight back An unlikely collection of people to be fighting terrorist among them an older couple, a pregnant woman, three students, five flight attendants Ordinary people taking extraordinary action They fought for 6 minutes, keeping the plane from reaching its target, the Nations Capitol. The plane crashed and disintegrated on impact It was a windy day, the debris field a mile and a half wide Only 8 percent of remains were recovered The coroner ordered the impact site to be covered over as befitting a grav e Rest in peace flight 93.Lesser known Seven people were working outside on a hilltop when the plane came screaming 400 feet overhead, upside down, and at 563 mph slammed into the field below. When these people close their eyes at night, I pray that they too, rest in peace. A single boulder acts as headstone, marking the point of impact Stark, somber, heartbreaking. 63 Setting the Record Straight on 09 11 14 at 8 35 pm. 140 yesterday Why didn t she become at teacher 81k a year is considered a middle class salary Do you think teachers don t deserve to belong to the middle class The reason ece s get paid so little is because they are only qualified to teach jk sk. Deserve Unions are designed to extract above market wages They are particularly successful when negotiating with governments Even FDR did not believe there should be public sector unions The question is what would teachers salaries be if set by the market. 2 Speak for yourself Mark s comments are among the best on this blog. I am 31 and a millennial. As for some of these other millennials on this blog talking about how successful they are, how much money they make, or how self sustaining they are blah blah You guys know that we on this blog in no way represents our entire generation right. Our generation has got to be the dumbest that has ever lived. It is our sense of entitlement We lack any sense of humility, and we all believe we are some star Sort of like the grandstanding that is evident in your posts. If TSHTF, our entire generation would curl up into a ball in the corner of the room with our thumbs in our mouths Garth is correct. Sir Garth wrote And half over 50 have just a fraction one quarter saved of what they ll need to retire a decade later In other words, they ain t going to make it. When fewer than 50 have saved enough for retirement, all that happens in a democracy is that the majority will take it from the minority That is the w ay this country is run now The fable of the grasshopper and the aunts is becoming the truth Just look at Ontario We have the Greenbelt Act, the Niagara Escarpment Act, the Natural Heritage Initiative, and the Oak Ridges Moraine Act All of these Provincial initiatives, just took from the existing land owners and gave to the public majority Millions of dollars in assets just eviscerated What makes you think that this will not happen with investments What point is there in investing if the majority just takes it away. 66 Granny Annie on 09 11 14 at 8 40 pm. Blog dawgs, I need your help. Where do I get information about the selling price of a property in Brampton if it wasn t listed on MLS and sold privately within the the last two years. This may have been covered previously, but any guidelines will be appreciated. 67 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09 11 14 at 8 42 pm. This chart compares single family home sales totals January through August of recent years to that of 2007, which was, at best, an average year for Greater Victoria.2014 s SFH sales pace is 31 behind 2007 s pace population adjusted. Slow sales always points to a weak, unhealthy housing market Slow sales was a common denominator among all housing markets that underwent major price corrections throughout the US and the rest of the world in recent years The relationship between slow sales and falling prices is well-established Victoria s price decline that began in 2010 will continue. For SFHs, the downward price path has been re-established in Victoria after the usual seasonal price bump In August, the local board s SFH benchmark price was down 1 3 from July. Examples of monthly price declines by area Victoria -1 1 Oak Bay -1 5 Saanich East -1 2 Saanich West -1 8 North Saanich -1 1 Sidney -1 9.Victoria s housing market is in deep trouble House prices in other Canadian cities have increased significantly since 2010 as a result of historically low emergency interest rates That prices have decreased significantly in Victoria since 2010 should be alarming to every Victoria mortgage holder. As of June 2014, house prices in Las Vegas were 42 5 below their 2006 peak level and prices in Phoenix were 35 5 below peak Years after hitting bottom, prices in many American cities are still well below peak levels and prices across the US in general may be starting to move lower again. Housing bubbles always go through major, multi-year price corrections It isn t different in Victoria. Victoria s housing market is extremely overvalued A quick look at house prices in Las Vegas makes this clear min 3 beds, 2 baths, min 1,800 sq ft of primary above ground living space, attached double garage. A similar house in Victoria would cost at least 700 K. Girls and guys, Victoria s housing market is weak and prices have been declining in a well-establ ished downtrend since 2010 It would be a bad idea to buy now when much lower prices are on the way Prices in Victoria will fall much more as house prices across Canada fall Wait for that to happen. Until next time Cheers. Did you know any body on flight 93. 69 Setting the Record Straight on 09 11 14 at 8 43 pm. 152 yesterday PS I m not talking about the value of real work having value as being wrong There is much more to ASOE than real value of work The main problem I have with ASOE, in general, is the fixation on hard currency as being superior than a market-based floating currency How can they profess to be market-fundamentalists but be supportive of an inflexible exchange rates fixed to gold and despises price discovery on exchange rates They can t, it s called cognitive dissonance. Truly a foolish comment. Stop cooking with cheese. 71 souvereigninternational on 09 11 14 at 9 03 pm. I just drove by 6 houses for lease in small dowtown TO neighbourhood Is this a sign of market breaching the top Can t sell for what I want - gonna lease instead and wait. in other news suprisingly despite gold silver metal spot down today, all my junior miners are up 5 on average Is this a sign of a bottom. 72 Ayn Rand Army on 09 11 14 at 9 05 pm. 60 Setting the Record Straight on 09 11 14 at 8 08 pm. Mark, if you do listen to ARAmry, remember that Von Mises work has been criticized by a other ASOE professors, such as F A Hayek, and b Chicago School of Economics professors, such as Milton Friedman, and c pretty much every other notable economist since the 1980s. Links please - There will be no links from Kenchi because it s not true and he s a liar And even if there are any arguments against Mises by modern day opposing Keynesian economist, they can all be easily destroyed if one reads and understand the work and theories layed out in his magnum opus, Human Action. Mises was born in 1881 and died 1973, i typed that wrong yesterday. People like Kenchi often make up slanderous remarks and dismissive unbacked statements about Mises and Ayn Rand because their economic and philosophical arguments can not be beat by arguing against them and hence is why they always attack the person and not their ideas or theories. To say Ayn Rand was an excessive radical against government ust because she ex perience the rise of the red army and communism in Soviet Russia and the destruction and death of her society is a little simplistic dismissal of her vast body of work, and if one reads her work, you ll see that her experience was a large part of the inspiration and driving force that compelled her to greatness. 66 Granny Annie on 09 11 14 at 8 40 pm. Where do I get information about the selling price of a property in Brampton if it wasn t listed on MLS and sold privately within the the last two years A lawyer can access the title records through software most seem to have, or maybe if you visit the land registry office Have been involved in estate property transfers wills and that was the way all the history and information including amount of money involved was available. 49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09 11 14 at 7 51 pmDowntown Van a few weeks back Waitress serving us at a pub starts chatting She s mid 30 s lots of tats on the arms, loves waitressing No plans for the future Lives paycheque to paycheque bummed a smoke off my friend Very skinny, twitchy, looks like the beginning of a crack addict believe me I know crack addicts Anywho, nice girl Last weekend my friend is back drinking at the bar This girl is off shift and is Smoking Man hammered Gooned Her parents are there, its her birthday Her parents confided to my friend that they give her everything Car, free rent condo, pay her bills, etc So whats this girl do with her own money Spends it ALL on drugs Parents Killing her with kindness Tough love needed. I disagree, everyone s different, I know many young out off control young people that snapped out of and went on to run their own huge business. Just because your programming tells you that girl needs help Doesn t mean it s so. Why do I exhibit and enjoy s elf destructive behaviour, taking to myself out loud on many occasions I figured it. I m board of a standard life, success cones easy to me It s not challenging at all Perhaps I want to box myself into a tomb only for the amazing thrill of trying to figuring out how to get out of it. Whether I get out alive or dead is insignificant It s the fun of beating huge odds It s what being alive is all about. It s demented, I know But shit like that makes me happy. SmokingMan sInvestmentAdvice Or, TheProblemWithDoorNumber2 AccordingToAlbert, Robert Johnny. NoteToHommeDuTabagisme Worked for me, though Albeit, I only did it once and I was simply trying to make a point about EideticMemory Of course, in those days they weren t dealin from 8Decks Just between the two of us, when it comes to PartyMode, OldSchoolVegas was like WayMoreFun Just ask Bugsy. If you don t mind kicking out your son or daughter at 18, watch this video Shelley Lubben Ex-Porn Star s testimony The ugly truth behind the porn industry. 25 Londoner on 09 11 14 at 6 29 pm Canada should introduce a program to ease affordability for lower income families like they have here in the UK. It s an interesting proposition, and I don t doubt that some people have used it correctly to their long-term benefit But I don t care for the shared ownership program, from a ideological perspective rather than the practical attributes of it. My issue is that this there are already so many ways in which the gov t encourages homeownership Adding another one that directly uses public funds particularly in a situation of fiscal deficit position at the provincial and federal levels is not exactly responsible use of taxpayers dollars And if too many people apply, then it s the gov t s capital that is directly subsidizing incumbent homeowners, which is a massive problem in Central London. PS In 2012, the UK gov t paid 20bn in housing benefits A quick calculation of privately owned rental units received 70bn in rent That means the gov t paid roughly 28 -29 of all rent Not very well allocation of gov t funds. 78 Ayn Rand Army on 09 11 14 at 9 19 pm. Regarding the kids today and my comment yesterday about the lack of jobs because of a bad economy My point still stands and their coddled upbringings only compounds the problems. But just look at the youth unemployment in Europe over 25 in some countries and when business do have to hire someone, they prefer to hire the older people who are also out of work because they do have better work ethics than the lazy kids. There are lot of good kids out there too, of course, its just that the ratio of useless is rising while the competition for useful has never been more essential for businesses to survive in this looter economy Taxes, inflation, payroll deducts etc. 79 Andrew Woburn on 09 11 14 at 9 22 pm. Some blog dogs would likely contest this statement. We are both by design and by culture inclined to be anything but humble in our approach to investing We usually invest on the basis that we re certain that we ve picked winners, we sell in the certainty that we can re-invest our capital to make more money elsewhere We are usually wrong, often extremely wrong. Vlad, I loved how Alex Jones handled that caller The caller is a prisoner to his own bias The group he was referring to, the majority are frightened little humanoids like everyone else It s the buggers at the top. I refer to my Newvo rich relative She got a taste of power, domination over others as she became wealthy, everyone around her lined up to lick her boots It s an evolution of some kind If fks with your brain. I snapped out if it and took action Not everyone is as smart as me. 66 Granny Annie on 09 11 14 at 8 40 pm. any TREB member has access to the info. Re 37 Blacksheep on 09 11 14 at 7 10 pm. Free ounce of Gold Any takers See post 14. Better yet A Canadian home could be yours for 100, and one persuasive essay For 100 wow and an essay 22 March, 2014 an article by JAMES BRADSHAW AYLMER, ONT The Globe and Mail stated that. Calvin and Diana Brydges own a thrift store on the main drag of Aylmer, Ont population 7,151 They sell vinyl LPs Or, for 100 and a few pages of inspired writing, you can have their house The couple is holding an essay-writing contest, and the prize is their three-bedroom brick home on three quarters of a country acre just east of Aylmer To win it, entrants must explain why the house would benefit them most, and send a 100 entry fee. Really, has it come to this. Quit making them feel guilty living with mom. Rather have them paying mom rent than some house flipper Let house flip pay his own mortgage. 84 Andrew Woburn on 09 11 14 at 9 36 pm. Those twenty-eight pages tell a story that has been completely removed from the 9 11 Report, Lynch maintains Another congressman who has read the document said that the evidence of Saudi government support for the 9 11 hijacking is very disturbing, and that the real question is whether it was sanctioned at the royal-family level or beneath that, and whether these leads were followed through Now, in a rare example of bipartisanship, Jones and Lynch have co-sponsored a resolution requesting that the Obama Administration declassify the pages. 85 Red Deer Rob on 09 11 14 at 9 37 pm. Don t generalize all millenials that way We re not homogeneous. 42 NostyVlad the Snugglebombed on 09 11 14 at 7 33 pm. 147 Kenchie on 09 11 14 at 8 51 am China is a beacon of economic stability in a profligate world. This world is a highly-dysfunctional cornucopia of paradoxes, highs lows, heavens hells etc and it is supposed to be that way For example Freedom Scotland, Catalans, Texas and Alaska. I was being facetious with that statement by the way I agree with your statement that the world is highly-dysfunctional That s just how it is. My point of posting that link was to show people how messed up the Chinese property market is It s arguably way worse trading paper amongst investors at a faster velocity than boom-time America. There are, according to the article, 1,000 online peer-to-peer lending sites engaged in helping small-time investors own a slice of a much more expensive house It makes no mention of the cash flow derived from the investment, so it could easily be empty That s insane. 66 Grannie Annie. Find something called a Roscoe terminal and you can search properties by address, name, parcel number etc The report will show all title transfers, sale prices, liens encumbrances etc. If a staff member is too busy to assist, most of the other patrons are usually quite helpful as they re pros. 30 in my anecdotal experience it particularly seems to be a Vancouver thing, but is found in Montral, Toronto, and even Calgary I grew up in a small town, and my 22-year-old sister is still there she and all her friends rent a few buy their own places For them, living with your parents would be bizarre and socially undesireable. Think about this people, if we re lucky like my dad, 97 years old, a GPS attached to his wrist The bastard can still sprint His mind is gone, off in some weird world. He smiles a lot, but when the words come out, not even an alien that speaks a million languages and a direct connect to the UCC can make out what he says. We got about 100 years if we re un lucky. Why worry, why be afraid Enjoy life to its fullest. Do what you love doing cause one day, you will need reading glasses, then Viagra, then a diaper the a coffin. It s short, make your time sweet, going to Seneca tomorrow, drinks on me. JANET YELLEN the problems with LIBOR have undermined the public s trust in t he financial system corporate debt considered high quality liquid asset while investment grade municipal securities are not. Senator Richard Shelby s Something s wrong with the justice department People shouldn t be able whoever they are, not just financial institutions shouldn t be able to buy their way out for culpability, especially when it s so strong it defies rationality I agree with her Warren on that parallels extend and pretend Japan China. 4 Retired Boomer you got that right. The endgame of kids living together forever with their parents in an incredibly expensive environment can be seen in Japan These people are called parasites, since they feed off their parents forever. Unfortunately, this would never work in the Canadian context, as most parents would be willing to toss the kids out on the street or into the nearest snowbank. The real solution for yesterday s guy is to sell everything, take small loss, and move to Ecuador He could live like a king off the savings pension and even find affordable private nursing for his wife, in addition to housekeeper, gardener etc He could even apply to be an Honorary Consul given his stellar public service starting to sound like the beginning of a John Le Carre novel As for the kid in the basement, Pops could enroll him in Mariachi lessons down there and he could busk his way towards financial independence. home depot automated call-in system known as a Voice Response Unit VRU to chang e PIN fraud fighter at a bank in New England that experienced more than 25,000 in PIN debit fraud at ATMs in Canada The bank employee said thieves were able to change the PINs on the cards using the bank s automated VRU system. Tax evasion sophisticated scam revealed by CBC hidden camera Experts said one plan was virtually untraceable By Timothy Sawa, CBC News Posted Sep 30, 2013 9 35 PM ET Last Updated Oct 01, 2013 9 15 AM ET. Brian De Wit, Cem Can indicted by FBI in 500M offshore tax fraud scheme By Timothy Sawa, CBC News Posted Sep 10, 2014 11 21 AM ET Last Updated Sep 10, 2014 1 32 PM ET. As alleged, the defendants concocted an intricate scheme using sham companies to make money while repeatedly evading and violating U S securities and tax laws The indictment of these defendants should serve as a stern reminder that such greed-based behaviour comes at a cost, the FBI said in a statement. 94 Smoking Man on 09 11 14 at 10 04 pm. OK had a JD or two Feel like writing. You bastards want the Holly Grail of happiness. I m going to tell you write now Print it and put it on your fridge, just like Newvo put my Xmas face book post on hers. Do not be afraid of judgment, let it all hang out Look in the mirror and scream to your reflection, your special your the best Piss off your teachers if they find out. But sky will always be blue, and the sun will always shine. 60 Setting the Record Straight on 09 11 14 at 8 08 pm. Mark, if you do listen to ARAmry, remember that Von Mises work has been criticized by a other ASOE professors, such as F A Hayek, and b Chicago School of Economics professors, such as Milton Friedman, and c pretty much every other notable economist since the 1980s. He had respect for Mises, no doubt, but had differing views on somethings and looked to improve upon his former professor s work Just search for Mises in the search field, it will bring up all the sections Hayek speaks about him Many of the sections show his disagreement criticism. Page 5 of 7, half way down Talks about Rand and Mises It s like Friedman could be talking about ARArmy. 96 DreamingIntechnicolour on 09 11 14 at 10 13 pm. When there is not enough to buy a pizza after you get paid, pay your bills and put some gas in the tank then you know the banks, finance and car companies have you by the short and curlies and who is to blame only a greedy, show-off like yourself If you can t make payments, in time, they will force the sale of your home seize what ever they need from your equity to pay out the mortgage and their court costs, they will re-possess your car truck and they will go after you for credit card debts and who is to blame only a greedy, show-off like yourself. Ok, I have 2 kids in elementary school and the situation in today s post crossed my mind many times What would I do as a parent Here s what I came up with Let s say you think about a rock climber he she will take more risks and explore more opportunities if he she has good security a rope that will save the day if a climbing fiasco occurs I apply the same principle to life I will tell my kids to go explore the world and will be quite pushy about it, but I will let them know that at any time they fail in a new undertaking, there is always a room and a bed for them to fall back on , so to speak As a parent, I do intend to push them to go for new and risky opportunities, I intend to encourage them to be bold and not fear a new journey, but again, I will be the so-called safety net for them, so that they can go the riskier way and benefit more than average from it if successful, or learn from it if not I am an immigrant here in Canada I started from 32k in 2004 and now make over 100k with bonus, which is not that bad As I wrote here before, I am going to get my CFA charter soon and keep advancing in my career The only thing I didn t have is this security net of parents here that would have allowed me to go some riskier ways and maybe earn even more today I had to feed my wife and kids and I had to go the safer way of my career advancement As a parent, I think that my duty is t o raise my kids to be educated, street smart, independent, wise at handling money and, most importantly, is to encourage them to take risks and if they fail to provide them the place to come back, recover, regroup and go back to do big things again Maybe I am wrong But this is the best I think I can do for them Time will tell And certainly, if they are 24 and living in my house, they will have to pay market-level rent, which, when they buy a house semi no condo will be given 100 back to them for the downpayment They must learn the value of money as soon as possible Peace. 98 Retired Boomer - WI on 09 11 14 at 10 16 pm. Back from the Thursday night gambling rendezvous Didn t win, but I had my fair share of Brandy. No, at majority you do NOT owe your kids anything, but if you can afford it, help them with their aspirations assuming you have your future retirement on track. Help with higher education OK IF you CAN afford it Rent to them below market for a time - IF you can afford it. Do NOT let them dwell in your basement until they find themselves that is bullshit. Do NOT help them buy a property, leave them a ton in your will after you croak so they can pay off the shelter they bought, or to buy their first place You re dead, do you give a shit. If you created another human being, be the best parent you can be, but at the age of majority, it is time for them to fly on their own They may well fall and break a wing, or their neck that is called life Most will learn from their errors, and with some pain You can t live their life for them, take care of your own fir st Be sympathetic, but not pathetic. Not every kid is destined to be 1 but if they are productive members of society, a job well done Good job. End of today s RANT. Kids moving out before marriage is just a phenomenon that started back with the Boomer generation. Kids of immigrants never moved out before marriage regardless of ethnicity. First generation Italians, Greeks and Portuguese never moved out until they were hitched and scored their down payment from their wedding collections. Chinese and Indian cultures commonly share 1 house with Parents, kids, daughter-in-laws and grand kids The Dad, Son, Daughter-in-law and other siblings work and bring in the house hold income while the Mother watches the grand kids This is why these million dollar houses with lots of space are constantly being sold and afforded with the multiple family earners. There s a huge economic benefit of multi-generational families living in one house that affords the extra parental supervision, extra savings for food, energy, extra money for education and their kids graduate with no debt, properly raised with strong family values. Family dynamics are changing in Canada and the old white Canadian way of letting your kids run wild, work and figure it out on their own will only get them so far and do not fit in this new economy All too often these kids take the path of least resistance and fall off the economic ladder, just look at the enrollment for the Arts vs Science degrees. 32 Smoking Man on 09 11 14 at 6 52 pm. 27 Steve French on 09 11 14 at 6 30 pmI ve got 40 K sitting on the sidelines What should I do with it. Stay away from Forex Only Alians with Esp can win at that game. I ve done REALLY well over 1-2 years keeping more investments and cash in USD. Are you getting out of USD entirely I m likely doing a bit more conversion back to CAD via norbert s gambit now that CAD is back under 90 cents, but will still have a ton of USD investments. Garth, you sound like you re 90 years old when you rag on 25-year-olds It s not like the Boomer days when you had a fat paycheque, car, kids, and a DB plan by 14 Bald by 20 All on a high school diploma And somehow old geezers still have no cash. I wish I could ve filled up my camaro for 12 cents a litre Instead, I m paying for underfunded pensions. Great post as usual I look forward to the day you shut this blog down because that means the correction is well underway and sanity will return to this country. 69 Setting the Record Straight on 09 11 14 at 8 43 pm. 152 yesterday PS I m not talking about the value of real work having value as being wrong There is much more to ASOE than real value of work The main problem I have with ASOE, in general, is the fixation on hard currency as being superior than a market-based floating currency How can they profess to be market-fundamentalists but be supportive of an inflexible exchange rates fixed to gold and despises price discovery on exchange rates They can t, it s called cognitive dissonance. Truly a foolish comment. Please set the record straight , rather than say foolish comment without any rationale behind it to support your view. So adult children end up like giant eight-year-olds, assuming they have no mobility, freedom or personal responsibility - Garth. Your conclusions are baseless and incorrect on this topic The economy, from high youth unemployment, underemployment, and obscene costs see youth car insurance, education costs, etc has delayed financial independence across the board It s a global issue and not just Canadian, if you put some thought into it instead of turning your nose up, I think you would develop a more realistic view of today s youth. 63 setting the record straight. Deserve Unions are designed to extract above market wages They are particularly successful when negotiating with governments Even FDR did not believe there should be public sector unions The question is what would teachers salaries be if set by the market. Well, the Criminal BC guberment has offered 40 day for children under 12 for daycare daycare, no accountability for teaching 6 year-olds how to read, write sentences, develop socially, artistically physically I had 23 six year-olds x 40 920 day x 22 teaching days per month 20,240 month x 10 months remember, I need my two months off, right Slue 202,400 per annum F ya Free enterprise me the money. 105 ozy - ANSWER THIS on 09 11 14 at 10 39 pm. The TSX gained 27 in the past year and the S P is up 21 , while inflation is 2.so, Garth, solve this mystery. if not many Canadians save in RRSPs, invest in TSFAs we spend it all on kids and RE, etc who is PUMPING IN THE fricking Stock Market. does Canada has treason laws wondering. 72 Ayn Rand Army on 09 11 14 at 9 05 pm 60 Setting the Record Straight on 09 11 14 at 8 08 pm. Links please - There will be no links from Kenchi e because it s not true and he s a liar. Please see my post early with links. People like Kenchi e often make up slanderous remarks and dismissive unbacked statements about Mises and Ayn Rand because their economic and philosophical arguments can not be beat by arguing against them and hence is why they always attack the person and not their ideas or theories. Well, well I actually can back up my point of view with rationale Beat is subjective You re too biased to let go of your beliefs to look at another point of view I only came up with my point of view on ASOE after reading about it and applying other forms of economic theory to it, and integrating real-life situations to it And that s how I came up with the idea that it s just simply outdated economics It doesn t work any more Nor do I believe Keynesianism works much anymore either The variabl es today are very different than they were in the 1930s I m not going to waste my time by listing them here though Learning by doing is the best form, I suggest you do your own research on other economic theories to open up your mind. I suggest you look at what I posted regarding Milton Friedman s opinion on Ayn Rand and Von Mises You re exactly the type of person he is talking about. Also, you re talking about what s called ad-hominem Currently, you re doing it to me with your post. My kid sister is 32, doesn t have a steady job, had a kid and then split with her hubby Now she is an economic basket case almost totally dependent on her helicopter parents But why not She s living much better in my dad s new rental property than she could on her own I m not sure who to blame but the whole thing looks tragic to me. On the one hand I figure if she can get dad to buy her a house, why would she say no So I can see her point of view If they were throwing money at my kids to go to school I d proba bly let them take it too But they don t My kids don t need to go to school. If they were rich, I could understand if they were saying hey, we can t spend all our money so here you go dear children, 100,000 each do what you will or something I d use the money to pay for my kid s education, make life easier for them as students Some rich people do that But instead they are helping one child and probably imperiling their finances to do so. And then they went and bought a new motor home Don t get me wrong, that seems like a normal thing for retired folks to own Why not have our old folks cruising the highways in 10 ton disco wagons with side-outs But they had to finance that too. So now they have a new mortgage on a house they don t collect rent or utilities on, or at least not very much of it, and a financed disco wagon that self levels. Oh and the icing on the cake is they just bought a new car financed as well but it can t be towed behind the RV so they are planning to get something towable Yikes I should just move 3 provinces away as Garth suggests And buy or rent a place that doesn t have RV parking. So Garth, you just can t help people I don t know if they just can t do math in retirement and figure they have all the money in the world I don t think so or they are quite convinced the apocalypse is upon us so it doesn t matter yes, they might, hence my tendency to make jokes in that line but they went from being free of debt on a fixed income to signing loans all over the place still on a fixed income in just a short period of time And no they did not ask for my opinion So no, I am not backstopping it if Jesus doesn t get back in time There will be no reverse helicopter parenting. Did I mention my dad thinks a reverse mortgage will be all he needs if anything goes sideways I don t get it Take a reverse mortgage on his house to make the payments on a house he bought for his daughter Yep I m moving away Don t know where I am going yet but the jobs seem to be in the US for my line of work. This article is about 15 year old kid who is teaching Donbass militia how to fight Ukranian naziez who burnt his home town Kids Canadian you have no chance in this life You just can t compete with kids with REAL life experience And I am not talking about combat, you will run under mom s wing way before it comes to any fight And I am NOT talking about war, any economic hardship and you dead - No iphone I am dead, cant live without it Sure you will never translate it and believe all lies in MSM, good luck. I could not agree more Being financially independent and dare I say well-off is an anomaly in my social circle let alone my generation. Too many people my age are aghast at the reality that following your passion usually doesn t pay the bills Despite subscribing to buzzfeed s 21 Affirmations of a Modern Day Hustler as told in cat gifs natch they wouldn t dare get a second job Instead the solution is more school, financed by mom and dad So off to Northwestern they go becau se a masters in journalism is sure to land them a job writing features for Toronto Life. OK, here s what kills me about this subject These same snivelling, spoiled little princes and princesses are the ones s ing all over the baby boomers for taking everything and leaving nothing for them I m one generation younger than the boomers, but I m sick and tired of hearing this Every boomer I know has spent most of the lives and earnings on ensuring their kids have the best of everything and never wanting for anything Cars, schools, travel, homes, best clothes etc These are the same kids now grown up complaining because they can t maintain the life their parents gave them After all, why should they have to work for anything, they never had to before and they got the best of everything How dare the boomers do this to them lol. Sick and tired of it Get a life and get a job, even if it s low paying That s what the boomers did. I used to go to Seneca semi-regularly with a girlfriend from Hamilton wh ere I used to live and have SPA weekend I live in Ottawa now, and always looked forward to our annual get-together in Niagara. She likes to gamble, and is good at it I would watch We got looks from guys, who I suspect thought we were a couple It was fun Now I cannot go anymore because my Canadian passport shows place of birth, Dallas Texas , and I am not allowed to travel to USA on my Canadian passport USA just raised the price of citizenship renunciation from 450 to 2,350, on top of the existing requirement of 5 years tax compliance thousands of dollars in forms and risk of penalties and an exit tax I left USA with my Canadian parents at age one Sigh SPA days were fun. 112 Ayn Rand Army on 09 11 14 at 11 12 pm. Fritz Machlup was a student of Mises s, one of his most faithful disciples At one of the Mont Pelerin meetings, Fritz gave a talk in which I think he questioned the idea of a gold standard he came out in favor of floating exchange rates Mises was so mad he wouldn t speak to him for three years. This is true Mises was betrayed by his best student who relented on the necessity of the gold standard as is required to force discipline on the supply of money and help ensure market interest rates and so many monetary issues Money, the lifeblood of the economy, to relent on the instance of money being backed by a weight of a commodity is absolutely fundamental for money s function as a unit of measure and account. On this issue, Mises was right and i believe he never forgave him or bothered with him again. The creators of the US constitution also knew this and under the section for weights and measured mention only gold and silver could be coined by gov a s money. All our problems today stem from the break of the gold standard. See, kenchi, you got nothing. No major currency will ever again be commodity-backed Thankfully Garth. the certainty of rate increases next year. Not too likely The last the absolute LAST thing governments want is higher interest rates That s why their central banks regard interest rate manipulation as Job 1.You think they ll willingly deep-six their highly-leveraged friends and clients What would higher rates do to homeowners To the real estate and housebuilding industry To leveraged 40-to-1 hedge funds, barely eking out any yield at all even with today s massive government supports. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. not until the efficacy of the central bank put itself is questioned. Of course it will end badly Meanwhile misguided parents churn out Millennials who feel entitled to leap from their childhood homes into granite-laden, debt-drenched digs, thinking this is what adults do. Exactly, Garth Which is the point of my comment fr om the post yesterday which got a couple of thumbs down This sense of entitlement is the killer, aided by parents suffering from guilt and a looking like a good and responsible parent in the eyes of their family and peers complex Tell me what life lessons are being taught if all young people are given are material benefits, i e cash, stay under thieir parents roof with no plan to evolve or become independent Experience no financial lessons because all is taken care of for you, etc etc The best and brightest young people I encounter these days are the ones that show initiative, independence, have a desire to think and plan ahead, and want to do it with as little assistance as possible The actively look for opportunites When I meet young people with these attributes today they really stand out They really set themselves apart from the majority We can all use a hand up at some point in our lives, but parents who try to justify enabling their basement dwelling children by blaming the econo my or different times don t want to face reality Press articles about car manufacturers concerns regarding young peoples disinterest in buying or owning vehicles is traced to their parents habit of driving them wherever they want to go Imagine Why would little Johnny get a driver s license when mommie will drive him 8 blocks to his friends house Guess why he also won t be receptive to moving out of his parents home with the sub zero fridge, home theatre, and permissive parents that let the girlfriend sleep over every night Be annoyed, but recognize yourself when you read this. 97 Gladiator has it right. 116 Saskatchewan Skeptic on 09 11 14 at 11 28 pm. I apologize for this rant in advance, I m just in a bad mood tonight. It is definitely a misguided party here in Canada In Regina New homes along with homes from the 1980-90s larger bungalows are, in many cases over 400 grand and becoming comparable to parts of illustrious Alberta surprise It s unreal So what happens to those of us 30ish millennials who weren t afforded the luxuries of our parent s basement, free tuition from them and all the free food you could dream of Well, I came out of university with a degree, good job and a decent pension plan Unfortunately, I don t have the cash saved for a down payment and thus, live in a slanty, century old 1bd for 800 a month That s cheap in the YQR I also had to attain that degree on my own dime and thus, life has granted me a sizable student debt and a small car payment I do however have a brain and see through this garbage market towards whats really coming. That said, I can t believe the amo unt of fake, entitled people who scoff at renters I talk to friends who own parents paid their down payment of course who wonder why I don t jump balls in and break my mortgage-ginity I mean why not I have a career now and some of my friends make half what I do None of these friends are willing to admit that if they tried to sell their 1bd South Regina condo they bought for 190 8 months ago, it would go for 160 tops today Scary My one friend even shacked up with a girl, begging her to move in with him because after all bills were paid, he was only left with 47 for food, drinking and smoking He STILL bugs me about owning like he does It s so infuriating because I ve worked so hard for everything and all that most kids do these days is snap their fingers or cry to make mommy and daddy shell out their fictional savings for a down payment There are 20-30 somethings that actually treat a renter like dirt because they didn t jump into this party It makes me sick sometimes and I can t wait fo r the day that all my debt is paid off and I pick off a foreclosure from some stuck up hipsters who got divorced when hubby s construction job went through some tough layoffs Oh, and that home will most certainly be worth 25-30 less, wiping out whatever plans they had to split their nest egg They deserve to eat some dirt for assuming the renters live in that dirt today Go Riders. At 11 he left the house to study in one school where you have to stay for 15 days, living, studying, sleeping and working on it, after that a weekend at home visited from Friday to Sunday night, at 8pm Sunday you better be in your bedroom back on the school.11 class sessions per day, 7 50am you already cleaned your student neigborhood, took your breakfast, had the first general meeting. at 8am in the freaking classroom on the first session. obligatory study from 8pm to 10pm, from monday to friday, teacher check you by your number, yes, it s faster to ask for a number instead of your name. at 17 he took a ship to a nother country to start the university, 10000 miles from the parents, he just arrived and found a job in a laundry facility where half drunk strong old russian guys pushed him to work harder and faster to getter a better pay and drink heavier at night, 12 hours of work, 30 minutes to eat and not more pauses during the day, drink water was not a pause. Is this a good standard to compare the new kids and their education in Canada, Garth. I wonder if the minister of education of Canada reads this blogs. He in the history me. I hear that in South Korea is more strict in their program than in this history, in some cases they stop the traffic around the school to allow the kids to concentrate in the exams. If it was the case I d love to be born there. 118 High Plains Drifter on 09 11 14 at 11 29 pm. The letters column reads like from the 1800 s This world is different and does call for different strategies I suggest that this does look like a dead end world for the many Juggling equity and debt is the modern tightwalk that allows luxury before turning into a curmudgeon Somebody please write a letter trying to talk my wife out of her winter cruise to exotica. No major currency will ever again be commodity-backed Thankfully Garth Agreed Why would a sovereign, tie their hands and relinquishing control of the printing press Sure as hell know I wouldn t. 120 straight six on 09 11 14 at 11 44 pm. I was a prefect at age 14 and had hitchhiked the western states by age 17.I say, bring back the whip and the running shoe The snot nosed little bastards Violence solves most everything History says so. 121 Ayn Rand Army on 09 11 14 at 11 45 pm. No major currency will ever again be commodity-backed Thankfully Garth. Well if ever again depends on the results of the vote in November, ever again, is not as long as one might think. First country to back their currency will be the first out of the gate at improving their economy while the west follows Zimbabwean, Argentina, Japan, and USA into oblivion. Garth, your whole blog only exists today because we are not on the gold standard All the money driving up prices would not be possible if tied to finite commodity backing. This bubble is a credit and debt bubble by mortgages created out of thin air back by small reserves Canada s banking system has no limit on leverage or reserve requirements All very Bad. Greetings from Leduc walked the Frt Mac oil show, and called on customers in Edm who were constantly short of workers Boss wants me to move to Edm because he thinks the oil patch is on fire and would increase business looked at 3 bdrm townhouse s that are being bidded on around 10 below asking, and lots of product to choose from Watching the telly in the hotel room and the kick is the CBC doczone program is on condos good show I bet they read your blog to research it ha ha I have been there done that in condos it s the CBC right hey I live in Vcr Your comments on the show if you caught it would be welcomed 911 was an inside job. 112 Ayn Rand Army on 09 11 14 at 11 12 pm. Mises was betrayed by his best student who relented on the necessity of the gold standard as is required to force discipline on the supply of money and help ensure market interest rates and so many monetary issues. On this issue, Mises was right and i believe he never forgave him or bothered with him again It s just your OPINION that Mises was right Clearly, this betrayal shows the world that his best student didn t agree with him on the gold standard and preferred floating exchange rates And, quelle surprise, I touched cognitive dissonance exhibited by LVM on inflexible exchange and price discovery of exchange rates i e floating is superior and more in line with market economy fundamentals P. You think forcing discipline on supply of money and help ensure market interest rates actually works Newsflash It doesn t Inflation happens regardless of sound money Have you ever seen the chart of inflation and deflation in the US over the course of the 19 th century It s not pretty Try making capital investment decisions when the economic cycle is like this. Despite your OPINION, no monetary policy Sound or not can stop human beings from irrationally bidding up the price of, say, tulips, or shares in the Mississppi Company , or freakin NORTEL Networks stock 398bn market cap at its peak. So in reality, the legitimate discussion isn t about Sound Money , but about availability of Liquidity when it s needed most And under a hard currency system, backed by Gold, Silver, Seashells, or Beaver Pelts, liquidity can t be brought forward quickly enough to stop the complete crash and, potentially, depressions. Like I said, take the lessons from LVM and apply them to real life, and you ll quickly understand that it s just theory and has been obsolete for about 70 years at least. You should start by watching all of the Free to Choose Part 1. 202,400 per annum F ya Keep dreaming. Those s are destined to buy off the parents, so the gov can let the daycare works starve on the picket line. With an over supply of teachers in BC, the value for your ilk s services is dropping by the day If I was a teacher ya, right , I d be getting my ass back to work, while I still had a job. if not many Canadians save in RRSPs, invest in TSFAs we spend it all on kids and RE, etc who is PUMPING IN THE fricking Stock Market. The Canadian stock market hasn t really gone up in over 7 years And there has been significant buyback activity Additionally, TSX60-index-constituent firms have retained and re-invested 2 3rds of their earnings So naturally such firms, with additional retained earnings, become more valuable. At some point, the stock market will come back into favour, but until then, it will remain exceptionally inexpensive cheap and ripe for great returns going forward This years performance of 17 YTD is just a small taste of what we could look forward to for many years to come. 126 TakingResponsibility on 09 12 14 at 1 58 am. What s actually wrong with inter-generational living I think it sad that birth, child-rearing, education, old-age, and even death have become Outsourced institutionalized Actually, most of us spend our working years in some institution or another We are all institutionalized debt slaves. Hard to moralize other than simplistic moral opinions from within our institutionalized and marketized minds. Does the Market inform us and determine our morals and the ways in which we live Or, do our morals inform the Markets. This intergenerational moralizing doh which is most definitely not moral theory nor ethical can get out of hand young people might even turn the tables and begin moralizing and, yikes, legislating about how those old folk are not productive and decide that anyone over a certain age should be euthanized 68 Or 70.Tear down listed for 17 9 million in Vancouver. Damn low interest rates. Wait, payments would be 90,000 month. My parents encou raged me to leave home at 16 and fend for myself especially if i wanted to go to college They saw it as a way to make us more grown up My brothers had the same treatment. Of course, if anything serious happened i could always return home still could if i wanted , but ego and determination to be an adult stopped me. Im now approaching 40 and am glad I did, i became less dependent, more self sufficient, and more GROWN UP because of it. These kids staying at home until their 30 s, doesnt just strike me as sad how the hell do they get laid But also, I wonder what it s doing to this new generation of mommies boys girls who never really learned to grow up. How will these people ever proceed in life They re obviously never going to become the new bosses etc Because they just have never learned to properly fend for themselves expecting everything on a plate. Its quite depressing. Not to impersonate Devil s Advocate I must be one The specter of adult offspring living in the same home as parents, mold y basement stereotype aside, is not such a nightmare when everyone gets along well, and handles their portion of community responsibility. My folks lived with my family when my son was very young, and both my husband and I feel we benefitted as did our son It s a spiritual or emotional benefit, and not necessarily a financial one But a house filled with love can weather many problems. Note the key phrase As long as everyone including beloved offspring take on their share of community responsibility. Ottawa moved to cut employment insurance premiums for small businesses Thursday, touting it as an effort that will save employers more than 550 million over the next two years and help stimulate hiring. Encouraging the hiring of workers, hopefully Canadian workers and not TFW s is a good thing but it is truly sad that the Minister and his cohorts in the Conservative government would not try a really effective tool And that is to simply stop the massive immigration that goes on decade after deca de at a rate that cannot be sustained by job creation Statistics Canada and non-government agencies have already outlined the impossibility of providing sufficient jobs in the economy under dicey world economic conditions If you have any doubt about the fragility of the economy just try to explain why interest rates have remained near rock bottom for many years Yet this country is hell-bent on hundreds of thousands of new immigrants seeking work, added to hundreds of thousands of previous years immigrants who are still seeking work Add to those hundreds of thousands of foreign students who are eligible to work and are seeking employment Then try to find room for the hundreds of thousands of real Canadian unemployed who are seeking work We have a government bent on a policy of Multiculturalism in a rush, and more interested in developing that boondoggle then giving serious consideration to what is happening to the Canadian workplace and the downward push on wages and full-time employmen t. Annual immigration us 0 7 of the population, without which we would have decline Garth. Annual immigration us 0 7 of the population, without which we would have decline Garth. This country is getting pretty brown pretty fast Normally I delete comments like this However, because this is your last, it will remain as your marker Garth. 46 George on 09 11 14 at 7 49 pm You know Garth that you and Bank of Canada are part of the filthy greedy system and this illusionary system will. And your dumb, childish blog will disappear. Let me guess 24 Live at home Mom does your shorts MA in Egyptology Garth. Boy that was funny Garth Egyptology LOL. May I add, how many young girls do we need enrolled in the teachers program at York University looking to major in Languages Italian and French in that order to teach Italian or French and graduate from their MISS to MRS on the side LMAO. A gaggle of uselessness. 125 Mark on 09 12 14 at 12 33 am if not many Canadians save in RRSPs, invest in TSFAs we spend it all on kids and RE, etc who is PUMPING IN THE fricking Stock Market. The Canadian stock market hasn t really gone up in over 7 years And there has been significant buyback activity Additionally, TSX60-index-constituent firms have retained and re-invested 2 3rds of their earnings So naturally such firms, with additional retained earnings, become more valuable. At some point, the stock market will come back into favour, but until then, it will remain exceptionally inexpensive cheap and ripe for great returns going forward This years performance of 17 YTD is just a small taste of what we could look forward to for many years to come. Mark I have come to enjoy most of your posts and agree with your assessment of the TSX and relative value it represents. I would add that the overwhelming distrust of the stock market and the repetitive refrain I hear from the average shmuck out there for instance, th e market is going to take a bath was yesterday evenings from a local genius s comment. S P at new highs, TSX flirting with all time highs and people still horny for bricks. Stock market is likely to get very volatile next week with the fed meeting, plus oil fell 15 in 3 months This means, get your stock shopping list ready. With some luck, in 2015, only REITs and condo prices will go down while banks, insurers, and energy will keep going up. Ah what am I saying rates won t even move by a percent by the end of 2016 Please the masses. I would not take a bet on that if I were you Garth. 124 With an over supply of teachers in BC, the value for your ilk s services is dropping by the day If I was a teacher ya, right , I d be getting my ass back to work, while I still had a job. Is there not also an oversupply of ready to start work police, fire, etc It doesn t seem to stop those groups from demanding even more than any classroom teacher could ever hope to make. Police and firefighters are essentially only required to be high school graduates and enter their jobs with no post secondary education or the student loans that go with four years of university. Police and fire services are where the money is at and as essential services you will never lose a dime sitting on a strike line Thirty years and out with gold plated benefits sure beats a teacher s 35 years and out with no benefits. Unfunded pension liabilities are words that no T O candidate for Mayor or Councillor would ever utter It is easier to just buy civic workers, police and fire services off with taxpayer money to k eep them happy and you elected. Hamilton, soon to be 1B in debt Not even on the radar for the up coming civic election. At some point, the stock market will come back into favour, but until then, it will remain exceptionally inexpensive cheap and ripe for great returns going forward This years performance of 17 YTD is just a small taste of what we could look forward to for many years to come. I tend to agree, short term fluctuations aside this market has legs, despite recent gains stock ownership remains at historic lows and bonds are historically expensive These are sure signs that risk aversion is still very very high The fact that stocks have done well in that environment is amazing Some people are making a lot of money, but the herd, or to be polite the middle class is not When risk aversion recedes and it eventually will there will be some sparks. To me the main caveat here is the Canadian economy which could be severely impacted by a real estate correction, this would further sink th e CAD, hurt Canadians companies and likely the local stock market To me the US market is by far a safer investment. 138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09 12 14 at 8 49 am. 101 long dong I wish I could ve filled up my camaro for 12 cents a litre Instead, I m paying for underfunded pensions. Well s always Viagra and the movie industry to supplement your income. 139 rosie moving forward in the knowledge that, this won t end well on 09 12 14 at 9 07 am. This baby adult thing is just a fad Like granite and stainless Boomers trying to out do each other They can be so darn cute though. 140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09 12 14 at 9 09 am. Good old Ayn Rand A sci-fi hack that couldnt even spell her first name right or is that write Smoking Man, help me here But even Elron Hubbard another sci-fi hack was smart enough to turn his novels into a religion. Both authors used their self importance and the stupidity of the masses to create movements that sheeple to this day still spew as gospel. Kenchie, feel sorry for the delusional, for they know not what they speak. Back to you Ann gold is my God Randy. 141 Hot Albertan Money on 09 12 14 at 9 11 am. It s hard to know now when adulthood starts. That s why these geniuses invented a new term for 20 something basement trolls Kidults. 142 Inglorious Investor on 09 12 14 at 9 13 am. Recently, a number of readers of this blog have been debating the compensation of public sector workers. There is no doubt that public sector workers offer some valuable services People can argue over whether some of those services would better be delivered by the private sector, but that is not the point of my comment. The main point that I d like to make is this In my opinion, it is immoral for public sector workers to be receiving increases in wages salaries pensions benefits during a time that the private sector is experiencing high unemployment, stagnant or declining wages, meager or no pensions, and meager or no benefits. Why do I say it s immoral I say so because public sector compensation is paid for with taxes In fact, all wealth is generated by the private sector, either directly or indirectly Even when the government builds valuable infrastructure such as roads and bridges, no matter who does the actual work public or private worke rs the necessary funds come from taxes Even if the initial funding comes from the issuance of bonds, ultimately the debt is serviced with taxes. Without the private sector, there would be no public sector. Every time a private sector worker s taxes increase in order to fund an increase in public sector pensions, every dollar taken is a dollar that the private sector worker is denied for his her own pension Every dollar taken to fund a pubic sector pay increase is a dollar denied to pay for the private sector worker s own needs and the needs of his her family If the increases are initially funded with debt, then the burden is compounded with interest charges. Some might argue that public sector workers also pay taxes like everybody else This is true However, public sector workers are, by definition, net tax beneficiaries When taxes rise to fund increases in public sector compensation, the public sector workers gain more than what it costs them in additional taxes It s like paying yourself ten additional dollars and getting twenty additional dollars in actual extra pay However, for the private sector worker the loss is compounded due to interest charges and because of the lost returns he she could have realized by investing that money. In my opinion, public sector workers should only get increases when the private sector is also getting increases in aggregate of course Again, all the money earned by the public sector comes from taxes When private sector wealth is stagnant or declining, the public sector should not be getting increases This approach only further weakens the private sector, causes economic imbalances, and social tensions Taking more from those who have less is simply wrong. On a related issue In Ontario, the Teachers union has coerced the government into handing over the bulk of increases to education funding for many, many years This has come at the expense of the quality of education our children are receiving in grade school and high school If one examine s the tactics used today, it is painfully obvious that all manner of concessions and strategic alternations are being made to maintain teacher headcount This comes at the expense of the tax payer, and more importantly at the expense of the children the system is supposed to serve This is why I believe public sector unions should be illegal they can become, and have become, far too politically powerful. 143 always priceless on 09 12 14 at 9 14 am. Let me guess 24 Live at home Mom does your shorts MA in Egyptology Garth. WOW Waugh Out Woud lol in the voice of Elmer Fudd Thanks Garth. Another HAM story with quotes from realtors but, this one is from Reuters vs the Vancouver Sun or other local papers who rely on realtor ads , so it is a bit more credible. Is there any reason why governments wouldn t put a foreign buyer s tax on RE purchases. Seems like the Cities Provinces Feds are providing all of the services to these properties, but in many cases no income tax flows through to help pay for it. You know people, even if it takes 5 years to get to interest rates 2 higher than today s, people will still have tons of debt that needs to be paid at that higher rate People are not paying off 500k, 600k or more loans in 5 years In fact due to the wonders of amortization, they ve barely made a dent. Personally, once I went to university I never really came home, and though my parents paid for first ye ar of undergrad, after that we split 50 50 It s important to have some skin in the game, so to speak I can t imagine living my 20s under my parents roof. 146 Joe Average, Vancouver on 09 12 14 at 9 59 am. Molson Canada a US company in Mississauga just laid off 80 people, all quality job They have plans to close Molson in Vancouver that sits in one of the most expensive hoods in Canada Kitsilano Most production moving to US wages, real estate and so on The trend is clear for US companies in Canada the jobs back to US of A. 147 Steve French on 09 12 14 at 10 14 am. Dis one s for da Weekend Single Malt Drinking Filosofers Mr Smokign Man Sir Garths-a-Lot. I have realised that the past and future are real illusions, that they exist in the present which is what there is and all there is. Alan Wilson Watts. Read it weep, bitchez. 148 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09 12 14 at 10 29 am. 131 Porsche on 09 12 14 at 6 22 am Annual immigration us 0 7 of the population, without which we would have decline Garth This country is getting pretty brown pretty fast. Normally I delete comments like this However, because this is your last, it will remain as your marker Garth. Agree 100 White, black, brown, yellow, hell I don t care if your green or purple Immigration is what built this country, however multiculturalism is NONE of the Governments Freeking business and should never have mandated any inclusions regarding it All it does is divide us up into segments by pushing your heritage forward first before your citizenship as a CANADIAN first, always Hell my wife is Irish and has a Spanish heritage I come from Scottish and English heritage, I don t go out and force everyone to listen to the garble that goes on from where our ancestry is from That s for us to keep behind closed doors We can embrace it and talk about it but I m sure my relatives came here 150 years ago to start fres h and embrace a new life MULITICULTURIZEM SUCKS. 149 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09 12 14 at 10 33 am. Wow I just did a Smoking Man on my last post. Spelled it wrong and hit enter too fast Should have said Multiculturalism sucks when forced down our throats by the government. Getting angry and old. 150 All markets are now risky on 09 12 14 at 10 41 am. Re If you start looking at your house as an investment class, as something else you should be investing in rather than the stock market, you run into the danger of being exposed to some of the excesses going on in the system. Unfortunately, as a result of easy money policies worldwide, those same excesses exist in the stock market too There s a bubble in the real estate market, the stock market, and the bond market In the face of financial repression, and the desperate search by investors for yield, people have taken on ever greater amounts of risk in almost all investment classes None of these inflated markets will end well. The S P 500 is at 16 7 times earnings slightly above the historic average A correction of 12-15 seems likely if the PE ratio were to restore Hardly the same overvaluation as real estate, it would seem Garth. 151 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09 12 14 at 10 46 am. Those who want twentysomethings treated as dependent children invariably have economic reasons No jobs, they say The kid ll be homeless So adult children end up like giant eight-year-olds, assuming they have no mobility, freedom or personal responsibility Hard to see how helicopter parenting does much for experience, which is the foundation of maturity Seen it all, my neigbours kept their two boys in the basement for ten years after school Firstly they did not progress any further with their education, so high school only for one and other never did graduate That limited their options right away Then they paid for their cars, insurance, food and free rent All they did was to float from mediocre job to mediocre job on and off for years I suggested once to my neighbour that the one son appears to have a talent for landscaping and he should start a small business Hell I even offered to give him his first contract and my company s l ocation Nope his father said hes not going to do that manual labor OK that was my Que to shut up The son did eventually get into that business with someone else and is now considering starting his own company once he saves enough cash I quietly told him to let me know and I will give him his first contract The other son still on and off unemployment The parents still supply room and board plus a freaking Lexus for him to drive Enabling to the max will kill their kids Holy hit don t they get it. Ingloriously Flawed Logic. From Inglorious at 142.public sector compensation is paid for with taxes In fact, all wealth is generated by the private sector, either directly or indirectly Even when the government builds valuable infrastructure such as roads and bridges, no matter who does the actual work public or private workers the necessary funds come from taxes Even if the initial funding comes from the issuance of bonds, ultimately the debt is serviced with taxes. Does a carpenter employed by th e private sector create wealth while a carpenter employed by government never creates wealth What if the pay and benefits and productivity were the same. 153 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 09 12 14 at 11 08 am. I enjoyed this interview from 2008 with John Bogle Mr Vanguard. 23 crossbordershopper My father says the same thing came to this country with a few dollars and couldn t speak English only difference now decades later he can speak English. The S P 500 is at 16 7 times earnings slightly above the historic average A correction of 12-15 seems likely if the PE ratio were to restore Hardly the same overvaluation as real estate, it would seem Garth. Aren t you calling for about the same 15 correction in RE. As a prelude to a years-long decline Equities will likely correct and recover within a few months More importantly, financial assets are 100 liquid Real estate turns illiquid in a downturn Consequently, elevated risk Garth. NEWARK, N J A New Jersey man pleaded guilty today to orchestrating an eight-year scheme to falsify employment certifications to facilitate the illegal entry of Indian immigrants into the United States and to filing a false tax return. U S Attorney Paul J Fishman of the District of New Jersey, Assistant Attorney General Leslie R Caldwell of the Justice Department s Criminal Division, Chief Richard Weber of Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation IRS-CI and Director Bill A Miller of the State Department s Diplomatic Security Service DSS made the announcement. Sandipkumar Patel, 41, of Edison, New Jersey, pleaded guilty before U S District Judge William H Walls in Newark federal court to conspiring to defraud the United States and to filing a false federal income tax return Sentencing is scheduled for Jan 6, 2015.According to court documents filed with the plea agreement, from 2001 until 2009, Patel sponsored the visa applications of Indian nationals by falsely claiming to provide employment for them in the United States Patel falsely certified on the visa applications that he would employ the immigrants in various technical fields at several New Jersey companies, thereby facilitating their illegal entry into the United States Over the course of the scheme, immigrants paid Patel thousands of dollars for the false certifications to fraudulently secure the visas To disguise the scheme, Patel issued payroll checks and other payroll forms Patel required the immigrants to return the money from the checks and also to reimburse him for his payroll tax expenses Patel used the fraudulent pay stubs and payroll checks to support false applications to extend the visas, and Patel charged the immigrants fees for the visa extensions. As a result of falsely carrying the immigrant employees on his payrolls, Patel overstated his payroll expenses on his federal income tax returns by more than 1 4 million over four years, under-reporting his tax obligation by over 400,000 for those years. This case was investigated by IRS-CI and DSS. to recruit individuals who would be willing to purchase condominium units These individuals were promised a buyers incentive. Developer Sentenced for Orchestrating Massive Mortgage Fraud Scheme On December 19, 2013, in Boston, Mass Sirewl R Cox was sentenced to 150 months in prison and three years of supervised release On November 15, 2013, Cox was convicted of wire fraud, bank fraud and conducting an unlawful monetary transaction According to court documents, in 2006 and 2007, Cox identified multiple-family buildings for sale and recruited straw buyers to purchase the buildings Cox and others then recruited straw buyers to purchase individual units in buildings that Cox controlled The straw buyers financing for the purchases was obtained by submitting mortgage loan applications and other documents that falsely represented key information Deals were closed with HUD-1 settlement statements that falsely represented that straw buyers had made down payments and paid other funds in connection with the property transactions, and falsely represented how the proceeds of the mortgage loans were disbursed. Porsche This country is getting pretty brown pretty fast. Normally I delete comments like this However, because this is your last, it will remain as your marker Garth. you know in a social environment this comment would be in-appropriate People would feel uncomfortable even if nothing pejorative were meant. I m sure Porsche meant to say there have been vast changes in the Canadian demographic A total of 19 of the population is visible minority which means 81 isn t Deal with it Garth. 158 Inglorious Investor on 09 12 14 at 11 41 am. 152 Shawn on 09 12 14 at 10 50 am. Does a carpenter employed by the private sector create wealth while a carpenter employed by government never creates wealth What if the pay and benefits and productivity were the same. Without private sector wealth funding public sector costs the public sector could produce NOTHING Therefore, as I said, all wealth is generated by the private sector, either directly or INDIRECTLY. Learn to read It might help. Inglorious suggests that I Learn to read It might help. Inglorious, learn not to be ignorant in both senses of the word. Boomers take the jobs Consume massive amounts of health care Inflate house prices. And then blame the kids. Garth, I thought you were better than this. You have no idea what the job market is like for the young My brother graduated with a degree in aerospace engineering Then went on to do a Master s in Biomechanical engineering Took him over a year to find work in Toronto in 2009 Lived at home and worked as a fedex driver to pay the bills He really would have been homeless if my parents had insisted he support himself after school. You want to see how really screwed over the job market is for the young Look at the market for teachers Boomers just won t leave And there are teachers in their 30s living at home, trying to survive with whatever work they can, taking all kinds of part time jobs I saw it first hand Ex-gf was 34 years old and living at home after 5 years teaching And she worked well over 40 hours a week across severa l jobs including teaching But could not make any sort of actual living wage It was heartbreaking to watch her go for interview after interview and constantly struggle to find other contract work just to get by. My fiancee is also a teacher Left the profession after struggling to get a proper career going Only year long contracts at private schools No real job at a school board Went back to school for HR Now job hunting Lives on her own 31 Still supported by her parents a fair bit. I won t even get into the new trend of unpaid internships This is the reality of Gen Y today They work hard, far harder than their parents Don t get paid for it Heck, I doubt most Boomers could cut it at the internships that these kids do. Across any actual profession, from lawyers to accountants to zoo keepers, the Boomers have taken all the choice jobs and refuse to retire Then boomers like you have the gall to insist that they get thrown out on their bums You sould like an Old Economy Steve meme. The Boomers h ave royally screwed over Gen Y The very least they could do is give them couch space while they hunt for work. ps To all those who give the standard line about moving to Alberta Engineers are not somehow totally interchangeable You can t use an aerospace engineer in the oil patch that easily. I had no idea FedEx drivers were homeless Garth. 161 NEVER GIVE UP on 09 12 14 at 12 07 pm. 111 WhiteKat on 09 11 14 at 11 08 pm. I am curious as to why you cannot travel to the US on your Canadian Passport What about all the dual Citizens in Canada Why is it they are able to go to the USA. AfterTheHouseSold We visited the National Memorial Site of Flight 93 in Pennsylvania. thanks for that. Victoria Real Estate Update your charts suck they just do but I really appreciate your posts, they sum up a lot of observations and I do like your comparisons to US real estate They coincide with what I ve seen in the US Your narrative is easily understood although wordy. Andrew Woburn Those twenty-eight pages tell a story that has been completely removed from the 9 11 Report. The Reel Me Find something called a Roscoe terminal and you can search properties by address, name, parcel number etc. nonplused So now they have a new mortgage on a house they don t collect rent or utilities on, or at least not very much of it, and a financed disco wagon that self levels. WhiteKat She likes to gamble, and is good at it I would watch. Saskatchewan Skeptic I can t believe the amount of fake, entitled people who scoff at renters. don t let the bastards get you down One day you ll wake up, people will respect you in a new way and you ll say I don t think I want to buy after all. surpised At 11 he left the house to study in one school. Don Derc 911 was an inside job. funny what you can learn watching telly in an hotel room. I had no idea FedEx drivers were homeless Garth. Fedex drivers with tens of thousands in student debts to pay back might be. Try not to hyperbole Just sayin Garth. 164 Setting the Record Straight on 09 12 14 at 12 20 pm. I owe you three responses The last two will come tomorrow. But prior to the issue, I thank you for the links They are very interesting. On Friedman criticizing Mises, in the Reason article, I could only find personal criticisms of Mises intolerance. Even if there are substantive criticisms of Mises by Friedman, I point out the following. Friedman identifies himself as a liberal we would say classic liberal His self identification does wander however because later he seems himself as a libertarian. He said he believes the Federal Reserve should be abolished, that income tax withholding should be abolished in peacetime, and that he does not favor compulsory education If a person here suggested the same, it would generate accusationsfrom our host and others that we were wearing tin foil hats. I ignore the dissonance between these ideas and his work on education vouchers, withholding taxes, and rules to run the Fed by. Friedman also noted th at Hayek self identified as an Old Whig not a libertarian This should be kept in mind when we discuss Hayek and Mises. 165 Longshorebore on 09 12 14 at 12 24 pm. To many kids with humanities and arts degrees, There is real work to be done out here in BC if your willing to work there is a job for you don t need to hear anymore whiners with fluff degrees bitching they can t get a job as a high school teacher Strive a lil higher in uni go for engineering and sciences or pick up a hammer Bunch of wusses. 166 Rational Optimist on 09 12 14 at 12 38 pm.136 Ret on 09 12 14 at 8 11 am. Ret, I am pretty sure I am in your ward in Hamilton If you can register you ve got a couple hours yet , you ll have my vote. 167 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09 12 14 at 12 43 pm. 140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09 12 14 at 9 09 am Good old Ayn Rand A sci-fi hack that couldnt even spell her first name right or is that write Smoking Man, help me here But even Elron Hubbard another sci-fi hack was smart enough to turn his novels into a religion Both authors used their self importance and the stupidity of the masses to create movements that sheeple to this day still spew as gospel Kenchie, feel sorry for the delusional, for they know not what they speak Back to you Ann gold is my God Randy. Smoking Man is at the Casino in Niagara Falls already probably writing his book as we speak I m actually looking for ward to seeing it on the shelf one day Holy hit its got to be chalk full of stuff we never even could conceive This seams appropriate for the huddled masses who follow a religious cult leader blindly. 168 Sheane Wallace on 09 12 14 at 12 46 pm. How is 1 75 trillion in mortgage and personal debt plus maybe 1 trillion in corporate debt possible when all deposits are 1 2 trillion Just asking Where is the other 1 5 trillion coming from Just as a bad cold leads to pneumonia, so over-indebtedness leads to deflation, wrote the US economist Irving Fisher in 1933 But when the debt was piling on there was inflation, correct Why not deflation to offset the inflation Trying to present inflation as reason and necessity for growth is pathetic. Was recently at a dinner party with my wife and her co-workers along with their spouses A mix of ages As we were sitting at the dinner table after consuming a wonderfully prepared dinner I looked around Everyone that was 50 or up was engaged in conversation The younger ones were all texting At the table Couldn t believe it so brought it up in the conversation They all thought it was just normal I thought it was rude Must be getting old I guess. 170 Sheane Wallace on 09 12 14 at 12 55 pm. You have seen nothing yet Kids out of top universities 10 years from now might have 20 80 chance of prosperous career at Starbucks or Wallmart if they get lucky and that old timer barista or greeter dies Cancer rates are up so there is hope Finding a job would be equivalent to winning from the lottery Mortgage debt, education debt, car loans debt, you name it there is debt everywhere and we can not afford to shrink it as it will reduce growth Debt as driver of growth instead of investment and productivity Wow It looks like terminal cancer in its last stages. 171 All markets are now risky on 09 12 14 at 12 57 pm. The S P 500 is at 16 7 times earnings slightly above the historic average A correction of 12-15 seems likely if the PE ratio were to restore Hardly the same overvaluation as real estate, it would seem Garth. Fueled by years of QE, the lowest interest rates in history emergency interest rate conditions, severely negative real rates , nosebleed levels of margin debt, an extremely optimistic bull-to-bear ratio I could go on Nevertheless, this is a setup for more than a simple correction, a perfect recipe for a cascade much lower Bottom line current scenario is high risk, low reward. Quote OTheDay HowMeenaIsThat WhatAPartyPooper. If you can afford to come and buy a million-dollar home, and leave it empty for eight or 10 months at a time, then hey, you can afford to pay more, a surcharge, or a surtax Meena Wong. SCMP Vancouver mayoral candidate Meena Wong proposes tax on vacant homes Owners who leave their expensive homes empty most of the year should be willing to pay surcharge, Wong says. 173 Mister Obvious on 09 12 14 at 1 03 pm. My parents encouraged me to leave home at 16 and fend for myself. Similar story here At the age of 19, my father s message to me was this approximately this. Either prove you are on a path to independence through education which I will finance provided a reasonable job prospect exists or hit the road and make your own way, son. Perhaps foolishly, I chose to hit the road But understand me Dad wasn t my buddy , he was my father Big difference The prospect of living under the old man s roof any longer was unbearable to me Not that he was evil he was a fine man and a war hero as far as I m concerned but it was like living with the day-shift foreman down on the shop floor. I did low-paying grunt work for the next decade or so then paid my own way through school During that time I shared rent in low end accommodation with as many as three other fellows on their own quest for would have chosen to hang with in any other independence I can t say they were a lways people I circumstance. I guess was the kind of guy who prefers it the hard way although I have corrected that foolish attitude in my old age. The one thing I have the most difficulty conveying to young people today is how fierce the drive for independence was among my generation. Even if it were possible, sitting in one s parent s basement waiting for life to somehow begin was seen as a the seventh level of hell by all my contemporaries. 174 Mister Obvious on 09 12 14 at 1 07 pm. Correction of butchered paragraph in previous post. I did low-paying grunt work for the next decade or so then paid my own way through school During that time I shared rent in low end accommodation with as many as three other fellows on their own quest for independence I can t say they were always people I would have chosen to hang with in any other circumstance. For Ayn Rand Army and others interested. Ayn Rand s life, summarized in a web comic. I don t know enough to pick sides, posting for your enjoyment. 126 TakingResponsibility on 09 12 14 at 1 58 am What s actually wrong with inter-generational living I think it sad that birth, child-rearing, education, old-age, and even death have become Outsourced institutionalized Actually, most of us spend our working years in some institution or another We are all institutionalized debt slaves. Divide and conquer Each generation has to start from scratch Makes for a docile and scared worker Good for the bottom line. Some cultures are different but in mine at least, people get jealous and will try to cut you down if they see you rise above them Help you Please The worse boss I ve ever had was the same nationality I am She did everything to keep me down That s OK I returned the favor. Now, there is another side of the coin Sometimes kids are just lazy and entitled I worked for a startup Was employee 3, yey The CEO s son was a college flunkie and a pot head. But daddy kept saying that little Johnny 25ish flunked out of college because he was too smart and was getting bored You see, little Johnny wanted to study Computer Science but just couldn t handle the slow pace of a college education In fact, couldn t even register for class in time LOL. So, given that college was out of the question too smart his love of Computer Science and the fact that his dad owned a freaking startup in Silicon Valley, you would assume that little Johnny would spend all of his days working with his dad, learning from stupid people like me with 20 years of experience and 2 college degrees that s how stupid I am. Oh please Not once, did he show up in the office the whole time I was there. He still lives with mommy and daddy They just got the daughter 23 to move out She s a waitress in San Jose. 177 Sheane Wallace on 09 12 14 at 1 20 pm. 171 All markets are now risky. Not if you look at long term. You are missing one very important point velocity of money, it is at historical low Once it picks up and pick up it will we will see some inflation it could be significant but also even higher growth in the corporate earnings Most of the quality internationals that pay dividends are very well positioned on the world markets, so expect continues strength and growing earnings the rest of the world actually grows. Holding money in cash or bonds except for emergency cash or short term TIPS when inflation picks up is stupid. So thank you very much I will keep my stocks Even if the market corrects 30 chance of 20-25 a well diversified dividend based portfolio would shrink only by 10-12 The cost of selling now and then buying again at the eventual bottom presumably you get it exactly right is not justified by the risk. 178 Nature vs Nurture on 09 12 14 at 1 24 pm. OMG you fools are showing your age if you are 50 or over you have benefited from a different experience than the succeeding generations. You were raised by parents that experienced the great depression, a world war and a 1950 s conflict that still simmers today and constantly threatens to explode. You always knew where you stood in relation to the larger world, because competition in it s most basic form existed To wit, Sports Day , British Bulldog , Dodge Ball and other vicious games that we children just made up on the play field, with rules that we defined and actions that were allowed or not. At my elementary school a game was devised and played on the field farthest away from the prying eyes of adults called Creamo , anyone student could play, all were welcome, the only stipulation was you had to waive your right of complaint when something happened to you. Creamo was a hodgepodge of rugby, football, soccer, dodge ball, running, kicking, th rowing the ball through the goal posts Goals were important but if someone really got creamed , well that was excellent too The scrum was where the vicious action occurred and each and every person had to decide if they belonged in the scrum. Every person that went on the field acknowledged the inherent risk of getting Creamed and would deny all knowledge that such an activity actually existed. It wasn t exactly The Lord of the Flies , but it was good training Given the choice of Hopscotch or nearly killing each other, we chose to play the maiming game. Why Because children are just little animals and the basic instinct is inclined towards wildness and animal behavior Society s mandate is and has been to integrate this energy into more productive activities To make productive citizens out of the barbarians. It is through our barbarian behavior that we, in time, begin to understand and exercise control of our inate drives This used to be accomplished by a maiming injury acquired during play or by corporal punishment doled out by adults for partaking in maiming play. The net result was the experience of temporary pain, which conditioned us for future endeavours, some of which would also leave physical, emotional and psychic marks. In life, all good things must come to an end, and eventually the adults found out just what the hell was happening out there and stopped our fun. Succeeding generations have been nurtured , they will never know the joy of creaming a smaller guy on the field because that s always the rule, if you want to succeed, never try to cream someone outside of your weight class. In removing the painful experiences of childhood, we have created a class of individual that is currently incapable of exercising their own basic instincts. These individuals are not to be blamed for something that they were not allowed to experience. You better hope that they don t figure out just how rigged the game is. Bad behavior at 8 or 9 is one thing bad behavior in your twenties i s called A Revolution. 171 All markets. That s why I converted all my defined contribution pension holdings into money markets recently It s not much under 100k but there is too much risk for the potential reward left in the market I may be gambling, but since I do it to protect my assets and not to speculate, I agree to pay the price of forgone higher returns for the security that I got. 180 Sheane Wallace on 09 12 14 at 1 26 pm. Lets not forget also that the historical P E are from time when alternative investments government bonds actually paid positive interest that was much higher than the zero or even negative interest rates policies these days In absence of incentive to invest in bonds the stock markets will keep going higher and higher Dow 20 k is certainty, I am thinking more of Dow 30 k in the next 3-7 years Plan accordingly. By US law, Canadians born in the USA, who have not formally renounced US citizenship, are required to travel to USA on an American passport despite holding a Canadian passport. Until recently, US border guards rarely enforced this law, but this is starting to change with USA s recent attempts through FATCA to enforce citizenship based taxation on non-US residents Please warn any Canadian friends who were born in USA, travelling on a Canadian passport, that they may be queried at the border as to whether or not they are tax compliant with the IRS. USA requires annual tax reports and Foreign Bank Account Reports from those it considers to be US persons birth in USA, one or more American parents, snowbirds who overstay, green card holders even if they do not live in the USA and do not earn any US sourced income. 182 Drug Ford aka Al Haig on 09 12 14 at 1 32 pm. Settle down, I am in charge here. More to follow, Ford Nation. Garth, your regular deliveries will continue so don t worry There will be a slight price premium. 183 Sheane Wallace on 09 12 14 at 1 34 pm. bonds are actually called return free risk. Only government debt Garth. ps To all those who give the standard line about moving to Alberta Engineers are not somehow totally interchangeable You can t use an aerospace engineer in the oil patch that easily. Indeed, and great point There s huge unemployment underemployment in Canada s tech sector left by the departure of Nortel A large number of engineers with skills more specific to the telecom sector are still running around Canada, unemployed or underemployed, glutting up the resume submissions Even relatively basic minimally advertised positions in the telecom engineering sector are receiving in excess of 50 resumes from highly qualified and often extremely talented individuals. Its good that government didn t bail that bloated and somewhat fraudulently managed Nortel pig out in the early 2000s, but inflating almost a trillion dollars worth of CMHC subprime insured mortgage debt into the housing ma rket wasn t really a good answer either. RE 131 Comment from Porsche in response to Garth. Annual immigration us 0 7 of the population, without which we would have decline Garth. This country is getting pretty brown pretty fast. That was a terrible comment from Porsche that should have been deleted but I guess Garth left it there for him her to hang him herself I am ashamed to be Canadian and white when I see hear read things like that I work everyday with so-called brown people who, in addition, to be hard working, smart, humorous, attractive people, contribute so much to this society What does the skin color have to do with anything I can see this idiotic way of thinking is diminishing in the new generations, and that is a good thing My children seem to be virtually color-blind Nothing to do with this blog except for the fact that people who have not done too well in life even if they drive imaginary Porsche like to blame other people for their misfortunes Like coddled children adultette s now we are back on the topic of the blog Blame the renters, the owners, the public sector workers with fat pensions, the CHMC, Mark, whoever you want but it will not change the fact that you are the one who made the decisions that brought you where you are now I try to remain a silent observer and learn something, but that was really too much to let it go unnoticed. 21 Casual Observer. This was written during a time when the US was on the gold standard The US Gov t could not have engaged in the same amount of money printing that is going on throughout the world today. Of course they could, and they did The increase in monetary base during that time was absolutely unprecedented in US history And what do you think caused the credit bubble of the 20s anyways Newly found gold deposits. I had no idea FedEx drivers were homeless Garth. Good point Actually FedEx drivers are usually independent contractors who own their own trucks Some do hire employees do drive as some own multiple trucks and routes. I have heard also that a UPS driver can be a great gig. The harder and faster they work the more they get paid They are not stuck in an office They are free of bosses most of the day. Under employed teachers and Egyptologists might want to check it out. Definitely an honest way to earn a living Not much chance to slack off without getting noticed. doug ford to replace rob on TO mayor ballot. if the ford bros can t crash 416 than nothing can. 24 Doug in London. These Boomer parents should know better Having seen real estate corrections before I remember one in the early 1980s and another in the early 1990s they should be advising their Millennial kids that another is long overdue whether they live with their parents or not. We had one in 2008, before it was arrested by 0 interest rates and opening of mortgage floodgates This is the problem people have the attention span of a squirrel. 160 Keith on 09 12 14 at 11 52 am. Engineers are not somehow totally interchangeable You can t use an aerospace engineer in the oil patch that easilyplete BS from 160 Keith. Engineers ARE interchangeable based on their process-thinking education It s not the engineering degree specialization, it s the competencies that have been learned after graduation. 191 miketheengineer on 09 12 14 at 1 50 pm. You are 100 correct. You said, Engineers are not somehow totally interchangeable. In 2009, when the auto industry collapsed in Ontario, I thought about going out west to Alberta I had no contacts out there, no connection, no family So I applied to whatever I could find on the net that was advertising I had a Chemical Engineering Degree and a second one in Science Chemistry , and 15 years experience in Auto Manufacturing I could not get any responses to my applications, none In the year that I was out of work, I sent out around 2000 applications or more I lost count. You see in Alberta, they have programs, like Petroleum Engineer etc, and when they advertise for a position they are very specific and want the 10 out 10 candidate or the guy with the experience with rotating equipment, and they want like 10 years experience as a Class 4 Operating Engineer or starting up process units So they end up taking on the guy from the Arabic countries that com e here is newcomers who have this experience working in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere, that has this 10 years experience. It appears to me that manufacturing experience means nothing to the oil and gas industry. You see I was labelled the auto guy and they were looking for the oil guy I would have had better luck if I was welder or heavy truck driver. So I stayed in Ontario Hoo for me. p s I am gainfully employed now in manufacturing in Ontario, with a wonderful boss, and decent co-workers, with a job that actually has benefits I thank GOD, every day that I walk into this building for my job. perhaps on is housing a Renegade in their basement. Every boomer I know has spent most of the lives and earnings on ensuring their kids have the best of everything and never wanting for anything. This is funny because I was about to write in to state that I, as the child of Boomers, probably have gone a little too far in giving time and money to my own offspring because I had so little of both from Mom and D ad and Step Dad I did have a pretty good time of it until I was 9 at which point all hell broke loose with all the grown ups deciding that the family thing was a drag I had to grow up fend for myself and my brother We still had a roof over our heads and food but not much else Mom, are you reading this I hope not On second thought you d never recognize yourself anyway. Having parental units kind of abandon the family at such a young age scarred me Can ya tell as a result I do work very hard and am careful with money But also as a result I hate to see my own kid left to dangle if my young adult needs something I do what I can to help. Finally there is the very real, very relevant point that the economy is in the sh tter Housing and food cost a tremendous chunk of a person s income if he or she is making starter wages Add in transportation and perhaps a student loan payment and there s really no hope except to get used to doing the same thing every day until you die. I don t have to let my k id do that and so I won t Been there Struggled out of it sorta and am not enough of a queen bitch to watch someone I love hurt that way. Feeling like my dog just died. Stay strong Mr Ford. 171 All markets are now risky. Trying to time the market are we. History has shown a fool s errandplete BS from 160 Keith. Engineers ARE interchangeable based on their process-thinking education It s not the engineering degree specialization, it s the competencies that have been learned after graduation. Sure, we know that, as engineers Too bad HR personnel, who are in the position of screening the resumes and act as hiring managers don t This is why so many jobs apparently go unfilled, while people who could fill them complain that they don t receive legitimate consideration. Actually asking the on-the-ground engineers what skills and what qualifications are needed to really do a job seems to be an after-thought these days I remember during the dot-com boom, lots of Mechanical, and even Civil Engineers easily found work in the software computing field, but these days, it seems employers are notoriously inflexible and not really motivated to fill empty positions Instead, holding out for TFW s or for a perfect yet desperate for a low salary candidate to come along. I share the same undergrad as my brother Explain to me what work someone with in-depth education and internships in aerospace structures and modelling of heart valves would do out in Alberta. Sure, you can apply your skills to solving most engineering problems But whether an a petroleum equipment manufacturing company will actually recognize the usefulness of your skills is an altogether different matter. See post 191 by the miketheengineer Stories like that abound among engineers And his education is much closer to what is required in the O G sector than my brother was. Non-engineers simply don t get it The number of qualified engineers out there and the number of qualified foreign trained engineers coming here Very difficult for a young engineer to start out And this is after hearing all the lectures about how an Arts and Science degree is useless and how engineering leads to good jobs Most BBA BComm grads I know are better off than most engineers I know Far less workload, in university, and at work. Moreover, if you did get a job, they ll just use your supposed lack of experience to dramatically underpay you Starting salary for aerospace engineers at Bombardier is around 50K Most business majors who get a decent bank job downtown make more Hot realtor babes can pull in six figures. Canada hates engineers and technical talent. 199 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09 12 14 at 3 26 pm. 195 Smoking Man on 09 12 14 at 2 26 pm Feeling like my dog just died, Stay strong Mr Ford. OK Smoky heres the scoop, Rob out as Mayor, Doug in as Mayor, Rob going for council, Michael Ford or Mikey, as his uncles Rob and Doug call him is on his way to becoming a Toronto city councilor as well So there go have a beer and chill There s a whole lot of Fords parked in the driveway. 53 said PS My family is a microcosm of the cultural dichotomy my Western European parent was happy to kick us out at age 18, but my Asian parent said no, it s a waste of money Funnily enough, my Euro parent blamed my Asian parent for being too soft on us. WHICH IS WHY IT IS DIFFERENT HERE AS MUCH AS I HATE TO ADMIT IT. 202 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 09 12 14 at 4 06 pm. Canada hates engineers and technical talent. It certainly looks that way I m an IT worker who was fortunate to get into a public sector position relatively late in life The working conditions of IT people in corporations have been steadily degraded by outsourcing, immigration, and the TFW program. Annual immigration us 0 7 of the population, without which we would have decline Garth. This is not accurate We have a population of probably not more than 35 million we can only estimate I have learned as a public sector worker that there are no truly reliable figures on stuff like this Every year more than half a million newcomers enter Canada You have the 265,000 regular immigrants, you have approximately 200,000 Temporary Foreign Workers, you have about 100,000 international students , and there surely must be some illegals BTW the immigration and student figures are readily searchable on federal government websites, and TFW figures have be en reported many times by news media Commenters on this site have linked all this stuff before. There are also millions yes, millions of people who have Canadian citizenship and passports living outside the country in places like Lebanon and Hong Kong So while the exact figure cannot be determined from the low-quality data available, it s clearly more than 0 7 a year. The notion that without this influx we d have decline is also mistaken Heavy immigration more likely depresses family formation in the host population. What a dandy collection of anonymous paranoid xenophobes we have on this site Garth. Miketheengineer I had a Chemical Engineering Degree and a second one in Science Chemistry , and 15 years experience in Auto Manufacturing. What about the lithium ion battery revolution and companies like Tesla, electric bikes, scooters, solar, wind etc One would think there is plenty of opportunity and demand for engineering expertise Perhaps not in sticks and stones Canada but elsewhere. 26 For some reason I found the term adultettes hilarious. And re Garth s rebuke 46.The term adultettes seems too respectful How about adultescents or perhaps adultweenies. Then top it off with Yul Brynner s comments in the following clip Garth can be Yul up until the gun fight. As a prelude to a years-long decline Equities will likely correct and recover within a few months More importantly, financial assets are 100 liquid Real estate turns illiquid in a downturn Consequently, elevated risk Garth. Nobody sells house within months of purchase Risk is mitigated and smoothed over long period of time IE years. Btw you only loose money when down if you sell like any financial assets Even if prices stagnates you still win House is a utility How about that. Irrelevant when 92 leverage is used to buy houses as CMHC numbers published here show Nobody gets 92 margin to buy equities When house prices fall, you can be assured of a flood of emotional sellers people who bought for capital gains, not losse s Garth. 207 Just my 2 cents on 09 12 14 at 5 31 pm. I think Garth is absolutely right, 24 is an adult and should behave accordingly I see so many kids that age who have an expectation of adult rewards I m an adult, I can do what I want but who assume as few responsibilities as possible Parents who encourage this are doing their kid a great disservice We got flak from well-meaning friends and relatives who thought it was unfair to make a 10 year old make his bed before leaving for school and make his own lunch the night before We thought it taught time management and planning They thought it was mean that we said if he wanted extra stuff and things that he pick up a paper route We thought he should learn that stuff was not free and you had to be willing to work for it There was an expectation that he help out with whatever needed doing in the house, because he was part of a family unit and that everyone should do their part He had an allowance and was taught about credit, savings, debt etc but h is allowance was never tied to what he did in the house, nor would we ever dream of paying him to attain good marks in school When he graduated high school, he decided not to go to college right away, so we said sure, you can be home, but you must carry the equivalent of a full time job and you must pay rent, your own car insurance, buy your own clothes, etc I overheard a conversation where a friend asked him where his parents got off making him pay when he was just living at home and my son laughed and said they don t want me to be useless and not know how to take care of myself He got it We also figured doing menial labour in our small town would have him in college in less than a year and we were right While he thinks it s good to do what you must to pay your bills, he also didn t want a lifetime of it when there was an alternative. Fast forward to now, he is 22 and has been married for a year He finished his 3rd year of college last year, dropped out for a year and they saved money for his grad year, which he started this month In his year off, he worked 2 part-time jobs for minimum wage and he found there were lots of jobs that would put food on the table but they weren t fun or glamorous He worked in a feed store primarily and he said a lot of people his age won t take any old job to start out, and then they say there are no jobs In that one year off school, they saved enough to pay his tuition for the full year, they have money set aside for savings and they ve donated to charity They live in a basement suite close to the school and while they are very frugal, their life is very full with friends, dinners, pot lucks, bike rides, other sports, art and music and they don t seem to be deprived at all They don t have cable, share one old flip phone and he bikes to school When they got engaged, they sent me an Excel spreadsheet and asked if I could look over their budget for when they were married and see if it looked reasonable you can only imagine how happy it ma de me that they were thinking of things like that We always helped him when we could, but often our help came in the form of time spent talking and assuring him he had the ability to sort out his problem and kicking around ideas until he had come up with a resolution I think they have a great foundation for their marriage and future and that we would have robbed him greatly if we had simply handed him everything and given him the message that he was NOT capable and could not figure anything out unless it was provided by us. IsItJustMe OrIsThatLeaderIllustration LookingMoreDoggoneFlummoxed WithEachCTLF5. NoteToGT Just between the two of us, I thought the TeaserTrailer was outrageously GoodSport NoteToWhiteKat TrueEnough Even those without formal ties to UncleSam are occasionally obliged to navigate his bureaucratic maze something to do with W8-BEN s. The stock market doomers and conspiracy nuts make me laugh Why does the stock market go up even if 50 of people don t save Because the vast majority of stocks are held by the top 5 and corporations This makes sense since logically they have that much more money to save Nothing evil or sinister about that If there is a wideningn wage gap between the top and middle it follows that those top 5 stock purchases would drive shares up But it also means someone poorer can get their piece buy owning the shares too even if their demographics purchases are less substantial or influential on stock price As for the stock market crashing Meh I am a long ways from retirement and the stocks aren t a leveraged investment for me so no one is gonna force me t o liquidate them Unlike a mortgaged house or the small amount of stocks I buy on margin for entertainment purposes. Explain to me what work someone with in-depth education and internships in aerospace structures and modelling of heart valves would do out in Alberta. You or your bro might check out becoming a DAR or finding work as an aircraft structures engineer within a company that has received Transport Canada delegation as a DAO See pertinent links on Transport Canada s Delegations Information System web site, below. Or, check out working for an aircraft structural repair and or modification shop aka an Approved Aircraft Maintenance Organization AMO Aircraft modifications is a major part of the Canadian aviation industry A few of the major players in BC Kelowna Flightcraft, Cascade Aerospace and CHC Helicopters I m not sure who the main players in Alberta are maybe Kenn Borek Air In Ontario, there is Field Aviation, Voyageur Airways and Deca Aviation I believe the Midland, ON based co mpany, Avionics Design Services was still is looking for a structures engineer for its office out at YVR Vancouver Richmond airport See link here. These companies and or individuals are given a Delegation of Authority by Transport Canada to make findings of compliance to the pertinent airworthiness requirements, for aircraft modifications Specialized work knowledge that the not taught in engineering schools see exceptions below , meaning there aren t a lot of competent engineers working in it compared to other engineering disciplines Hence, it seems jobs in the field are somewhat age-proof at least, if you re able to work for the smaller companies mod shops You don t get the knowledge and experience from engineering school except perhaps if you graduated from one with an aeronautical engineering discipline like U of T, Carleton U or Ryerson U and or had specialization within a Mech Eng program On top of those places, Boeing offers its own structures engineering courses at your or your e mployer s expense, of course. See the TCCA link above and or contact your local TCCA Aircraft Certification Office Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Moncton for more information You would have to take TCCA s Aircraft Certification Specialty Course paid for by yourself or by your employer in order to eventually get delegation as a DAR or as an Authorized Person within a DAO Also, TCCA itself was recently hiring Aircraft Certification Engineers with specialization in among other areas , aircraft structures The thing about working for them is, you will be removed from being a hands-on engineer and would be a paper-shuffling bureaucrat although a well-paid one with benefits pension Still, the work can be interesting if you can tolerate the politics and bureaucracy. Best of success since I don t believe in luck. 74 Smoking Man on 09 11 14 at 9 08 pm It s what being alive is all about. You think that being alive is about feeding your ego It s actually about putting your ego aside, and learning to love the people around you Stop trying to pursue your own selfish desires This will be your greatest challenge. We should shall not judge and brag It is different now it is not the 50 s, 60 s. 142 Inglorious Investor you are right on the spot The public sector worker should not get more pay benefits than the private sector The private sector create wealth money through goods and services which pay taxes whereas, the government wealth is obtained by taxes. Do you really believe that neither my brother or I know how the aerospace industry works or that we need advice internet randoms. I m in the RCAF He did find work in his field at a well known aircraft engine maker in Toronto. The point of my narrative was to illustrate the very real challenges that young people experience today The old line that They should be independent And some internet links are hardly relevant The tone of Boomers like Garth and yourself comes off as, Let them eat cake. I hope Gen Y remembers this when the Boomers start agitating politically for higher state pensions No issues taking care of my parents Other boomers Couldn t give s fig. 214 Rabi Dmangycur 35 on 09 12 14 at 11 44 pm. 35 Happy Renting re Ayn Rand cartoon link. Thanx for the post I am a big Ayn Rand fan and have all her books and plays and have read all her newsletters She must have been extremely intelligent but not that smart the two are not mutually inclusive. I love this blog site and have read all the archives up to Nov 2012 so far. I appreciate the task GT has undertaken armed only with a whip and a chair I understand the fact that very few seem to understand the fundamentals Garth is sharing with readers, but many are quick to argue with the conclusions. It appears Alan Greenspan fell into the same trap that ensnared Ayn in the end an over reliance on intelligence and an under reliance on smarts. A common trap of highly intelligent people. Can anyone see the logic flaws in this. Does a carpenter employed by the private sector create wealth while a carpenter employed by government never creates wealth What if the pay and benefits and productivity were the same. NO the govt does not create wealth Ever T hey build crap they don t need most of the time The private sector carpenter creates wealth by being employed and whose paycheck goes into the economy and whose TAXES PAY govt workers Govt workers are paid with taxes so all they are doing is recycling money created by the private sector. And in today s economy the private sector is more pissed off than they have ever been as the cost of living keeps going up despite the lies by the govt, meanwhile the govt workers keep getting bigger and bigger paychecks and pensions that go with them. I thought you were smarter than this Shawn and beware, class warfare is soon to come. 213 Keith assuming you come back to this particular post. I didn t intend or think my tone came across as Let them eat cake Was not my intention Was only trying to offer some help food for thought from my scope of knowledge experience, for what it is isn t worth, since I m in a similar situation as yours engineer electrical electronics , specialized aerospace aviation , middle-aged, technically obsolete. Tried to move away from aviation back in 07 by moving to Alberta when the demand for engineers and labour in general was virtually being hyped as they ll hire anyone with a pulse Turned out not to be so naturally Turned out that despite the whining in Alberta that companies can t find enough qualified people, they still cherry-pick who they ll hire or even interview Job prospects for electrical engineers in Alberta were are great if you have background and Canadian experience in electrical power generation, distribution and substation design, or instrumentation and controls I C systems S eems to be a similar situation in Ontario today, except instead of instrumentation and control jobs, seems to be more focus on automation and robotics programming jobs for EE s With the loss of manufacturing jobs in Ontario in recent years, darned if I know what they expect to automate. I thought with my background in FMEA systems safety analysis I could transfer over to the I C field, what with that field s need for process control hazard HAZOP analysis, safety risk management, safety integrity level analysis, etc Had one interview with an I C consulting engineering company that said they farmed that safety analysis stuff out to another party, and as far as the I C techie stuff they did, well, they didn t see a fit within their organization for me and couldn t justify taking on someone from outside their industry because of the implications to how much they would have to bill their customer i e higher bill because of my learning curve Had one agency tell me the engineering companies pr efer to hire the young engineering grads fresh out of school because they can pay them peanuts and train i e beat them into shape , rather than hire us older dudes who have some proven ability to think Calgary Herald ran an article at the time profiling how oil patch companies were screaming they didn t have enough people, yet were picky about who they hired because after working so hard to earn their good reputation, they were wary about damaging that reputation by hiring just anyone Blah, blah, blah. I came to the realization that the dark secret not told to undergrad students at engineering school is that once you get your first professional engineering job, you ll likely be pigeon-holed in that particular type of work or industry The problem seems especially acute for electrical electronics engineers since the field is so diverse and changes so rapidly, particularly in anything to do with electronics and software. And that s another kicker the electronics industry in Canada that exis ted 20 to 30 years ago, no longer exists What once seemed like the bright shining star in Canada s economic horizon, has essentially vaporized think Mitel, Nortel, Jerrold, many others I ve long since forgotten about In BC, electronics companies that existed in the 80 s and 90 s are gone with just a remnant of one or two that somehow reincarnated themselves. Then, to complicate matters, the electronics industry has shifted more toward software engineering and digital complex programmable logic devices CPLDs and gate arrays FPGAs over the past 20 years One needs to learn use software tools VHDL, Verilog to design the hardware logic used to program the chips. During the same time frame, along has come the growth of the internet and IT, cell phones, wi-fi, CDMA already obsolete , CDMA-II, HSPA, LTE, and Whoa Is Me In the past, one specialized in either hardware or software Today, seems companies want a person who can do it all hardware, software, IT internet and radio frequency RF circuit d esign, which is a specialty all its own All the while, you re supposed to keep up with this stuff What the frig kind of life is that, trying to chase after and keep up with this stuff, particularly if you re a family person I ve come to the conclusion that the career counselors and or HR people who concocted the idea of transferable skills don t know their heads from their butts when they try to apply their transferable skills schlock to engineers and most anyone else who works in a specialized profession. On top of the above, if you happen to be a software engineer or work in IT, your knowledge half-life is now down to only about 18 months to two years according to IEEE and one or two other articles I ve read By age 35, you re too old to work as a software or IT engineer, at least, in the U S This is another dark secret that probably isn t being explained to the young engineering undergrads. I concur with one of the other previous comments that depending on one s area of specialty, Cana da isn t a very good place to have an engineering career But with the off-shoring of industry and jobs in the U S over the past 20 years, according to blog comments I ve read, it sounds like the situation in the U S isn t all that great either again, depending on area of specialty. 218 liquidincalgary on 09 14 14 at 6 52 am. 21 Casual Observer says. because of the collapse in the velocity of money. collapse with housing now employing more than O G, how has velocity collapsed houses changing hands so frequently, are these not the definition of velocity of money. check your definition, then re-read your comment and my response to it please. Wishing Phil and all fellow PSW members a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year 2017 Thanks to all of you for your insights and comments which help make me a better investor every day Wishing everybody the best of luck for 2017.Phil, I ve got to give you props on the ICE spread play Tremendous call I jumped in on Friday when you made the recommendation and closed out today Nice 57 return 2,300 over a mere 3 trading days This is why I dig your site. Thanks Phil, for banging the table on getting short and getting to cash Usually when this happens in the market I am freaking out but I actually made money this week thanks to you That HOV trade was a great way to re-deploy some of my cash. Phil, I was so impressed with the personal note in the comments that I went ahead and paid for a months trial of premium that I have been on the fence for awhile about Just reading the comments makes me already glad for the purchase. I ve recently done exactly what Phil described I upgraded my ability to trade the IRA acct by transferring acct from TDA to TOS TDA would not allow spreads TOS does Neither will allow naked options With spreads I am able to buy calls or puts several months out then sell front month calls or puts over and over This allows me to collect premium, which is, of course, the goal This wasn t an original idea Phil put me onto it Since the transfer I ve substantially increased my performance in the IRA. Took profit on QQQ 57 Puts, bot 40 at 0 07, sold 20 for 0 15 and 20 for 0 32 Thank, Phil. I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving but well worth it Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children s college funds and our retirement. Thanks for the oil tip Phil Bot Love us or leave, with your money back Click here to become a part of our growing community and learn how to stop gambling with your investments We will teach you to BE THE HOUSE Not the Gambler. Click here to see some testimonials from our members. Great calls this week. Phil, You were on the today with your calls almost exactly on the turns Krap kuhn krup Thai for thank you very much. I picked up one of your recommended Gold plays, the July ABX 30s and sold the Feb 35s, which are now mostly intrinsic value Is it time to roll these to the March 37 50s, or should I wait this spike out. Fed days are fun Just for grins I decided to see how much money I could make in two clicks I bought DIA calls right when the surge started and then sold them the minute they hit my account Net gain of 20 in 20 seconds Can t do that very often. Phil CLK4 Perfect Saw the answer 1 min after my post out with 740 on two contracts Thanks again for the education. I started with 250,000 in cash as of Oct 1 and have realized gains of 81,000 thru close of business And that s in an IRA with no margin or naked trades Whenever you are in Argentina or Chile I owe you a drink I m looking forward to it. Phil - I m with you just little bit longer than a month and you can not imagine how happy I am now, and not just because my P L improved and I m sure that it will be even better , but I found that the worst thing in trader s carrier is a LONELINESS Here I found so many bright good guys, I looked for this service for years THANK YOU AND TAKE GOOD CARE OF YOURSELF BECAUSE I PLAN TO STAY HERE AND RIDE THIS CREASY MARKET WITH YOU FOR ANOTHER 20-30 YEARS. I have followed a lot of Phil s picks over the last several years and made money using the exact option strategies he outlines Of all the contributors on SA, he offers the most actual and ready to implement advice that has put money in my account Many of us on SA actually are sad when we don t see Phil s postings for an extended period. I have been a member for over six years and I still learn something new every day This site gives you the skills to trade without having to be spoon fed More importantly it teaches you about risk which is WAY more important than profit Honestly, it is not a get rich quick scheme. GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15 on the options And lots of them Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well. Phil fantastic call on the markets I owe you BIG thanks and have a great weekend. Thank God for Phil A few months ago April I didn t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked Now I am putting on 5 1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water. Phil Eric Cwan Matt Cap etc - I ve learned so much from all of you and want to thank you I m up 23 this month thanks to all of your advice - Thanks, guys. Gel1 I ve been here 6 months, mostly watching and learning Lots of smart people on the site and I ve learned a lot from Phil and many others Inflan - I have to trump your sentiments regarding the wisdom of the board I have to thank Phil and the many contruibutors for a 80 profit for 2009 I have learned a lot and am still learning even occasionally about political issues - ha. From following Phil I have opened up BCS and occasion will strangle some stocks I will occasionally hedge using an ETF ultra I have a big take down occasionally but so far I am way ahe ad of the S boy did they run a squeeze on everyone there made me sweat scaling helped I think AMZN has an 85 handle tomorrow maybe lower. Phil, you are the man My positions in ABX and CLF are up massively this year, and doing very nicely with USO and UNG TSR is another winner Just waiting for the TSLA short now. Rookie IRA Investor. Phil, Thanks for the long calls 85 on AAPL A quick 4900 Paid for my subscription. Phil is a fundamentalist to his fingertips His ability to value a stock goes well beyond p e, as he understands the essence of many businesses, what gives them value and how they make their money As such, his recommendations are invaluable to a investor who takes a value-oriented approach. Phil - Wow wow The vision and inate grasp of the options world you posess is rather staggering It s this type of experience that I really hope to develop I m afraid I still can t see the moves, but I WILL learn I cannot thank you enough for the patience, knowledge and effort you put into this pla ce Please keep it going. Cory Booker for President Thanks for all the good futures guidance Phil Having one of my best months yet Account is up 75 YTD. I have learned more about options in the past 2 weeks as a full PSW member that the previous 5 yrs of making more bad than good option plays The educational material alone is worth several times the price of admission I have had an expensive education on what not to do - what is past is past - I am looking forward to profitable fun future. I have been with this site since the beginning and i have learned more the past 3 years than the previous 10 Information and great commentary are abound The traders on the site are second to none and my portfolio has benefited greatly. Newer member here, but just wanted to say thank you too I ve learned so much and I hope you ll be around for a long time helping us learn along the way. I think that Phil is super, I am up 39 3 YTD Thank you for your kindness and the opportunity to observe Phil from February. P hil TNA On Monday you put out the TNA BCS 41 47 As I mentioned I work during market hours so on Tuesday morning on my way out the door premarket I put in an advanced TOS 1st trigger sequence order to fill the BCS I can control the entry using this method vs the vertical entry that TOS allows for the BCS I filled the June 41 long call but never filled the 47 short call I let that ride into today OMG TNA popped 7 5 the 3 60 entry is almost a double Tomorrow will be a OCO bracket to get out of TNA before Ben speaks I should be able to preserve 85 100 on the trade For the income portfolio plays in my IRA s, doing very well I do like collecting premium Well done and thanks. Boring trading Phil Thanks to PSW, my yearly covered-writes are on pace for 15 Add the long puts and well over 20 and I look at it once a day and never lose sleep over it Actually doing better than my trading account at this point Thanks, summer 2013 Anyway, the point is that anyone with enough money would be wise to do t he 20 40 stuff and do trading as a hobby. I am a Registered Nurse, so is my wife We work hard to take care of seven kids that are the joy of our lives The cost for a basic membership is ALOT from our our monthly budget of spending and saving but well worth it Phil has allowed me to really ramp up the savings we put away for our children s college funds and our retirement. Thank you so much for the good daily news in review Phil I love your commentary It is such a breath of fresh air in the smog cluttered news networks. 30 Billion that s bound to get their attention. According to the WSJ , the Federal Housing Finance Agency is set to file suits against more than a dozen big banks, accusing them of misrepresenting the quality of mortgage securities they assembled and sold at the height of the housing bubble The suits, which are expected to be filed in the coming days in federal court, are aimed at Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, among others, according to three individuals briefed on the matter. The suits stem from subpoenas the finance agency issued to banks a year ago If the case is not filed Friday, they said, it will come Tuesday, shortly before a deadline expires for the housing agency to file claims arguing the banks, which assembled the mortgages and marketed them as securities to investors, failed to perform the due diligence required under securities law and missed evidence that borrowers incomes were inflated or falsified When many borrowers were unable to pay their mortgages, the securities backed by the mortgages quickly lost value. Fannie and Freddie lost more than 30 billion, in part as a result of the deals, losses that were borne mostly by taxpayers In July, the agency filed suit against UBS, another major mortgage securitizer, seeking to recover at least 900 million, and the individuals with knowledge of the case said the new litigation would be similar in scope. Tim Rood, who worked at Fannie Mae until 2006 and is now a partner at the Collingwood Group, which advises banks and servicers on housing-related issues, agrees with what I told Members in last night s chat. While I believe that F H F A is acting responsibly in its role as conservator, I am afraid that we risk pushing these guys off of a cliff and we re going to have to bail out the banks again. In other words MADNESS What was the point of spending Trillions of Dollars bailing out the Banks if you are going to turn around and sue them for 30Bn and drop their stock price another T rillion, causing them to need another bailout. Perhaps this is the denouement of a week of scary market rumors that seem to have been. You must login to see all of Phil s posts To read the rest of this article now, along with Phil s live intra-day comments, live trading ideas, Phil s market calls, additional member comments, and other members-only features - Subscribe to Phil s Stock World by clicking here To signup for a free trial membership, click here.404 means the file is not found If you have already uploaded the file then the name may be misspelled or it is in a different folder. Other Possible Causes. You may get a 404 error for images because you have Hot Link Protection turned on and the domain is not on the list of authorized domains. If you go to your temporary url. username and get this error, there maybe a problem with the rule set stored in an file You can try renaming that file to and refreshing the site to see if that resolves the issue. It is also possible that you have inad vertently deleted your document root or the your account may need to be recreated Either way, please contact your web host immediately. Are you using WordPress See the Section on 404 errors after clicking a link in WordPress. Missing or Broken Files. When you get a 404 error be sure to check the URL that you are attempting to use in your tells the server what resource it should attempt to request. In this example the file must be in publichtml example Example. Notice that the CaSe is important in this example On platforms that enforce case-sensitivity e xample and E xample are not the same locations. For addon domains, the file must be in and the names are case-sensitive. Broken Image. When you have a missing image on your site you may see a box on your page with with a red X where the image is missing Right click on the X and choose Properties The properties will tell you the path and file name that cannot be found. This varies by browser, if you do not see a box on your page with a red X try right clicking on the page, then select View Page Info, and goto the Media Tab. In this example the image file must be in publichtml cgi-sys images. Notice that the CaSe is important in this example On platforms that enforce case-sensitivity PNG and png are not the same locations. When working with WordPress, 404 Page Not Found errors can often occur when a new theme has been activated or when the rewrite rules in the file have been altered. When you encounter a 404 error in WordPress, you have two options for correcting it. Option 1 Correct the Permalinks. Log in to WordPress. From the left-hand navigation menu in WordPress, click Settings Permalinks Note the current setting If you are using a custom structure, copy or save the custom structure somewhere. Select Default. Click Save Settings. Change the settings back to the previous configuration before you selected Default Put the custom structure back if you had one. Click Save Settings. This will reset the permalinks and fix the issue in many c ases If this doesn t work, you may need to edit your file directly. Option 2 Modify the File. Add the following snippet of code to the top of your file. BEGIN WordPress IfModule modrewrite c RewriteEngine On RewriteBase RewriteRule - L RewriteCond - f RewriteCond - d RewriteRule L IfModule End WordPress. If your blog is showing the wrong domain name in links, redirecting to another site, or is missing images and style, these are all usually related to the same problem you have the wrong domain name configured in your WordPress blog. The file contains directives instructions that tell the server how to behave in certain scenarios and directly affect how your website functions. Redirects and rewriting URLs are two very common directives found in a file, and many scripts such as WordPress, Drupal, Joomla and Magento add directives to the so those scripts can function. It is possible that you may need to edit the file at some point, for various section covers how to edit the file in cPanel, but not what may need to be changed You may need to consult other articles and resources for that information. There are Many Ways to Edit a File. Edit the fil e on your computer and upload it to the server via FTP. Use an FTP program s Edit Mode. Use SSH and a text editor. Use the File Manager in cPanel. The easiest way to edit a file for most people is through the File Manager in cPanel. How to Edit files in cPanel s File Manager. Before you do anything, it is suggested that you backup your website so that you can revert back to a previous version if something goes wrong. Open the File Manager. Log into cPanel. In the Files section, click on the File Manager icon. Check the box for Document Root for and select the domain name you wish to access from the drop-down menu. Make sure Show Hidden Files dotfiles is checked. Click Go The File Manager will open in a new tab or window. Look for the file in the list of files You may need to scroll to find it. To Edit the File. Right click on the file and click Code Edit from the menu Alternatively, you can click on the icon for the file and then click on the Code Editor icon at the top of the page. A dialogue box may appear asking you about encoding Just click Edit to continue The editor will open in a new window. Edit the file as needed. Click Save Changes in the upper right hand corner when done The changes will be saved. Test your website to make sure your changes were successfully saved If not, correct the error or revert back to the previous version until your site works again. Once complete, you can click Close to close the File Manager window.